Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141011 CCA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
411 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

A quiet weekend with high pressure covering the forecast area
today through Sunday. A WNW flow aloft today will transition to
a westerly flow by tonight. A small upper level impulse will move
along the Canadian border tonight, but due to a lack of moisture,
will only see some passing high clouds. Warm air advection begins
on Sunday with 850mb temps warming from -4C in the morning, to 2C
in the afternoon. Max temps will reach the teens today, and the
20s on Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the single digits below
zero, single digits above zero near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

A storm system will move through the Upper Mississippi River Valley
early next week bringing a wintry mix of precipitation. Temperatures
will remain well above normal for the second half of the week.

A deep trough of low pressure located over the western United States
will shift eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains early
next week. Model solutions seem to be latching onto a preferred
evolution with this system and looks similar to yesterday`s runs. A
cutoff low near the Big Bend area of Texas Sunday evening will lift
northeast toward the lower Missouri River Valley by Monday night.
Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave trough will advance eastward
across the northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains and
Canadian Prairies. These two features will phase by Tuesday morning
somewhere over Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Iowa. Surface low pressure
will accompany the cutoff low bringing a broad area of precipitation
into the Northland by Monday afternoon. With the prolonged period of
southerly flow ahead of this system and warmer air aloft wrapping
into the low, there continues to be a potential for a wintry mix of
snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain Monday afternoon through early
Tuesday morning over inland portions of northwest Wisconsin.
Precipitation is expected to fall as all snow farther west into the
St. Croix Valley and portions of east-central and northeast
Minnesota.

Model differences become apparent as the trough lifts out of the
region Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and GEM feature a second
northern stream shortwave moving into the region Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning. They also suggest the initial cutoff low
will open to a progressive shortwave while the northern stream
trough digs a new center of low pressure somewhere over the Central
Plains or Upper Midwest. Those solutions push the surface low
eastward a bit quicker while the upper trough loiters over the area
until the second northern shortwave kicks it eastward Wednesday
morning. The ECMWF has a much weaker secondary shortwave and
features a more progressive evolution of the surface and upper low.
Leaned a little more toward the GFS/GEM solution with a slight
chance of light snow lingering in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday night.

Another shot of warm Pacific air will follow Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night with temperatures climbing well above normal.
It`s possible most of the Northland may see high temperatures above
freezing Wednesday through the remainder of the work week. There is
a potential for another storm system to move into the area Friday
night through Saturday, but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Clouds remained over portions of northeast Minnesota and all of
Wisconsin late this evening due to continued warm air advection.
There has been clearing though with both KHIB and KINL seeing
clear skies as of 0530Z. Clearing will continue from west to east
tonight but it will be slow. There has not been much for
precipitation except for some lake effect snow along portions of
the North Shore and that will be ending over the next couple
hours. Ceilings will continue to be mainly VFR but some brief
MVFR ceilings will also be possible with even lower ceilings
northeast of KTWM due to lake processes. VFR conditions are then
expected Saturday into Saturday evening.

LLWS will continue into the early morning hours, mainly impacting
northern Minnesota, and we continue that mention in the
KDLH/KHIB/KINL TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17   1  24  11 /   0   0   0   0
INL  13  -2  26   9 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  19  -3  26  11 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  19  -4  24  10 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  21   3  28  14 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ121-
     140>148.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde


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