Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 131148 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
548 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Issued at 548 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Please see the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 442 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

A miserably, bitterly cold airmass under a surface ridge of high
pressure is over the forecast area this morning, with temperatures
ranging from 10-20 below over NW Wisconsin, to 15-30 below over NE
Minnesota. Many cars- including mine- are going to complain about
having to start this morning. At last check, wind chill values for
most locations are in the 15 to 30 below range with a few
locations flirting with 40 below. Expect these conditions to
continue for several more hours before temperatures begin to
recover from overnight lows and the increasing southerly winds
begin to bring in warm air even as they cause wind chill values to
lower. For now, the current suite of wind chill advisories seems
appropriate, though a few locations may dip below -40 for an hour
or two. Will keep an eye on that, though do not anticipate having
to upgrade to a warning at this time.

Warm air advection is already ongoing aloft, and a wave of
combined warm and moist advection is going to spread across the
region beginning this afternoon and continue through this evening
as shown by the latest 850mb T and RH forecasts. This wave is
going to bring increasing clouds and perhaps even some flurries as
the wave moves across. Do not have a lot of confidence in those
flurries as the moisture is quite limited. It will also cause
temperatures to warm and expect that we will not need another Wind
Chill Advisory tonight with temperatures staying up in the zero
to 5 below range. Exact temperature trends are going to be
difficult this evening as it is going to depend on the timing of
the thicker clouds, rising under the clouds and then falling once
the clouds move out. With the ridge well east of the area by
Saturday southerly winds are going to increase and combined with
the generally warmer airmass moving in highs will rise into the
teens to perhaps even low 20s on Saturday afternoon. In fact, it
might be a pretty nice day to get outside for some sunshine and
winter activities.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 442 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

An area of low pressure will move through the region early next
week and temperatures will warm well above normal toward the end
of the week.

Northwest flow over the region Saturday night will shift quasi-
zonal and eventually southwesterly through early next week. A
shortwave trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest Sunday morning and should bring an increase in cloud
cover. A few isolated flurries are possible along the Inter-
national Border. A much milder Pacific airmass will continue to
build into the region Saturday night with milder temperatures
through the second half of the weekend. Highs on Sunday will top
out in the 20s across the Northland, with even milder temperatures
on Monday.

A deep longwave trough over the western United States will shift
eastward on Sunday and cross into the Plains on Monday. Another 24
hours have passed and the deterministic and ensemble guidance has
invented a new solution for the evolution of this system. The
cutoff upper low will drive into northern Mexico and then lift
northeastward toward the western Great Lakes Sunday afternoon
through Wednesday. As the upper low moves through Kansas and
Nebraska on Monday, a northern stream shortwave will move out of
the Northern Rockies and phase with the approaching system. The
addition of the approaching shortwave will pull the upper low a
bit farther north than previously expected. Another northern
stream shortwave will move across the Northern Plains on Tuesday
night, kicking the earlier trough eastward a bit quicker than
previously expected. Precipitation will spread up the Mississippi
River Valley Sunday night and Monday, moving into Northland early
Monday morning. With the warmer airmass in place ahead of this
system, there is a potential for a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain, with inland portions of northwest Wisconsin most
favored for the mixed precip. The band of precipitation will
extend as far west as central Minnesota before pulling away to the
east on Tuesday. Behind the departing low winds are expected to
veer southwesterly and wind speeds over western Lake Superior will
increase markedly.

Wednesday night through the end of the week will feature a shift
back to a quasi-zonal pattern aloft with temperatures warming
through Friday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to climb
into the lower to upper 30s, a welcome reprieve from the cold of
the past few weeks.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 548 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

High pressure was building across Minnesota this morning
resulting in clear skies. VFR conditions are expected to continue
throughout the day and into this evening. A passing shortwave
trough and a warm front aloft will move through northern
Minnesota, northwest Ontario, and northwest Wisconsin tonight
which will bring an increase in cloud cover. Ceilings may lower
into MVFR range, but moisture will be hard to find as the trough
passes and VFR ceilings are expected. Winds aloft may increase
with the passing trough and later updates may need to introduce
low-level wind shear.


DLH   3  -3  16   1 /  10  10   0   0
INL   1  -4  13  -4 /  10  10   0   0
BRD   5  -4  18  -3 /  10  10   0   0
HYR   5  -3  19  -3 /  10  10   0   0
ASX   8  -1  20   3 /  10  10   0   0


WI...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for WIZ002>004-

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-018>021-

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ140>142.



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