Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 282044
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS NOTED BY THE 18Z FWD
SOUNDING WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW
IS FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE EARLY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
PRODUCERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE WATCH WILL START AT 6 PM
TONIGHT AND RUN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WEST TEXAS STORMS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SQUALL LINE COULD
ADVANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE FRIDAY MORNING AND LEAVE MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IN SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/COOL AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE GULF. THIS SHOULD BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
CUT OFF LOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND PARKS IT NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN
VERIFIES IT WOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND CONFINE THEM ONLY TO THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.
OVERALL...NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ONE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO
ARKANSAS...WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION. WE EXPECT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES STEADILY EAST ACROSS THAT
PART OF REGION. THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY ORGANIZED
00-02Z THIS EVENING...STILL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT
LOCAL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR 2 LATER AT KACT...BEFORE ACCELERATING
EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WACO AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  86  67  81  68 /  70  60  60  60  30
WACO, TX              73  83  66  82  63 /  60  60  30  60  40
PARIS, TX             70  82  68  81  64 /  50  70  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            70  83  66  78  62 /  70  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  85  65  79  61 /  60  60  60  60  30
DALLAS, TX            72  86  69  80  65 /  60  60  60  60  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  69  83  64 /  50  60  50  60  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  83  68  82  66 /  50  60  30  60  40
TEMPLE, TX            71  81  67  83  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  82  65  79  61 /  70  40  60  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-
174-175.


&&

$$

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