Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 071725
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI SOUTHWEST
THROUGH KOKC /OKLAHOMA CITY/...CHILDRESS /KCDS/ AND KLBB /LUBBOCK/
AT 1700Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 00Z AND THROUGH
WACO 02-03Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS BY 06Z MONDAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS BY 15Z
MONDAY.


58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
SOUTH WINDS RETURNED TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE
NEARLY CALM IN AREAS THAT ARE BOTH EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE
AREAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SATURATION WELL BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WHILE STILL SHALLOW...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT
MEXIA HAS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE...THE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. A FEW SITES THAT WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PATCHY FOG WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE FOG IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICE
DEPOSITION...AND NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED.

WITH WARMING SOUTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S REGIONWIDE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE NIGHTFALL...BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP.

MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S...AND WIND SPEEDS
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
TOP 20 MPH...AND GUSTS WILL FREQUENTLY EXCEED 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S...A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15
TO 25 PERCENT. THE ABUNDANT AUTUMN GROWTH IS NOW DORMANT...AND
THIS VEGETATION WOULD BE THE FIRST TO INITIATE FIRE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME GREEN COLD SEASON GROWTH THAT WILL BE MORE RESISTANT
TO FIRE SPREAD...THE WINDS WILL MAKE ANY POTENTIAL WILDFIRES
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND MONDAY...BUT WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY INVADES FROM THE
WEST. ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS MAY APPROACH 60F ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD PUT THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE 70S. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  37  57  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  35  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             61  33  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  32  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  33  54  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  36  55  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           63  35  56  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  36  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  34  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  31  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

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