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000
FXUS63 KDLH 132021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN/SNOW MIX
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN ARE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NW WINDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FROM I-FALLS TO DULUTH
TO PARK FALLS. FOR TONIGHT...THE HEAVIER SNOW AMTS WILL BE FURTHER TO
THE EAST...BUT PORTIONS OF PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
ONLY TRACE AMTS...BUT A FEW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS IN THE ARROWHEAD
COULD DROP A QUICK HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE CONUS WITH A POTENT EMBEDDED S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING TO THE NE FROM ERN KS TO SRN LAKE MI
TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING
THE SFC TROUGH AND INTERACTING WITH AN ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND E/NERN
WI. PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. AREAS OF PRICE COUNTY COULD
SEE UP TO AN INCH BY MON MORNING.

THE COLD AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S TONIGHT.
A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NW WINDS TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
TOMORROW.

THE NRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW AND BRING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT THE GENERATION OF ISO SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER FROM THE NAM AND GFS BECOMES ENHANCED MON
AFTERNOON...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH VSBYS LESS THAN ONE
MILE AT TIMES. WILL STILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS TOMORROW...BUT MAY
NEED TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE DEPARTING LONG WAVE TROF.
THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE FA AT THE SFC. NOT
ENOUGH COLD AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND A QUESTION OF ICE COVER
PRECLUDES CARRYING POPS OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE INTO ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE TUESDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT.
PCPN DOES NOT REACH THE FA UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION IN THE EVENING. HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS FOR QPF COVERAGE. PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW AS
SUGGESTED BY THERMAL PROFILES. THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE QPF IN NW WI. OTHER MODELS HANG QPF
OVER MUCH OF NE MN AS WELL AS NW WI. CONTINUED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WARM ENOUGH FOR A RASN MIX
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS WILL EAT INTO THE SNOW TOTALS
OVER THIS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT FINDS THE PCPN BEGINNING TO
TRANSITION TO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA AS AN INVERTED TROF
MOVES INTO WI. THE BULK OF THE QPF WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE
INVERTED TROF AND HAVE HIGHEST QPF FORECAST IN NW WI. PCPN SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW. ON THURSDAY...BEGIN TO TREND DOWN THE POPS AS THE INVERTED
TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A RASN MIX EXCEPT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA WHERE ALL LIQUID IS EXPECTED. FRIDAY FINDS
THE PCPN CHANCES INCREASING AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PUSHES THE INVERTED TROF BACK TOWARDS THE FA.
EXPECTING ALL SNOW. HAVE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES PREVAIL WITH RASN OR RAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT HYR WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 14Z/14 WHEN SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
HAVE A VCSH MENTION AT HYR FROM 01Z TO 09Z AS PCPN BUBBLES UP FROM
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20  31  16  31 /  10  20   0   0
INL  14  27  11  27 /  10  20  10   0
BRD  22  34  16  38 /   0  10   0   0
HYR  23  33  13  35 /  10  20  10   0
ASX  24  30  15  32 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF