Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 291822 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 124 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT JACK...PALO PINTO...
EASTLAND...STEPHENS AND YOUNG COUNTIES THROUGH 03Z/10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. AS NOTED ON MY EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
RIPE WITH MOISTURE/SHEAR/AND INSTABILITY FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.

ALL INTERESTS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM NOW THROUGH MID EVENING. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
DISCRETE IN NATURE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES DURING PRIME
AFTERNOON HEATING AND IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS. BY EARLY
EVENING...STORMS SHOULD MORPH INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR A
BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF I-35/35E. EVEN
SO...MESO-LOW TYPE TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH
SURFACE DEW PTS AND LOW LCL/S. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A
BONHAM...ROCKWALL...CORSICANA TO HEARNE LINE WHERE 1-2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IT/S A LITTLE LATE IN THE GAME FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO WATCHED FOR HYDROLOGIC
WARNINGS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS...INCLUDING
TORNADOES.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN.
CURRENTLY MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CAPE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2500J/KG. LATEST RADAR DATA IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AND IN THE VICINITY OF WACO.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION..SOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ACT TAF SITES
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

50


&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECASTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD...ALONG
WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/35W. A
STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT MIDDAY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW
AND TRIPLE-POINT WAS NOTED FROM SNYDER TO SEYMOUR...WITH A WARM
FRONT TAILING BACK ESE ALONG A BRIDGEPORT/BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...
TO COOPER/SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A DRYLINE TAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALREADY BULGING EAST TOWARD ABILENE IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG
AFTERNOONHEATING TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE BY 2 PM CDT AND AFTER FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-35 IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. INITIALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOW LCL/S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE DEW PT TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH AND IN THE LOWER-MID 70S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIG WILD CARD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG DISCRETE STORMS WILL
OCCUR...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OCCURS QUICKLY AT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND MAY RESULT IN INFLOW INTERRUPTION WITH IF STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER.

IF ACTIVITY BECOMES TOO WIDESPREAD TOO FAST...THEN DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR
LEWPS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHING BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BELOW CLOUD BASE FOR POTENTIAL TORNADOES.
SEVERAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS ARE SENDING UP SPECIAL MIDDAY SOUNDINGS
TO ASSESS OUR ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL AND THE FEELING IS THIS
COULD BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY.

AFTER COLLABORATION...THE ENHANCED RISK WAS EXTENDED SOUTH ALL
THE WAY INTO EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO THE
STRONG HODOGRAPHS AND INSTABILITY. ALL PARTIES SHOULD BE ON HIGH
ALERT BEGINNING AFTER 2 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR E/SE COUNTIES WITH THE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THOUGH LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME AGGRAVATION OF RIVER
FLOODING THROUGH RUN-OFF ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE TRINITY AND
SABINE BASINS. THE MID-LOWER BRAZOS COULD SEE SOME EFFECTS AS
WELL.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    65  80  59  78  58 /  40  10   5   5  10
WACO                64  83  59  80  58 /  50  20  10   5  10
PARIS               65  78  58  79  56 /  70  30  10   5  10
DENTON              61  79  55  76  55 /  40  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            63  79  57  77  56 /  50  10  10   5  10
DALLAS              65  82  60  79  58 /  50  10  10   5  10
TERRELL             65  81  58  79  58 /  60  20  10   5  10
CORSICANA           66  83  61  80  60 /  60  20  10   5  10
TEMPLE              64  83  61  81  60 /  50  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS       58  79  55  75  55 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

50/05


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