Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 260234
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
934 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016
The showers and thunderstorms that developed this afternoon
continue to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. A few
showers continue east of a Temple to Terrell line as of 930 PM.
Have left 20 percent POPs area wide for the overnight period just
in case there is some redevelopment. North and Central Texas is
sandwiched between an upper level ridge over the Four Corners
area and another upper level ridge over the southeastern United
States. Once again tomorrow expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop around midday as temperatures approach
the mid 90s. Gusty winds, locally heavy rain that may result in
flooding and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be the main
weather hazards again tomorrow afternoon and early evening.
/ISSUED 648 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
The scattered showers and thunderstorms that developed this
afternoon will decrease in areal coverage after sunset. Have just
left a TEMPO -shra in the Metroplex TAF sites through 01z. For
Waco have placed 6sm -shra and vcts through 02z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop again Tuesday after 17z.
For now have just placed VCSH in the Metroplex TAFs from 20z to
00z and VCTS in the Waco TAF from 19z to 00z. Outside of
thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions with east to southeast winds
5 to 10 knots.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
A large swath of deep Gulf moisture has invaded North and Central
Texas today in response to a slow-moving inverted trough which has
finally worked its way in from the east. This is all occurring as
an upper level ridge which brought the triple digit heat over the
weekend retrogrades westward into the 4-corners region. With the
shear axis aloft and a moist and unstable airmass now in place,
the ingredients for diurnal convection will come together each
day across the forecast area for most of this week.
A deck of mid level clouds which moved overhead this morning
prolonged the onset of storms today (compared to what earlier
guidance indicated), but once the mid 90s convective temps were
reached we have seen scattered convection bubbling across the
region. We should continue to see a gradual increase in coverage
through late afternoon, before the peak heating hours wane and
storms taper off. One concern with these storms will be locally
heavy rainfall and possible flooding due to the high moisture
environment in place and slow southwest cell motion. Fortunately,
it appears that the flood threat would remain isolated due to
the scattered and pulse nature of the thunderstorm activity. An
additional concern will be downburst winds as occasionally intense
cores collapse on themselves. An isolated damaging wind threat
cannot be ruled out, though the vast majority of this afternoon`s
storms should remain sub-severe.
Convection will begin to wane this evening with the loss of
surface heating, and any activity during the overnight hours
should remain isolated in nature. Warm and humid conditions will
prevail overnight with above-normal low temperatures expected.
With high dewpoints and light winds, air quality will become an
issue during the day on Tuesday. The TCEQ has gone ahead and
issued an Ozone Action Day for the Metroplex for Tuesday. Showers
and storms should begin to develop again during the afternoon
hours with brief heavy rain and gusty winds being the main
concern. Convection will be scattered in nature, and any flooding
threat should be limited to small lines or clusters in the
vicinity of outflow mergers.
Little change in the weather pattern is expected through the end
of the work week with primarily diurnally driven convection
expected each day. Activity should remain scattered and POPs will
generally range from 30 to 50 percent. By Saturday, the upper
level ridge to our west will begin to once again expand eastward
into the Southern Plains. Low POPs will be kept across the eastern
half of the forecast area over the weekend before hot and dry
weather returns area-wide early next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 98 79 97 79 / 20 30 10 30 20
Waco 74 99 76 95 78 / 40 40 20 40 20
Paris 74 96 76 94 75 / 20 30 10 30 20
Denton 76 96 77 95 77 / 20 30 10 30 20
McKinney 76 96 76 96 77 / 20 30 10 30 20
Dallas 76 98 79 97 79 / 20 30 10 30 20
Terrell 75 97 76 94 77 / 20 30 10 30 20
Corsicana 75 97 76 94 76 / 40 40 20 40 20
Temple 75 96 74 94 76 / 50 50 20 40 20
Mineral Wells 75 98 75 96 76 / 20 30 10 30 20