Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 262024
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
324 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See locally issued Mesoscale Update AFDFWD and regional SPC
SWOMCD discussions for short term updates through this evening.

For tonight after midnight most of the convection that occurs this
evening should be waning across our far eastern areas. A cold
front will eventually catch up to the dryline and push through the
remainder of the CWA through mid Monday morning. Drier air will
filter into the region through the day tomorrow with highs in the
mid/upper 70s and lower 80s. While the front will initially clear
the CWA, it is likely to quickly return northward as a warm front,
especially across West Texas late Monday night. This will mean a
gradual increase in moisture again across the southern half of the
CWA as southeasterly winds return.

By Tuesday, another powerful upper low will be moving out of New
Mexico and approaching Texas. Rich Gulf moisture will have spread
northward and should be in place across most of Texas. A dryline
will set up across West Texas with a warm front extending from the
surface low in the Panhandle southeast to along the Red River.
This will set up another favorable scenario for severe weather
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Initially, the more significant
threat will be to the west of our area, but will spread eastward
into the late evening hours. Our best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning and will continue to be accompanied by a severe weather
threat.

In addition to a severe weather threat, deep southerly flow will
be in place Tuesday night into Wednesday morning accompanied by PW
values near record territory. This suggests that one or more
convective lines or clusters could train over localized areas
resulting in a flash flood threat. The entire system does appear
to be progressive enough to preclude a more serious hydrologic
threat at this time. Precipitation should end quickly from west to
east during the day Wednesday.

The upper pattern remains progressive through the weekend with yet
another system approaching by Saturday. At this time it is a
little early to tell if a significant severe threat will accompany
this system, but rain/storm chances appear to be increasing at
least for Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 103 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/
Concerns: Thunderstorm potential this evening, MVFR/IFR cigs
overnight into Monday morning.

Breezy southerly winds continue to pull in Gulf moisture to the
region. Later this afternoon, isolated strong/severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop near/north of Interstate 20
and move eastward across North TX. This activity will likely
impact Bowie and Bonham cornerpost arrivals as well as northward
departures throughout the evening hours. High-res models are
still somewhat inconsistent on how far south to initiate
thunderstorms, but it is possible that a severe storm affects
airports within the immediate DFW area after 00z. Frequent
lightning, large hail, and strong winds will all be possible with
these thunderstorms. Have maintained a mention of VCTS but have
delayed it from previous TAF issuance based on latest guidance;
have elected not to include a prevailing TS mention yet due to
uncertainty. The threat for thunderstorms in the DFW area will
decrease after 04 or 05z. The potential for a storm at the Waco
TAF site is too low to include in the TAF as coverage is expected
to be limited farther south. The highest storm chances will
continue to be located near/along the Red River.

A cold front will be approaching the area late tonight and early
Monday morning. In advance of this front, widespread MVFR and IFR
stratus should develop and cigs below FL015 are likely at all TAF
sites beginning around midnight. Post-frontal stratus will likely
be an issue throughout Monday morning with cigs falling below 1
kft immediately along the front. Winds will turn to the
northeast and decrease in speed as the front moves through. Waco
may experience several hours of IFR cigs tomorrow morning
including some at or below 600 ft. Conditions should begin
improving by late Monday morning with VFR conditions expected at
all airports by Monday afternoon.

-Stalley


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  79  59  81  66 /  50   0   0  20  70
Waco                63  81  64  82  66 /  10  10   5  20  70
Paris               61  76  54  77  63 /  60  10   0  20  50
Denton              56  77  56  78  65 /  50   0   0  20  70
McKinney            59  77  57  79  65 /  60   0   0  20  70
Dallas              61  80  60  81  67 /  50   0   0  20  70
Terrell             62  79  58  81  66 /  50  10   0  20  60
Corsicana           65  81  62  82  67 /  30  20   0  20  50
Temple              64  83  64  83  66 /  10  10   5  30  70
Mineral Wells       52  80  55  78  61 /  20   0   0  40  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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