Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 212146
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS TWO VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHS AFFECT THE REGION. APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HARD TO COME BY.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD FIELD OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS HAS PARTIALLY ERODED ALONG ITS WESTERN
FLANKS TODAY. THIS GRADUAL WEST TO EAST CLEARING TREND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PERHAPS APPROACHING I-35
BEFORE CALLING IT A NIGHT. WHERE CLEARING DOES OCCUR AROUND
SUNSET...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK
SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT AREAL EXTENT AND
INTENSITY. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AND DRY
ADVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT MOST OF THE
REST OF THE STRATO-CU FIELD...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE MUCH OF
THE DAY (ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35) TO ACCOMPLISH THIS TASK. HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE (THRU INCREASED CIRRUS AND
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS) SHOULD ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST...AND THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK...WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ALSO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. ALL MODELS...AND NOTABLY
THE EUROPEAN AND TTU WRF...EVOLVE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
MOISTURE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. MUCH OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONFINED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF
I-35...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
IN NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THE RAIN THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER STEADY WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR ON THE HEELS OF THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM...WITH CHRISTMAS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WARM...BREEZY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. ANOTHER LONG-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SET UP SHOP BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER...BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT AND A NEW ROUND OF
NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS.

BRADSHAW

66/25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILINGS...WINDS SHIFTING ON MONDAY.

SOUTH WINDS HAVE HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 50F AT MIDDAY.
BUT THESE SAME WINDS ARE ALSO CONTINUALLY REPLENISHING THE RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FOR
DAYS. CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 2000FT...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
UNLIKELY TO LOSE THEIR GRIP TODAY. EVEN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS...WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SIGNIFICANTLY...CEILINGS
REMAIN BELOW 2000FT. AGREE WITH CWSU THAT THE MESOSCALE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH ARE CLOSELY MIRRORING CURRENT CONDITIONS...ARE
LIKELY GIVING A MORE ACCURATE (AND ALSO MORE PESSIMISTIC)
OUTLOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN THE GFS.

IN ADDITION TO BEING OVERLY OPTIMISTIC TODAY...GFS GUIDANCE
REMAINS BULLISH WITH THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ON MONDAY AND A CORRESPONDING EVACUATION OF THE STRATUS
DECK. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING
ON TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND PAST DAYBREAK MONDAY. CURRENT TAF FAVORS THE CONSENSUS
(PERSISTENCE). BUT IN ANY EVENT...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
VEER IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
SCATTERING LOW CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS MAY BECOME
NEARLY DUE WEST AROUND MIDDAY...BUT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS SHOULD
NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND ISSUES. FOR SIMPLICITY...AND
BECAUSE OF MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACT...DID NOT INCLUDE A SEPARATE LINE
TO ADDRESS THIS.

FROPA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW
TAF. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NO THUNDER
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. POSTFRONTAL
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING TUESDAY.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  66  45  51  35 /  10   5  30  30   5
WACO, TX              48  69  46  52  34 /   5   5  20  30   5
PARIS, TX             46  61  45  50  34 /  10  10  30  40  10
DENTON, TX            46  65  42  49  34 /  10   5  30  30   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  65  43  49  34 /  10   5  30  30   5
DALLAS, TX            48  66  46  51  36 /  10   5  30  30   5
TERRELL, TX           48  65  46  51  35 /  10  10  30  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         49  67  47  52  35 /  10   5  20  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            47  70  46  52  34 /  10   5  10  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  67  41  51  33 /   5   5  30  30   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/66




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