Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 152000
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SW IOWA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SFC LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE FA. AS A RESULT...THE WIND...WHAT LITTLE THERE IS...WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS UP A BIT OVER THE N. COOLER MIN TEMPS WILL OCCUR OVER NW
WI TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND THE EASTERN IRON RANGE. PATCHY FROST
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THESE AREAS WITH MORE FROST IN NW WI. WILL
KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR WEAK WAA THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MORE
CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION THAN TODAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO JUST N OF THE BORDER. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF RIGHT AT THE BORDER...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A
CONSENSUS FOR POPS. DID ADD A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY...AND THE BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ILLINOIS.
THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH ONTARIO AND MANITOBA.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY ON. THE COLD FRONT IN
CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHLAND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN KICK IN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS FAR AS
INDICATING THIS COULD BE A WET AND STORMY PERIOD AND WITH THE TIMING
OF THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT...BUT THE MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT
INDICATIONS OF WHERE IDEAS OF WHERE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY FLOW FILTERS DOWN COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH/FRONT. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY
OVER THE ARROWHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NW TO NNW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING W TO WSW WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE RISK OF FOG/MIST TONIGHT LOOKS VERY LOW CONSIDERING HOW DRY
CONDITIONS ARE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING
WNW WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS AROUND OR BELOW 2 KFT BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...LEFT
OUT WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST...BUT MIGHT NEED TO ADD THIS AT A
LATER POINT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  65  45  59 /   0   0  10  20
INL  40  64  41  60 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  41  66  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  35  64  42  66 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  37  67  45  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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