372
FXUS63 KDLH 240528
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1228 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures will prevail this week before warming
heading into the weekend.

- Rainfall chances return Wednesday and persist into Friday. Heavy
rainfall possible across northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Elongated low pressure was located over northwestern Ontario early
this afternoon with a cold front trailing from northern Lake
Superior into western Upper Michigan, central Wisconsin, Iowa, and
into the Central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms were observed
along the front across Upper Michigan and Wisconsin while high
pressure stretched from the northern Rockies into the northern High
Plains. Cloud cover lingered behind the cold front across the Upper
Midwest. This cloud cover is expected to diminish heading into
tonight with cooler and less humid air moving into the region. Lows
tonight will cool into the 40s and 50s after highs today in the 70s
and lower 80s.

High pressure moves through the region on Tuesday bringing dry and
mainly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 70s with 60s near Lake
Superior. Rainfall chances return Wednesday as a warm front and
southwest flow aloft bring a slug of moisture northward. The best
chances will be Thursday into Thursday night as the upper trough
swings through the region with rainfall chances ending Friday
morning as it departs. Widespread severe storms are not currently
expected with this system, but there is a low end threat for some
stronger storms on Thursday if the warm sector can reach into our
southern areas. The bigger threat with this system will be the
potential for heavy rainfall. Forecast PWATs of 1.5-1.8" will work
into the region ahead of the system with the highest amounts along
and south of US2 across northwest Wisconsin. 48-hour NBM rainfall
probabilities of >1" remain around 30-50% in northwest Wisconsin but
decrease to the north. Temperatures during the Wednesday-Thursday
period will remain near normal in the 60s and 70s.

Temperatures will warm above normal for Friday through the weekend
with highs in the 70s and 80s. Saturday will be the warmest day with
widespread lower to middle 80s. There will be periodic chances for
showers and storms through the weekend as well, but timing and
placement remain in question given model variability and
inconsistency.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions prevail this TAF period under light northwest
winds shifting southerly after 12-18Z inland and easterly along
Lake Superior shorelines.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Northwest winds continue this afternoon, calming overnight and
becoming southwesterly Tuesday.  They should swing back around to
the northeast Wednesday, with some gusts up to 15 knots possible.
Those northeast winds are then expected to strengthen further
Thursday along with some showers and thunderstorms possible. With
the return of more humidity late week, we could also see patchy
dense fog come back as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Levens