Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 161859 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1259 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The extensive low cloud cover and fog has dissipated across all of
North Texas this afternoon and VFR conditions prevail. The frontal
boundary is still draped across our far southeast counties and
some mid level cloud cover may spread northward into Waco over the
next several hours. The main concern through tonight will be some
patchy fog development at the major Metroplex airports with some
returning moisture but right now will opt to leave this out of the
latest TAF and continue to monitor. Farther south...some scattered
light showers may spread north into the Waco area by early Tuesday
morning. Some lower cigs may also begin to spread northward just
beyond this current taf period. A weak front will slide down into
the area this evening turning the winds to a more northerly
direction.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/
Rain and thunderstorms continue to push to the east early this
morning as the upper low responsible for last night`s round of
severe storms and flooding ejects northeastward into the Central
Plains. Where skies cleared out behind the line of storms, patchy
fog (some dense) has formed mostly along/west of I-35. Expect
visibilities to remain less than a mile and occasionally less than
1/4 mile in this area, and have gone with a Dense Fog Advisory
through 9am. The advisory may need to be expanded farther east if
conditions begin to deteriorate.

Showers and storms will linger across our southeastern counties
today where a moisture gradient and weak surface convergence will
remain. Additional showers and storms may develop in this area
later this afternoon, but a lack of strong large-scale ascent as
well as limited instability should limit any storm`s intensity.
In the meantime, drier air will be slowly filtering in from the
west across the rest of North and Central TX with light westerly
surface winds. Later today and tonight, a cold front (currently
positioned roughly from OKC southwestward through the TX
Panhandle) will move through the area. Winds will become
northwesterly which will advect in cooler air overnight dropping
temperatures 5-15 degrees for Tuesday.

The aforementioned cold front will stall across south TX on
Tuesday with a deepening upper low taking shape to our west. As
this low intensifies and moves toward the region Tuesday night,
isentropic ascent over the frontal zone will result in showers and
isolated storms developing across much of Central TX. Have
continued an upward trend in PoPs during the middle of the week
as guidance continues to advertise a higher potential for rain and
a few thunderstorms. With this activity being elevated above a
cooler surface layer well north of the stalled front, severe
storms are not expected. In fact, due to very limited instability,
activity may consist more of widespread showers without much
thunder. The highest rain chances will be on Wednesday with the
highest PoPs confined to Central TX through the middle of the
week.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin tapering off from west to
east on Thursday as the upper low begins shifting northward,
pulling the stationary front back north as a warm front.
Temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer as south
flow resumes and some clearing skies allow for increased heating.
It appears our forecast area will be situated on the subsident
side of the departing shortwave during this time which implies
most of the thunderstorm potential will be shifting east of the
area for the rest of Thursday.

Forecast confidence decreases heading into the weekend, although
it does appear an active pattern will still send numerous
disturbances through the area into early next week. We should be
between systems on Friday with above normal temperatures
continuing. Guidance is suggesting another shortwave will be
digging southward through the Central Plains during this time
which would affect our weather for the upcoming weekend. This
shortwave would be capable of generating a deep surface low to
our north on Saturday/Sunday leading to additional chances for
thunderstorms across parts of East TX.

-Stalley



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  56  45  58  49 /   0  10  40  30  10
Waco                47  55  44  59  49 /  10  40  60  40  10
Paris               43  56  44  57  48 /  10   5  40  30  30
Denton              40  55  39  57  46 /   0  10  40  30  10
McKinney            42  56  42  58  48 /   0  10  40  30  20
Dallas              44  56  47  59  50 /   0  10  40  30  10
Terrell             45  57  44  59  50 /  10  20  50  30  20
Corsicana           48  57  47  59  51 /  10  40  60  40  20
Temple              48  55  45  59  50 /  10  60  60  50  20
Mineral Wells       39  55  40  58  46 /   0  10  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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