Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 202334 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAF/

SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS OUTSIDE OF THE
RUC/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
THE AREA REMAINS LOCKED IN A SHALLOW COOL SURFACE RIDGE. MOST MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EASE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IT/S
POSSIBLE WE COULD BRIEFLY SEE CIGS GO ABOVE 020 BEFORE TANKING
BACK INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL AIRPORTS. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK WITH IFR VSBYS.
CIGS SHOULD RISE THROUGH IFR AND INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOW VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. DID NOT ADD PATCHY -DZ AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY JUST YET WITH WARMER SURFACE CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HRS
AGO...THOUGH IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE EVENING.

LIGHT EAST WINDS 3-5 KTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

...QUITE VARIABLE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...

CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON TENACIOUSLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTING FROM
ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  AS THE GRADIENT OF THE
QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTENSIFIES...HOWEVER...BETTER
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO PICK UP AND BEGIN ERODING THE CLOUDINESS BY
AFTERNOON. SOME LATE DAY SUN...COUPLED WITH A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE.

WITH EVEN MORE SUN AND A STEPPED UP SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WELL. THIS BRIEF
WARM UP WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL
AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. A FAIRLY STOUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE VALUES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO A KILLEEN-PALESTINE LINE SHOULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES JUST DON`T SEEM TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THIS SURVIVING TO THE SURFACE. IN GENERAL...THE BULK OF THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL DEPART THE REGION BEFORE ANY
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE TO CAUSE ISSUES.

THE ROLLER-COASTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WEDNESDAY AND PARTICULARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

BRADSHAW

66/25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  54  46  65  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
WACO, TX              42  56  47  67  45 /   5  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             41  52  43  61  44 /   5  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            41  54  45  62  43 /   5  10  10   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          42  52  44  62  44 /   5  10  10   5  30
DALLAS, TX            42  54  47  65  45 /   5  10  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           43  55  46  63  45 /   5  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         43  57  47  65  47 /   5  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  57  46  68  46 /   5  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  55  43  67  43 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/66





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