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000
FXUS63 KDLH 300416
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1016 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

BACKED OFF ON THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS CLOUD TEMPS ARE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

SNOW HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. KDLH RADAR AND CANADIAN RADAR MOSAIC
INDICATE ANY LIGHT SNOW IS N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ATTM. MINOR
SOME CHANGES IN THIS AREA AS WELL. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION
STILL LOOKS GOOD AND MADE NO CHANGES THERE. REST OF THE FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TONIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM NW TO
SE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO PHILLIPS WI.

NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK MID
LVL S/W SLIDING E/SEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK ALONG THE INTL BORDER...AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DRAG EWD THROUGH NRN MN/WI. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR
MASS...SO AMTS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DRYING ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT COULD
TRIGGER PATCHY FZDZ OVER EXTREME ERN MN AND PARTS OF NW WI LATE
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN ALL SNOW ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM WASKISH TO MOOSE LAKE
TO SIREN. THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND STRONGER FORCING. COULD SEE
UP TO AN INCH FROM ELY TO LUTSEN. ALL OTHER AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WILL GENERALLY SEE TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH TAILING WEAK WAA WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER ABUNDANT...AND ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
RATHER MILD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS.

WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING EWD OUT OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND SKIES CLEARING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM MOST OF
THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A DECENT AMT OF
SUNSHINE...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

THE NORTHLAND BECOMES SITUATED IN AN INCREASING SLY FLOW THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW MAKES LANDFALL IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY...MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN EXITS OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY.

THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH NEGATIVELY TILED TROUGH AXIS...WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING THE H50 RIDGE AS WELL AS INCREASING MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION MON/TUES/WED. THERE WILL BE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST/ONSHORE WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS/LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE TWIN PORTS...NORTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH DETAILS AND TIMING DIFFER...LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MN/WI IN THE TUES/WED
TIME FRAME....WITH A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE DURING THE WED/THURS PERIODS AS THE
FORECAST AREA BECOMES SITUATED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. HAVE KEPT PTYPE ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME...BUT DUE TO THE
STRONG WAA...THERE IS A THREAT THAT THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH
RAIN...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN ZONES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WED/WED
NIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH WAA COVERING THE
AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE JUST UPSTREAM IN EASTERN ND AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 03Z WITH A BATCH OF IFR CIGS.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME PCPN AFTER 03Z...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN AFFECTING ANY
ONE SITE AND HAVE A VCSH MENTION. THE PCPN SHOULD END BY 09Z. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS IS ANTICIPATED BY 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20  32  16  30 /  30  10  10  20
INL  18  27  10  25 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  19  33  15  29 /   0  10   0  20
HYR  21  34  16  30 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  23  35  21  31 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF