Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241008
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. KFWS WSR 88D AND THE TDAL AND TDFW TERMINAL
DOPPLER RADARS SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM
THE 3500-4000 FEET BASES OF THE CLOUDS BUT DATA FROM THE ACARS
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT IS STILL QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER 3000 FEET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHEN THE RETURNS LOOKED BETTER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLIER...GRAHAM /KRPH/ REPORTED 10SM -DZ AS
THE ECHOES MOVED OVERHEAD. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LITTLE
DRIZZLE OR EVEN A FLURRY BUT BELIEVE THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST WE WILL START TO SEE CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN THROUGH MIDDAY...TO THE LOWER
AND MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WILL OCCUR TODAY AND SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING.

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WE
WILL SEE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT FOR JOLLY OLD SAINT NICK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SINCE
THEY ARE USED TO LIVING AT THE NORTH POLE...THE COLD WEATHER
SHOULD NOT AFFECT HIM...THE ELVES OR THE REINDEER TOO MUCH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH BY MIDDAY AND SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO RETURN...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. SO THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
EAST OF I-35 FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. LEAVING US IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WE
EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND ACTUALLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIFFER
ON HOW COLD IT WILL GET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND COLD AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE PLAINS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...BUT SOME VERY COLD AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
END 2014 AND BEGINNING 2015.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1103 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS
WAY EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTH IN ITS WAKE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN A VFR TO BORDERLINE MVFR DECK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 040-050 RANGE AT
ALL LOCATIONS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM. VFR
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO A SOUTH FLOW CAN NE EXPECTED IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE AREA TAFS.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  34  60  48  63 /   5   0   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  30  60  47  66 /   5   0   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             46  30  58  44  59 /  10   5   5   5  30
DENTON, TX            50  31  59  46  61 /  10   0   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          49  31  58  46  61 /  10   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            50  35  59  48  63 /   5   0   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           50  32  59  47  64 /  10   0   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         51  33  60  48  67 /   5   0   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            53  32  60  47  67 /   0   0   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  30  60  42  63 /   5   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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