Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 122122
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
322 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Calm weather is in store tonight, with northerly winds subsiding
to around 5 mph across North and Central Texas. Southwesterly
winds will return after midnight, still remaining around 5 mph.
The low wind speeds, clear skies and relatively dry air will allow
for temperatures to drop from the 30s to around 40 degrees across
the region. Slightly higher elevated moisture will stream into
Central Texas during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, leading to a
few clouds to start out the day.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

A split flow pattern will continue across the region through the
end of the work week with an upper ridge along the West Coast, an
upper low over Baja California and a progressive but dry northwest
flow regime over the Southern Plains. A shortwave (currently
located over Alberta) will race southeastward through the Plains
Wednesday, which will send a cold front through North and Central
Texas Wednesday night. After a chilly day today, a return to west
winds and compressional warming ahead of the front will lead to a
rapid warm-up Wednesday afternoon, and we have sided with the
warmer end of guidance as a result (similar to Monday). West winds
and good mixing means that we have also gone with the drier side
of guidance, and another elevated fire danger day is expected as
minimum RH values fall into the teens Wednesday afternoon.

Conditions will improve by sunset Wednesday as winds slacken and
temperatures fall. The front will move quietly southward through
the area Wednesday night, and another cool and breezy day can be
expected on Thursday. A second and stronger shortwave will swing
southeast through the Plains late Thursday into early Friday,
sending a reinforcing shot of cool air southward and keeping
Friday`s temperatures a few degrees below Thursday`s readings.
The dry and breezy weather will keep fire danger elevated on
Thursday and Friday, but the cooler airmass should hopefully help
to mitigate the overall threat.

A slight westward shift in the upper level pattern this weekend
will send a third and yet stronger shortwave southeast from the
Great Basin into the Four-Corners area on Saturday. The system
will be far enough west to grab the Baja low and sling it quickly
northeast across Mexico and Texas Saturday and Saturday night,
then into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. Models are in better
agreement now and are indicating a faster and more moist system
than previous runs. We haven`t jumped on board with the likely and
categorical POPs (across the eastern counties) as advertised by
the ECMWF, but an upward adjustment to the POPs have been made for
the Saturday / Saturday night timeframe based on model trends.
The increase in low level moisture will also help to reduce fire
danger, though the western counties will still experience an
elevated fire threat where moisture return will be limited and
the warmest air will exist.

Yet another cold front will push through on Sunday, bringing a
return to cool and dry conditions during the early part of next
week.


30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1044 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/
In the wake of the dry frontal passage, N-NW surface winds will
begin to relax in the 22Z-24Z time frame. As the surface ridge
axis slides south-southeast overnight, winds will return to the
W-SW. Sfc winds will continue to veer after 18z in response to an
upper trough moving southeast into the midwest and another dry
boundary approaching from the north. A few high clouds from time
to time possible through the period, otherwise VFR TAF elements
to prevail all sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    40  73  40  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                32  69  39  60  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               34  69  37  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              33  74  37  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            34  72  37  57  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              40  72  41  59  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             32  70  38  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           34  67  40  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              33  67  40  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       33  76  36  58  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/08


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.