Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201927
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              57  82  61  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  81  58  76  52 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  82  60  80  55 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  60  81  56 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  83  58  79  55 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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