Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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139
FXUS64 KFWD 250454
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Concerns...potential for scattered thunderstorms Monday
afternoon.

Mostly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the
TAF period. The isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
overnight mainly east of a KDUA-KCRS-KT35 line but this activity
will not affect the TAF sites. An upper level ridge to the
northwest has kept most of the region under strong subsidence
during the last several days. As this ridge shifts slowly west and
an upper low moves westward into the region...we will have
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening
hours. Thus have placed VCTS in the Metroplex and Waco TAF sites
between 20z and 00z and VCSH 00z-02z. Expect southeast winds 5 to
10 knots to become southerly toward 12z and then easterly by 18z
Monday.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/
An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will continue to
shift slowly west while a mid/upper level trough works its way in
from the east. Convection associated with the trough has been
persistent over Louisiana and East Texas the past several days
and has been developing a little farther west each day. A distinct
shortwave rotating around the northern edge of the trough is
likely responsible for the latest round of convection now
lighting up the RADAR from the Arklatex region to Central and
Southern Louisiana. Most of these showers and storms are diurnally
driven and should linger through sunset before dissipating later
in the evening.

Later tonight, a deep and at least partially tropical airmass
will spread in from the east. PWATs are expected to climb to over
2 inches across the eastern counties overnight. Recent model
guidance has begun to indicate the possibility of nocturnal
thunderstorms developing within this moist airmass as the lead
shortwave moves overhead, and we have introduced POPs along and
east of a Sherman-Palestine line during the overnight hours.

This moist airmass will continue to spread in from the east during
the day Monday, with 2 inch PWAT values reaching west of the I-35
corridor, and some of the eastern counties exceeding 2.25 inches
by afternoon. Ongoing activity across the east in the morning
should increase in coverage while spreading west, as the
atmosphere further destabilizes with surface heating. Locally
heavy rainfall may be something to consider, particularly across
the southeast where the highest moisture resides. Fortunately, it
appears that the scattered nature of the activity combined with at
least some modest southwest storm motion should limit any flood
threat to isolated heavier cells.

Strong downburst winds could become an issue during the late
afternoon and early evening hours, but the threat may be
minimized by the high moisture environment. Severe weather
appears unlikely at this time, though some minor wind damage from
outflow cannot be entirely ruled out.

Rain chances will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper
trough continues to move slowly west across Texas. The best rain
chances should occur across the southern-most counties where 2+
PWAT air will remain.

Another shortwave trough is progged to drop southeast across the
Plains Wednesday Night and Thursday in the northwest flow around
the eastern edge of the high pressure ridge. This feature will
briefly sync up with the now weakening easterly wave over Texas
and bring another chance of showers and storms across the
forecast area. These two systems will part ways on Friday, but
the end result will be a lingering weak trough overhead Friday
into next weekend. This will ensure at least some slight chance
POPs as we move through the end of the month.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  96  78  96  78 /  10  50  20  30  10
Waco                78  96  75  95  75 /  10  50  30  40  20
Paris               76  93  75  95  75 /  20  50  20  20  10
Denton              78  95  76  94  76 /  10  40  20  30  10
McKinney            78  94  76  94  76 /  10  50  20  20  10
Dallas              80  95  79  95  79 /  10  50  20  30  10
Terrell             77  93  76  94  76 /  20  50  20  30  10
Corsicana           78  94  76  94  75 /  20  60  20  30  20
Temple              77  96  75  94  75 /  10  40  30  50  20
Mineral Wells       75  96  74  95  75 /   5  30  20  30  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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