Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 191600
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1050 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

The surface ridge axis extends from Lake Huron through IL to
Arkansas. Very dry air under the high will give us full sun,
pushing highs up into the 70s. Analysis of the 12z ILX sounding, mixing
down from 850 mb would put highs near the mid 70s, or a few
degrees warmer than our forecast highs. Highs yesterday reached
near 70 and increasing southeast winds will increase low level
warm advection slightly. Will increase highs a couple degrees
across the board, and keep afternoon dewpoints in the 30s to near
40. Relative humidity levels will drop to around 15% in areas,
which will be very dry for fire weather concerns. Lower winds will
help prevent the need for a red flag warning, but caution should
be observed with outdoor fires.

The remainder of today`s forecast grids are on track. Updated
info will be available shortly.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conditions will continue through tonight. High pressure will
drift slowly off to our east during this period allowing surface
winds to veer more into a southeast direction today at 10 to 15 kts.
Other than some sct-bkn cirrus, not much in the way of cloud cover
is expected thru tonight.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night

A nice Easter weekend lies ahead across central and southeast IL
with partly to mostly sunny skies. Mild highs mostly in the lower 70s
this afternoon (few upper 60s far ne CWA) and mid 70s Sunday and
Monday.

1035 mb Canadian high pressure over central Ontario was ridging
southward across the western great lakes into IL early this
morning and providing fair skies with ene winds 5-15 mph. Temps
range from upper 30s ne of I-74 to around 50F along highway 50 in
se IL. Patches of cirrus clouds dropping sse across central IL
while cirrus shield from 1011 mb low pressure near the eastern
GA/FL border staying se of IL. 1004 mb surface low pressure was
over southern Saskatchewan and into the central Dakotas with
developing waa pattern ahead of this storm system west of the MS
river.

High pressure over Ontario to drift east into Quebec tonight and
ridge sw into the Ohio and mid MS river valley and keep fair wx
over IL. A fair amount of sunshine and ene winds turning se toward
afternoon to boost highs into the lower 70s this afternoon with a
few upper 60s far ne CWA. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s over
eastern IL to near 50F from Peoria and Springfield west toward the
ms river valley. Warm highs in the mid 70s Easter Sunday with
partly to mostly sunny skies and southerly winds.

Low pressure passing north of area Monday to keep us in the warm
sector again on Monday with highs back in the 70s. Chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms to increase from west to east
during the day Monday and then decrease from west to east during
Monday night after cold frontal passage.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday

Upper level ridge already building into IL Tue night and Wed to
keep highs in the mid to upper 60s so not that much cooler than
this weekend. Stronger storm system to impact the region from Wed
night into Friday with good chance of showers and thunderstorms
with highest chances Thu night. Temps that warm into the upper 60s
to mid 70s Thu/Fri to cool off Friday night and Saturday behind
the cold front.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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