Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 012339
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
539 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Updated aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Short term concern for short term is threat for light
snow/freezing drizzle overnight.

Current surface analysis indicates scattered light snow with some
patchy freezing drizzle reported across the mn portion of the
forecast area with only light snow in NW WI. The conditions remain
basically unchanged across the region with low level moisture
trapped under an inversion as indicated on the forecast soundings.
This situation will continue though most of the overnight which
may cause the scattered light snow/patchy freezing drizzle across
most of the region. This precipitation will end by daybreak Friday
morning.

The snow showers will continue across northern iron county
overnight into Friday morning as north to NW wind continues across
the lake. Another 1 to 2 inches of snow are possible before it
ends by midday Friday as drier air moves in along with a wind
switch.

Cyclonic flow will keep clouds across the forecast area on Friday.
There may be brief breaks in the clouds on Friday but they will
fill in quickly. Temperatures will be near normal tonight and
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Surface and mid level ridging covers the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday. An upper level long wave trof pushes the ridging to
the east Saturday night, and reaches the Minnesota/Dakotas border
area by 12Z/6am Sunday. This trof will be aligned with a surface
cold front. Warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of the
trof/front will induce some snow showers Saturday night. On Sunday,
the trof/front pushes into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin in
the afternoon. The snow showers will continue to occur along and
ahead of the front, diminishing behind the front. The trof/front
move east of the area Sunday evening, but lingered some pops for any
backwash snow showers. Dry late Sunday night and Monday morning with
brief high pressure moving nearby. A cutoff low shown by the GFS,
moved into south central Canada Monday afternoon through Wednesday.
This brought a surge of some of the coldest air for December. The
00Z ECMWF dropped the closed low from southern Manitoba into the
Dakotas during this time frame. The 12Z ECMWF was unavailable for
this forecast package and used a blend of the GFS/00Z ECMWF for
Monday afternoon through Wednesday. The GEM was a major outlier
during this time and was ignored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Widespread MVFR ceilings and VFR visibilities as of issuance time
is expected to continue through the TAF period. Some snow showers
with MVFR visibilities possible at KDLH and KHYR, but their timing
is difficult and have gone with just VCSH for now, except at KHYR
where radar echoes indicate they are in the vicinity now. These
showers may develop again after 18z, but have left out for now to
later determine timing and locations affected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  30  24  29 /  10  10  10  10
INL  24  29  21  28 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  25  29  20  30 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  26  31  23  30 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  29  33  25  31 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE


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