Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 281734 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...VCTS this afternoon and early evening.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop
again this afternoon with the overall coverage less than
yesterday. Will continue with a VCTS mention at all the TAF sites
from 19-00Z but the best window for thunder appears to be after
21-22Z. Will not Tempo for TSRA at any of the airports but will
amend if needed once convective trends are observed after
development. A complex of storms is expected to develop in Kansas
overnight and move south into Oklahoma. As this complex nears the
Red River early Friday morning, it is expected to weaken and
possibly dissipate. At this time, do not have enough confidence to
mention rain in the Metroplex TAFs Friday morning and will
continue to monitor this potential.

Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail with a mix of cumulus
clouds between 4-6 kft and mid level clouds between 10-15 kft.
Southwest winds at the start of the valid TAF period are expected
to become south and south-southeast in a few hours. On Friday
morning, the winds will veer to the southwest again. Wind speeds
through the period will remain generally less than 10 kts but
could gust up to 30 kts in and near storms (from outflow
boundaries).

JLDunn

&&

.UPDATE...
Only minor changes for the update this morning to account for
current cloud cover and temperature trends.

Early morning convection across our northern and northeastern
counties is beginning to wane. The next hour or so may be relatively
quiet before scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop as we
reach the to mid 90s. Current forecast reasoning remains
unchanged with better coverage likely to the south and east of the
metro area.

McKinney

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

It looks like North and Central Texas will have one more day of
scattered showers and thunderstorms to contend with before upper
ridging builds back into the area effectively ending rain chances
and allowing temperatures to warm back to or slightly above 100
degrees into next week.

Water vapor imagery shows the main shortwave trough (discussed
about yesterday over Louisiana) has been pulled northeast and is
now embedded within a larger broad trough over the eastern U.S. In
its wake...a weakness in upper heights still persists between the
stronger ridge to the west and ridging centered off the east coast
of Florida. This weakness aloft will encounter strengthening
northerly flow by midday around the periphery of the western
ridge. This should in turn induce some cyclonic vorticity
advection and weak forcing for ascent by early afternoon across
the eastern half of the CWA into the Arklatex. All of this occurs
within a zone of low to mid level confluence centered right across
the middle of our CWA. Very high precipitable water values in
excess of 2 inches will persist in this area through the
afternoon...so scattered showers and thunderstorms appear likely
to occur again today. Current thinking is that the best coverage
will be within this band of converging 850-700mb flow just south
of the Metroplex eastward along the I-20 corridor into East Texas.
PoPs will generally be 30-40% in this area with lower coverage
farther north and west. Similar to the last few days...the
strongest storms will still be capable of marginally severe
downburst winds. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern
with the slow moving thunderstorms. A little more than normal
cloud cover and scattered outflows will keep temperatures slightly
cooler than normal in most locations today...but still warm and
muggy.

By tonight...we turn our focus farther north as one of several
weak disturbances moves through the Central Plains. A complex of
thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of Kansas and
Oklahoma. This activity will slide southeast and could clip our
northern/northeast counties very late tonight into Friday morning.
Otherwise...ridging starts to nudge back to the east by late
Friday. Most areas should stay precipitation free...although our
far eastern areas will still be far enough removed from any large
scale subsidence to possibly see a storm or two.

Ridging continues to build back into the area Saturday and Sunday.
The only areas that may see any precipitation would be our far
northeast where remnant thunderstorm activity from complexes to
the north could clip the region. Drier air aloft will also
accompany the ridging further helping to minimize rain chances.
The forecast will remain precip free Sunday into next week with
highs climbing back to near 100 degrees each afternoon.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  77  97  78  97 /  30  10  10  10  10
Waco                96  76  98  77  98 /  30  10  10   5   5
Paris               91  72  94  73  95 /  30  20  20  20  20
Denton              95  74  96  74  97 /  30  10  10  10  10
McKinney            95  75  95  75  96 /  30  10  20  10  10
Dallas              95  77  97  79  98 /  30  10  10  10  10
Terrell             92  75  95  76  97 /  30  10  20  10  10
Corsicana           92  76  96  77  97 /  40  10  10   5  10
Temple              96  75  97  76  98 /  30  10  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       97  73  97  74  99 /  30  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82



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