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000
FXUS63 KDLH 281711
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

A SHOWERY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF NE MN AND
PARS OF NWRN WI. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...OR VORTICITY CENTER...ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP POP SOME SHOWERS ABOUT MIDDAY. CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CREATE WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SO SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR...TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOL. ANOTHER LOBE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE COMING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND YET ONE MORE ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
MN ARROWHEAD...ESPECIALLY TODAY...WITH THE VORT MAX GOING RIGHT
OVER THAT REGION. BUT MODELS DIVERGENT ON TONIGHTS AND TUESDAYS
SYSTEM AS THESE SMALL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THIS WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
WOBBLE OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION FOR DAYS AND MAINTAIN
LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT TOWARDS NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER
WITH HIGHS INT HE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE THIS WEEKEND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL DROP THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO NW WI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE
VCSH MENTIONS AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR FOR THIS TREND. BRD WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE. VFR ARE EXPECTED...EVEN WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
FORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  52  76  55 /  20  20  30  20
INL  75  52  76  52 /  10  20  20  20
BRD  75  52  77  55 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  75  52  76  51 /  20  20  40  20
ASX  75  52  73  52 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF