Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 181135 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
535 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER BAYFIELD...
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES...BUT THE REFLECTIVITIES HAVE
DIMINISHED...AND LATEST SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SNOWFALL HAS DIMINISHED.  OUR SURFACE LOW FROM YESTERDAY HAS
MOVED TO QUEBEC...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS BUILDING
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  TODAY...A COMBINATION OF WINDS BACKING TO
THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...AND RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...WILL SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  WE WILL ALSO GET AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CHILLY...RANGING GENERALLY FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A FRESH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING A WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD AIR SURGES BACK
INTO THE AREA.  TONIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP IN THE 5 TO 10
ABOVE RANGE BY INCREASING CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW.
WHILE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE FORCING IS
QUITE CONSISTENT AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM ABOUT 00Z
ON...WITH EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...WITH NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO IN EITHER PERIOD...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH SMALLER AMOUNTS AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION.  WEDNESDAY CLOUDS AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MORNING
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

THERE WILL BE COLD WNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS COULD RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHERN IRON COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATION. THE WNW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DOES NOT
FAVOR HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON
COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS INDICATE A MORE NW
FLOW...THAN WE MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS NORTHERN IRON COUNTY COULD GET ABOUT 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL HERALD A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE VERY LIGHT PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS COULD BE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
ALOFT...THEN IT COULD BE FLURRIES. IT IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT TO
NARROW DOWN THE DETAILS OF PCPN TYPE.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK POTENTIALLY
GLOOMY AND MESSY FOR THE NORTHLAND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
GREAT...BUT IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL COMBINE
WITH A TEXAS HOOKER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OR GREAT
LAKES REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE CLIPPER WILL BE
THE DOMINANT LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER TEXAS LOW COMPARED
TO THE CLIPPER. THE TRACKS...AND WHICH LOW IS MORE DOMINANT...WILL
HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON PCPN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL PCPN TYPE/AMOUNTS.
LEANED ON A BLEND THIS FAR OUT. THESE SYSTEMS CONVERGING OVER THE
REGION COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND...INCLUDING
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD 5 TO 10 KNOT WNW FLOW
AND VFR CIGS AROUND 3500 TO 5000 FEET. THERE WERE ALSO POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET.

THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TOWARDS MORE PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SW. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS
AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS DUE TO -SN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16   8  20   4 /  10  40  20  10
INL  17  10  19   0 /  20  50  40  30
BRD  15   8  18   3 /  10  60  10   0
HYR  15   5  20   2 /  10  60  60  20
ASX  18   9  22   9 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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