Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
300 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Unseasonably warm and dry weather will be the story for the next
several days with it feeling more like late summer instead of mid
fall. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
the week with no appreciable rainfall in sight.

Early morning water vapor depicts a shortwave situated over north
Texas that is in the process of exiting the area to the east.
Plenty of mid and high clouds associated with this feature will
stick around through the morning hours and there will continue to
be enough mid-level moisture for virga and even a few isolated
sprinkles before noon. Skies should generally have a clearing
trend later today as subsidence takes over in wake of this
shortwave. Temperatures this afternoon should be a couple degrees
warmer than Sunday owing to the lessening cloud cover.

Upper ridging will begin tonight across the southern US which will
shift the primary storm track north of the region. Another
approaching shortwave will traverse the Central Plains Tuesday
night and Wednesday inducing surface lee cyclogenesis and
strengthening low-level southerly flow. In advance of this
disturbance, abundant high clouds will overspread the our area on
Tuesday which should hold high temperatures mostly in the upper
70s and low 80s. A weak cold front that will develop with this
newly formed surface low should advance southward into
central/southern OK on Wednesday, but this frontal zone is
expected to stay north of the Red River along with any chance for

An anomalously strong upper ridge will continue building into the
southwestern US through the end of the week. While we will be
located on the eastern periphery of the ridge, it will still cause
our temperatures to be unseasonably warm and effectively eliminate
rain chances for the end of this week. Highs on Thursday and
Friday should climb into the mid to upper 80s for most locations.
Reaching 90 degrees seems unlikely, but certainly not impossible.
Record highs for DFW through the end of October range from 89 to
92 while at Waco they range from 90 to 94. At this point it
doesn`t appear they will quite be attainable. There are quite a
few differences among guidance for next weekend with the GFS
trying to send a weak front into the area with northwest flow
aloft while the ECMWF maintains a stronger ridge keeping this next
storm system`s track well to our north. Have sided with the
slightly warmer and drier ECMWF for now.



/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Light rain and MVFR ceiling potential through sunrise
Monday Morning.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---VFR is expected to continue through
the entire 06 UTC TAF cycle, including the DFW extended. Elevated
convection associated with a shortwave trough will slide eastward
through the overnight hours. While mostly virga is expected, a few
sprinkles cannot be completely discounted, especially with a few
reports of -RA just to the south of the DFW Metroplex. Some
additional turbulence may occur below FL200, but this threat will
diminish as the shortwave trough moves eastward. Stratus may
attempt to make a run at the Metroplex terminals Monday morning,
but there are a couple of things working against this. The first
would be the fairly weak low-level wind field that is expected to
persist across North TX. The second would be the absence of
sufficient low level moisture necessary for widespread stratus.
If the wind field becomes a bit stronger than currently
advertised, it`s possible that enough moisture transport northward
could yield a couple of hours of MVFR stratus. For now, I feel
that this potential is pretty low and will advertise VFR TAFs.

For the Waco TAF site---Intermittent -RA was noted on the past
hour or so across several Central TX sites. It appears that the
lift may have been stronger than previously thought and as a
result, this lift has generated a greater amount of saturation
down through the middle reaches of the troposphere. Given radar
trends, I`ve opted to prevail -RA for at least the first hour of
the 06 UTC TAF cycle for Waco. The elevated convection should
slide eastward with the passage of the shortwave trough. The low
level wind field has started to intensify very slowly across
Central TX this evening and this may help to pull a sufficient
quantity of low level moisture northward for some brief MVFR
stratus. The best window of opportunity for brief periods of MVFR
stratus still appears to be between 10 and 14 UTC. VFR should
return by mid-morning with some diurnal CU during the afternoon.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  65  82  66  84 /  10   5   5   5   5
Waco                83  61  83  62  85 /  10   5   5   5   5
Paris               81  58  81  60  82 /  10   5   5   5  10
Denton              81  61  80  62  83 /  10   5   5   5   5
McKinney            81  60  79  62  81 /  10   5   5   5  10
Dallas              83  65  82  66  84 /  10   5   5   5   5
Terrell             81  61  81  62  83 /  10   5   5   5  10
Corsicana           82  61  82  62  83 /  10   5   5   5   5
Temple              83  61  82  61  84 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       83  61  81  61  84 /  10   5   5   5   5




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