Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 052209
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT 400 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...WE WERE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE TEENS. IN FACT...A FEW
PLACES HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 20 ABOVE...AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
HAVE CHOPPED A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI. COULD STILL
SEE SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS...BUT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERNIGHT
LOWS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT WAA
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THERE WAS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. COULD GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...BUT THINK THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB EVEN FURTHER...WITH 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
TIMING LOOKING BETTER BETWEEN MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE TROUGHS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY YIELDING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE SNOW EVENT. TOTAL
SNOWFALL FROM THESE TWO EVENTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MINNESOTA IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS INTO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. ECMWF WAS
THE HOLDOUT AMONG THE LONG RANGE PROGS AS OF THIS MORNING...BUT HAS
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE GEM/GFS SOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINK MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
RECENT COLD STRETCH AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK...BUT HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  31  19  31 /  10  10  40  10
INL   1  29  15  28 /  10  10  40  20
BRD   2  34  21  34 /   0  10  30  10
HYR  -2  31  21  32 /   0  10  30  10
ASX   5  32  23  33 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






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