Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 220538
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH NW WI. SHOWERS ARE
DIMINISHING AND SHOULD END COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

925-850 MB MOIST LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ISSUE TONIGHT IS TEMPS AND SKY COVER
TRENDS. CLEARING MAKING DECENT PROGRESS INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION AND DO EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD ADVANCE OF CLEARING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ALL OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. DID
DELAY CLEARING A TAD FROM THIS EARLY MORNINGS FCST. LOWS TONIGHT
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD TRENDS. BUT COLDEST VALUES IN THE INTL
FALLS AREA WITH 20S WHILE REST OF THE AREA STAYS IN THE LOW-MID
30S.

FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FRI AFTN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WATERS WITH THESE CLOUDS THICKENING UP
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOP IN A 850 MB
WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE ONTARIO BORDER. PTYPE WOULD BE LIGHT
SNOW MORE THAN LIKELY. SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP FROM SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS WITH SOME 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHILE NORTH OF THE
FRONT 50S AND SOME 60S. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO IOWA SUN-MON AND OUR AREA ON THE NRN EDGE OF MOISTURE
AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES IN NORTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO.
LOOKS CLOUDY SUN-MON WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY
EAST WINDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOW
TO OUR SOUTH...MAKING FOR A RAW DAY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SIMILAR UPPER LOW/SFC LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
IOWA.  TEMPS REMAINING MOST DAYS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

IFR CIGS IN NW WI AS LOW CLOUDS STREAM OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MVFR
ELSEWHERE AT THE START OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INL
WHICH STARTS VFR. LOOK FOR THE MVFR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  47  28  50 /  30   0   0  30
INL  28  54  30  55 /   0   0  20  50
BRD  36  60  37  68 /  10   0   0  30
HYR  34  53  31  61 /  30   0   0  20
ASX  35  46  28  57 /  30   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...WFO DLH
LONG TERM...WFO DLH
AVIATION...GSF



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