Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141624 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1024 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Issued at 1024 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Some light returns are starting to show up on local radar as a
mid-level shortwave sweeps southward through the forecast area.
The RAP model soundings are showing a layer of dry air about 3000
feet deep near the sfc, which should suppress most precipitation
from reaching the ground. Small chances of precipitation should
persist through the rest of the afternoon as the mid-level wave
moves through.

Adjusted today`s high temperatures up a tad as many areas have
already reached their previously expected high temperatures for
today. Temperatures are still expected to drop this afternoon as
cold air advection enhances behind the wave. Highs still look to
reach into the lower 30s north and the mid to upper 30s south.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

A surface low over northern Ontario this morning will move east
to Quebec today. Behind this surface low a strong cold front is
expected to move across the forecast area, accompanied by a decent
shortwave. In combination, these should produce showers over
mainly the Arrowhead of Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during
the morning and early afternoon hours today as these features move
across. There should be a diminishing trend during the afternoon
as the upper level shortwave pulls south of the forecast area. For
now have mainly slight and low end chance pops over the affected
areas, but this may need to be expanded once daytime trend become
better defined. Tonight a ridge of high pressure builds into the
area, settling across the western forecast area by Wednesday
morning. With this synoptic set up we should have a period of lake
effect snow showers overnight tonight, with the north winds for
plenty of fetch, steep enough low level lapse rates and plenty of
moisture to produce the showers. I have boosted pops along the
south shore, mainly east of Ashland based on these conditions, but
it may need to be spread farther west as well. These showers to
linger into Wednesday morning, but then should diminish as the
surface ridge builds farther into the forecast area and weakens
the surface winds. Snowfall amounts should remain light based on
available moisture, but could be an inch or two. Other than these
showers conditions should be dry for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Have kept cloud cover pessimistic through the period. While we
have a ridge moving across the mid and high level moisture levels
should keep cloud cover up.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Northerly flow aloft will continue across the region on Wednesday
night and Thursday, but a major upper level ridge will start to
move into the Northland by Thursday night. Generally dry weather
is expected from Wednesday night into the weekend, although a few
light snow showers will be possible across the Minnesota Arrowhead
during the latter part of the work week. As a result of the
strong upper level ridge, we will see temperatures much above
normal for this time of year. In fact, we could see high
temperatures more than 20 degrees above normal for this time of
year. The upper level ridge will move to the central Great Lakes
by 00Z Tuesday, as a vigorous upper level trough approaches from
the west. While there are some differences with regard to timing
of precipitation, the general consensus is that we could see a
fairly significant amount of rainfall early next week. The ECMWF
even supports some thunderstorms across the region. We will have
to watch this closely. With temperatures reaching well into the
40s to around 50 this weekend and early in the work week, combined
with significant precipitation, we could start to see some
snowmelt issues.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 602 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

A cold front will move southward across the Northland today,
bringing areas of clouds and windy conditions. Winds will gust to
30 knots at times throughout the day, while local MVFR CIG`s move
through the Northland. The wind should gradually diminish across
the region tonight.


DLH  31  10  24  14 /  10  10   0   0
INL  29   5  23  11 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  33  12  28  18 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  34  12  26  12 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  35  15  25  13 /  40  50  10  10




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