000
FXUS64 KFWD 190316 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1016 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS
CONSIDERABLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CAPPED
TO DEEP CONVECTION. WHAT APPEARED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE EARLIER WAS
THE THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS OR HEATBURSTS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE WEST. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND AMPLE ANVIL
DEBRIS SPREADING EASTWARD...A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE PHENOMENON
WAS IN PLACE. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA HOWEVER HAS FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES SQUASHED THIS
SCENARIO. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF STRATUS...AND THE IMPACT OF
ANY ANVIL CLOUD PRECIPITATION OVER METROPLEX AREA TAF SITES ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

REGARDING STRATUS...KEPT MVFR STRATUS IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TOMORROW MORNING AS MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP OVER NORTH TX TONIGHT. THIS STRONG JET WILL
HELP KEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE THERE WILL ONLY BE SHALLOW
LIFT WITHIN THE CORE OF THE JET OVER NORTH TX. THIS SHALLOW LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS TO FORM...BUT THERE IS NO GUARANTEE
THAT THIS WILL PAN OUT. THE LAMP IS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRATUS AS
IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WHILE THE NAM DOES. AT THIS POINT JUST
KEPT THE STRATUS IN THE FORECAST BUT BUMPED UP THE CIGS TO 2500 FT
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS EVEN IF IT
IS IN PLACE.

REGARDING ANVIL CLOUD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...PLACED A MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FROM 06 TO 09Z FOR
METROPLEX AREA TAF SITES. THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IF STORMS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AROUND ABILENE THIS EVENING. AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED SOME GOOD
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS JUST NORTH OF ABILENE...AND THIS TIPPED THE
SCALE TOWARDS INCLUDING THE LIGHT ANVIL PRECIPITATION IN METROPLEX
AREA TAFS. ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER NORTH TX WILL RESULT IN HEAT BURSTS...OR HEAT BURST LIKE
ACTIVITY.  ESSENTIALLY VERY GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING
AND DRYING OUT OF THE NEAR SURFACE AIR. IF THE ABILENE ACTIVITY
NEVER BECOMES ESTABLISHED...WILL REMOVE THIS GROUP FROM THE TAFS
IN FUTURE AMENDMENTS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUT THE
REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE EACH DAY. PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA WILL BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT...AND THE ADDITION
OF POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20...NOT NECESSARILY FOR SUPERCELL
TYPE CONVECTION...BUT FOR VERY HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION THAT
COULD CAUSE STRONG GUSTY WINDS VIA HEATBURSTS LATE THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL STAY AS FAR WEST AS A
CHILDRESS TO SAN ANGELO LINE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
WHETHER SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
ENTER THE CWA. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS STRONGER TODAY...AND
THEREFORE STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE MORE EASTERLY. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WOULD HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. LOCAL OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHED CIN
IS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE AIRMASS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE AT 1500-2500 J/KG AND
HIGHER CIN DUE TO DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S. WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ALLOW SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE WEST OF
THE CWA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ENTER THE NW ZONES...BUT
BELIEVE THE CELLS MAY WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME ELEVATED DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT
EXIST FOR PRIMARILY HAIL/WIND...AND POPS ARE NEAR 20-30 PERCENT IN
THE NW ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR GIANT HAIL OR
TORNADOES DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS IT DID YESTERDAY IN OUR CWA.

CURRENTLY...WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION BASED AT AROUND 14000FT
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MOST OF THE PRECIP
IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THIS ELEVATED
MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THERE ARE
A FEW MODELS NOW INDICATING A MOISTURE PLUME FROM 500-600MB
ENTERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVILS FROM STORMS TO THE WEST. THE ISSUE IS THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...AND
COINCIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. THE STAGE
IS SET FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH BASES ABOVE 12000FT.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL EVAPORATE DUE TO VERY DRY AIR BELOW 600MB...
BUT SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A 50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DEVELOPING AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTION
TO TRANSFER STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN WHAT IS TECHNICALLY A
TYPE OF HEATBURST. THIS IS TOUGH TO COMMUNICATE TO THE PUBLIC IN
SIMPLE TERMS...BUT THE POPS ARE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND THE CHANCE
FOR THAT IS LOW. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT A
LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE HAVE
BUMPED UP SOUTH WINDS TO 20-25 MPH AND MENTIONED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
IN THE ZONES. THIS FORECAST IS NOT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE...PARTLY
BECAUSE IT MAY BE THE FIRST NWS FORECAST THAT HAS EVER TRIED TO
INCLUDE A RISK OF HEATBURSTS IN A ZONE FORECAST. HOWEVER LOOKING
AT ALL OF THE DATA...THE SETUP TONIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BENEATH ELEVATED RADAR ECHOES. WE
SHALL SEE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW AND WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO THE NW
ZONES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH OVER THE NW
ZONES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND SUPERCELL STORM MOTION WILL
BE EASTERLY. WEST TO EAST STORM TRACKS ON SUNDAY EVENING MEANS
POPS WILL COVER THE AREAS NORTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL HELICITY RAMPS
UP AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING AND IF SUPERCELLS CAN OVERCOME THE
WEAK CIN AND TAP INTO SURFACE PARCELS...A TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY/S PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE SAME PLACE...JUST A LITTLE WEAKER CIN SO
POPS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER/FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
PERSISTENCE AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY MOVE EAST AND
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WORK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE WIDESPREAD AND AVERAGE
1/2 TO 1 INCH. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN HIGH
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN
CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
AND INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES INTO
THE AREA...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR NW FLOW MCS ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE NW ZONES. TOO FAR OUT TO RELY ON THE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  90  72  89  72 /   5  10  20  10  20
WACO, TX              72  90  73  90  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  88  70  87  70 /  10  10  20  10  40
DENTON, TX            73  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  89  71  88  71 /  10  10  20  10  30
DALLAS, TX            75  91  74  90  74 /   5  10  20  10  20
TERRELL, TX           72  88  71  89  73 /   5   5  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  89  72  89  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  89  73  90  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  93  70  92  71 /   5  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$