Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 021808 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
108 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED VORTS...OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AS A RESULT OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT...AND AROUND
1000 J/KG OF SB CAPE TO TAP INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER/TSTM COULD BE TRIGGERED ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE BEST CHC FOR A FEW
STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE KEPT SMALL
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LATEST BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE LINGERS IN THIS REGION AS A
TRANSITION TO WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES OVER MN. A RETURN FLOW AND
WARMING H85 TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTHLAND BECOMES
SITUATED INT HE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PUSHING INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP INTO SOUTHEAST MB BY 12Z THURSDAY.
PWAT VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 1.6 INCHES AHEAD THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW STABILITY WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
AS WELL. WARM LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
REGION...WITH 700MB VALUES FROM 10C TO 12C OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND BY 12Z THU. THESE WARM TEMPS MAY SUPPRESS OR CAP
CONVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE SOUTH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT DID NOT ELIMINATE THEM FOR NOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MOST OF
MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z FRIDAY...THEN EXIT OUR
CWA THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AS LOW STABILITY AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ALREADY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS...BUT MORE SO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.
SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER DRY THOUGH...SO WE LIMITED POPS TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE. WE EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR SEVENTY AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS
TO THE LOWER EIGHTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SIXTIES ON FRIDAY THEN WARM TO THE
UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN AREA OF RW/TRW TO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT
OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE SO AM EXPECTING A FEW AMENDMENTS IN
NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE MAINLY A VFR FORECAST.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  56  73  62 /  20  20  50  60
INL  72  49  75  57 /  30  30  30  50
BRD  75  55  77  65 /  20  20  50  60
HYR  73  54  79  64 /  20  10  40  70
ASX  75  56  80  63 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CANNON






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