Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 241732 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDER SINCE NEW MODELS ARE INDICATING NEARLY NO SUPPORT FOR
THUNDER...INCLUDING LITTLE OR NO CAPE. MIGHT ALSO BACK OFF ON
THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NAM12/SREF/GEMREG HAVE
NEARLY NO CAPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT...AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
SITUATED NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ALONG A NWD PROGRESSING EMBEDDED S/W
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK WAVE TRIES TO OVERTAKE THE DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DRAW UP A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE REGION...EVEN 24-36 HOURS
OUT. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FURTHER NORTH.

AN ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN INITIATED BY MODEST WAA WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE
THE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
T-STORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL...AS CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NW WI. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOME TIME ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE E/NE THROUGH THE
DAY AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEFORMATION
ZONE TO THE N AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A NORTHEAST WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO INVADE THE TWIN
PORTS AREA INTO THE EVENING. AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S QUICKLY TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NE WINDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...WHICH WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER AROUND THE DULUTH
AREA AND NOT AS PLEASANT WITH RAINY...WINDY...COLD AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN INTO
EARLY WEEK WILL GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING MONDAY...
BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS PRETTY UNSETTLED AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING HIGHER
QPF INTO THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S...BUT SHOULD COOL INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TAF
SITES...BUT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY SPRINKLES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. THE RAIN COULD
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR OR EVENING IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  49  60  50 /  20  90 100  60
INL  78  50  70  49 /   0  30  60  60
BRD  67  54  66  52 /  50  80  90  60
HYR  70  54  69  55 /  60  90  90  50
ASX  71  48  67  51 /  30 100  90  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP





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