Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 291744 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND NORTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING PUSH ON FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS HAVE ALREADY ENSUED...AND WITH STRONGER
WINDS APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA...PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR 30KTS. WITH THE DIRECTION NEARLY DUE NORTH...ANY
CROSSWIND ISSUES WILL BE LIMITED TO LOVE FIELD AND DFW DIAGONALS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING TO THE EAST AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE
ADVERTISED RAIN EVENT MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT 10 AM...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM CANTON TO
CORSICANA TO JUST NORTH OF KILLEEN. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS HAD
SHIFTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
AND WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED AROUND WACO...TEMPLE...AND PALESTINE HAS
NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED AT MID MORNING.

AN UPDATED FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT THIS MORNING. THE UPDATE
FEATURED MINOR CHANGES TO SKY CONDITION AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WERE
STILL RISING INTO THE 60S WITH FULL SUNSHINE BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE
RED RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S AROUND WACO...CENTERVILLE...AND
PALESTINE.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT THIS
WEEKEND. THE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS MORNING IS A CONVINCING SIGNAL THAT A PERIOD
OF DAMP WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. 09/GP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TAHLEQUAH
OKLAHOMA /KTQH/...TO ADA OKLAHOMA /KADA/...TO BOWIE /KOF2/ TO
SWEETWATER /KSWW/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE BY
DAYBREAK...AND TO SOUTHEAST OF A PALESTINE TO GEORGETOWN LINE BY
MID AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE FRONT PASSES. DESPITE DECENT
INSOLATION TODAY /WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS/...THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SHERMAN TO GRAHAM AREA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE TEMPLE TO
PALESTINE AREA.

THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER
SUNSET. WE WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

ALL OF THE MAIN COMPUTER MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SO HAVE DONE LIKEWISE IN THE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES...AND SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HIGHS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 40S TO MID 50S
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
ON MONDAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY BRING SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  39  54  42  49 /   5   0   5  20  70
WACO, TX              71  41  56  42  54 /   5   5  10  20  70
PARIS, TX             65  34  53  38  48 /   5   0   5  20  40
DENTON, TX            66  36  53  40  48 /   5   0   5  30  70
MCKINNEY, TX          66  36  53  39  50 /   5   0   5  20  70
DALLAS, TX            67  39  54  42  51 /   5   0   5  20  70
TERRELL, TX           68  37  55  40  52 /   5   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         69  40  55  41  54 /   5   0   5  20  50
TEMPLE, TX            71  42  55  42  53 /   5   5  10  30  70
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  52  40  47 /   5   5  10  40  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/09





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