000
FXUS63 KDLH 131132 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
632 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WERE MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND MAY IMPACT KHYR FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

VERY QUIET WEATHER TODAY ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD ARE AROUND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
RESULTING SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND AN ABUNDANT SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AGAIN TODAY. LOOK FOR TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREA AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO PUSH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ELONGATED AND EXTEND FROM
SWRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA...AND
LIFT TO THE E/NE INTO WRN MN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DURING THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH ENOUGH WAA TO POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MN COUNTIES
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE E/NE WINDS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND POSSIBLY
A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND OTHER INLAND AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS WARM
INTO THE 70S QUICKLY LATE FRI MORNING...AND THEN COOL DOWN WITH
THE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK FRONT OR MORE OF A TROUGH INTO
MINNESOTA WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WITH 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS
WITH A LOW END SEVERE THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT...WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
THERE WAS AN AREA OF LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE ARROWHEAD. THESE CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR AND
POSSIBLY KINL. WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL
AREAS AS THESE CLOUDS THIN OR LIFT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  50  68  52 /   0   0  10  60
INL  75  51  73  52 /   0   0  20  60
BRD  77  53  74  61 /   0  10  40  60
HYR  75  46  76  57 /   0   0  10  70
ASX  67  44  70  52 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM....MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE