527
FXUS63 KDLH 200543
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Please see the 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Persistent upper-level trough will slowly drift eastward tonight
and Tuesday. Partly to mostly cloudy skies, with scattered rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected this evening.
Patchy fog may develop as winds diminish tonight. Ridging aloft
and surface high pressure will move toward the area on Tuesday,
but not before a potent shortwave trough slides southeastward
across northwest and central Minnesota late tonight and Tuesday
morning. Another round of showers will accompany the trough mainly
affecting our southwestern and southern zones. High pressure
moving into the west during the morning will work to erode the
cloud cover and bring an end to precipitation for most areas.
Enough cyclonic flow and cool air aloft should remain in place
over northeast Minnesota and portions of northern Wisconsin to
support another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain below
normal through Tuesday due in large part to the cooler air aloft
and cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Quiet weather is expected for Tuesday night with a weak ridge
axis over the forecast area. Have lowered min temperature forecast
slightly as we should get some good radiational cooling
conditions. This quiet won`t last very long as a potent shortwave
is due to dive through the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
which should bring a round of showers and thunderstorms through
the area. Models are getting a more consistent handle on this
feature, but there are still differences in timing and track. Have
raised POPs over consensus to reflect the now several runs of
models consistently showing this feature.

From Thursday on out, have less confidence in the forecast, with
a broad upper level trough over the central CONUS with a series of
shortwaves that move through the trough. The models vary greatly
in the phasing and track of these waves, introducing some pretty
significant uncertainty into the precipitation forecast. For now
have gone with a consensus forecast which is pretty much slight or
low chance POPs for Friday through next Monday. This not terribly
out of the ordinary it being June, but as we get closer in time
we should be able to pick out some dry periods. With the northwest
flow and troughing going on aloft, expect near to below normal
temperatures for Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

A trough will dig from northeast North Dakota into northeast
Wisconsin by Tuesday afternoon. This has provided enough lift to
generate scattered rain showers which will impact BRD/DLH/HYR
overnight. Tried to time this activity by latest radar data and
HRRR guidance. Could see ceilings lower to MVFR with some
visibility reduction, but still uncertain as this activity has
weakened in the last several radar scans.

Otherwise expect VFR conditions through the period with ceilings
ranging from 4 to 6 kft. Fair weather cumulus will develop during
the afternoon as a weak high builds in behind the exiting wave.
May see some isolated rain showers during the afternoon, but have
not included in the latest TAF set as this activity should not be
as widespread as the past few days. Leaned on the latest
NAM/RAP/HRRR guidance for this TAF set.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  69  49  71 /  50  30   0  30
INL  46  68  44  72 /  10  20   0  40
BRD  51  71  50  75 /  60  10  10  40
HYR  49  70  46  76 /  40  40   0  20
ASX  50  70  48  74 /  50  40   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WL
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL