Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 210251
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE HIGH RES MODELS AGREE FOR
THE MOST PART THAT THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST ZONES OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD
NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE WE WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
WIND GRIDS AS WELL AS THE TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAF/

A STRONG TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND OVER THE HIGHS PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...WITH ONE
CURRENTLY MOVING UP ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND TRIGGER THE CURRENT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. ACTIVITY IS ALL ELEVATED...SO WINDS
NOT AN ISSUE. CIGS AND TIMING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE CHALLENGING
NEEDLESS TO SAY.

REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AT THE AIRPORTS...WE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH MID-LATE
EVENING...THEN WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. AFTER LIFT AND
MIXING CEASE FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...WE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOULD LIKELY START ABOVE
020...BUT THEN GO BELOW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SLOWLY COOLS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AND BECOME VFR AND POSSIBLY SCATTERING AFTER MIDDAY.

AN MCS IS PROGGED TO BE ON GOING WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER OK
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY SHOOT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE TIMING CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTIES
ON FORCING AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AT WHAT
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE LEFT THE VCTS MENTION
AT DFW METRO AIRPORTS AT 20Z MONDAY WITH OUTFLOW AND FORCING
ARRIVING AT WACO LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AGAIN...COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO GO MORE THAN VCTS.

WILL INDICATE A WIND SHIFT INTO DFW AIRPORT IN THE 24-30 HR PERIOD
AROUND 02Z MONDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECT TWEAKS AND ADJUSTMENTS AS
CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER WITH TIME.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
A NEARLY SOLID AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. AT 3
PM...THE ACTIVITY WAS BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY WICHITA FALLS...
BRIDGEPORT AND ABILENE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING NEAR COLEMAN AND BROWNWOOD. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL FEATURE
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LIKELY CATEGORY
NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH.
SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BUT POSE A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS...BUT CHANCES ARE THAT ANY SUCH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH DRASTICALLY BEFORE REACHING AS FAR
EAST AS GRAHAM OR BRECKENRIDGE LATE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WILL
BEGIN MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 3 AM TO NOON
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WE CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN ANY AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND CONTINUED ASCENT FROM LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 2000 J/KG
LOCALLY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE LIFT FROM COLD FRONT/WIND-SHIFT
CROSSES THE RED RIVER. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...CELL MERGERS...AND RELATIVELY STRONG STORM
OUTFLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT TO THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AFTER INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY CONCENTRATE IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SOUTH WILL END EARLY TUESDAY.
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SUBSIDENT AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER AND
MID 80S FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN ALL AREAS.

NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE PERIODS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
GIVEN ONLY MODEST FORCING AT BEST FROM A FAST MOVING PLAINS
SHORTWAVE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO NEXT WEEKENDS
SYSTEM...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL
FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY APR 27...BUT
WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

09/GP



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  81  62  82  61 /  50  50  40   5   5
WACO, TX              60  80  61  82  60 /  20  40  50   5   5
PARIS, TX             59  77  59  79  56 /  60  50  60   5   5
DENTON, TX            60  79  59  82  58 /  50  50  40   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          60  77  58  80  57 /  60  50  50   5   5
DALLAS, TX            63  80  62  82  61 /  50  50  50   5   5
TERRELL, TX           60  79  60  81  58 /  40  50  60   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  79  61  81  60 /  30  40  60   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  82  61  83  60 /  20  30  50  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  81  58  82  58 /  40  50  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79





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