Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 151141 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. RADAR DEPICTION WAS EXAGGERATING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES LEADING TO SUB-CLOUD
EVAPORATION. FOR THE DFW METROPLEX...EXPECT SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATE
THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST AT WACO WILL BE SIMILAR ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER THERE A BIT LONGER.

RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WACO AREA MAY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS...EVEN DURING THE RAIN SHOWERS.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT UNDER 10 KTS. /09

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS
IN UNSETTLED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THE GULF OPENS UP IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LEE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS HURRICANE
ODILE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION
OF MOISTURE AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BRING LOW RAIN
CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND THUNDER WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHEN LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ABUNDANT THROUGH MID WEEK...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ELEVATED MOISTURE DECREASES. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND WILL NOT HAVE A DIRECT INFLUENCE ON NORTH TEXAS
WEATHER. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST IT
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MOVE THE FRONT ACROSS
THE RED RIVER ON SUNDAY AND BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH
TEXAS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW ON SUNDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
OVERALL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  74  88  74  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
WACO, TX              89  71  88  73  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
PARIS, TX             84  69  85  69  86 /  20  20  30  20  30
DENTON, TX            87  70  87  71  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          86  69  87  70  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
DALLAS, TX            88  73  89  74  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
TERRELL, TX           87  71  87  71  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         88  72  87  73  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            88  70  86  72  88 /  20  20  40  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  68  86  70  88 /  20  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/




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