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000
FXUS63 KDLH 032120
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOW TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CASS...CROW
WING...AND AITKIN.  REPORTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
FRONT HE SNOWFALL IN THE LAST THREE HOURS.  THE SNOW WAS LIGHT AND
SMALL FLAKES SO ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT.  THE RADAR INDICATES
A COUPLE OF ENHANCED AREAS MOVING ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE SNOW IS CAUSED BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG WITH SOME WAA.  THE SNOW BAND WILL SPREAD EAST THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  IT WILL REACH THE TWIN PORTS AROUND 00Z
AND HYR BY 02Z.  THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS (1-3 INCHES) WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN AND WI. THE SNOW WILL END IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z,,,THE TWIN PORTS 08-09Z AND
PRICE COUNTY IN WI BY 12Z TUE.  THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL ONLY
EXPERIENCE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.

ON TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION GIVING THE AREA A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION. THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TO RIPPLE ACROSS MINNESOTA...WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM NORTH DAKOTA...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE...TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE
SNOW BAND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MAY GET BRUSHED WITH THIS EVENT. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY
AND STILL COLD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE
TRAIN OF THEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND A
WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BRING A
BAND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PUTS US INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THURSDAY AND HIGHS IN THE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED.  STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT RELATIVELY WARM COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW WEEKS. MORE
SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH THIS IS STRONG
ENOUGH THAT HAVE BOOSTED POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT A
LITTLE...WITH SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR BOTH PERIODS.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...BUT THE
INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT AS COLD AS HAS BEEN DRIVEN INTO THE AREA
RECENTLY...AND EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY..WITH
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY......ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...BUT DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  FOR NOW TIMING AND TRACK ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN AND HAVE ONLY
GOT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT
THESE TO SHIFT BEFORE ANY INCREASES COULD BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO 30S.

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1146
AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

SNOW MOVING INTO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 22Z
AND 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOR KHIB...KDLH...KBRD AND
KHYR. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AT THESE
SITES...HANDLED IN TEMPO GROUPS. KINL NORTH OF THIS SNOW
BAND...AND SHOULD GET NO WORSE THAN MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR
A 3-5 HR PERIOD BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. CIGS AND VSBYS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -2  16  -2  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL -12  14  -9  19 /  40   0   0  10
BRD  -1  18  -2  21 /  70  10  20  10
HYR  -4  19  -4  21 /  60  10  10  10
ASX  -2  17  -3  18 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE