Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240801
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
301 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WAS
MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR. THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINED
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA NORTH INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF THE
07Z SPC MESOANALYSIS. A LLJ SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO INCREASE AS WELL. WE EXPECT STRONG STORMS WITH A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHLAND FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS SUGGEST THE STORMS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EAST INTO FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST AND WAS
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND OUR EASTERN WISCONSIN ZONES. QUESTION
THEN TURNS TO REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
NEAR CRANE LAKE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA AT
18Z...THEN BE IN THE ARROWHEAD TO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z SAT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH. THE MODELS DO FORECAST PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND 35 TO 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE RAP/NAM/GFS ALL FORECAST PLENTY OF CLOUDS
THOUGH WHICH MAY KEEP SBCAPE/MLCAPE LOWER THAN FORECAST.

STORMS CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE
OUT BY 06Z.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MAINLY DRY. WE DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
WE WILL POP SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THAT
AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PIECES OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH MN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE.
LACKING GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED. ON SUNDAY...A BIT STRONGER IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AND MAY GLANCE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. HAVE LOW POPS THERE AS A RESULT. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS BEGINS TO SUFFER FROM GRIDSCALE/CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND HAVE IGNORED ITS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS UPPER RIDING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY. HOWEVER...THE GEM
IS ALSO SUFFERING A BIT FROM FEEDBACK. REGARDLESS...HAVE SOME POPS
OVER A PORTION OF THE REGION AS A BLEND. THE REGION IS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST...AND A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH SOME ENERGY
REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. HAVE POPS
ALIGNED FOR THESE FEATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FINDS THE
REGION AFFECTED BY A LARGE CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...WILL PUSH
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH DAY BREAK. PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  62  86  65 /  70  20  10   0
INL  81  57  86  59 /  60  10  10  10
BRD  85  59  87  62 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  82  60  86  60 /  50  30   0   0
ASX  83  62  86  61 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING


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