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000
FXUS63 KILX 151753
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1044 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014

15z/10am surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary draped
across central Illinois, generally along the I-72 corridor. Skies
across much of the KILX CWA are clear, with mid-cloud deck
associated with upper-level front focused further north across
northern Illinois. Models keep this boundary nearly stationary
today, while 700mb frontogenesis strengthens further north across
Iowa into northern Illinois later this afternoon/evening. Based on
forecast soundings showing plenty of dry air remaining in place,
think skies will be sunny throughout the day except across the far
north from the Peoria area northward, where partly sunny
conditions will prevail. Temps will be a bit tricky today, as
advection will be weak. Despite abundant sunshine, light N/NE
winds to the north of the stationary front will keep locations
from Galesburg to Bloomington northward in the upper 40s and lower
50s. Meanwhile, light southerly flow well south of the front will
boost highs into the lower 60s south of I-70. Have made some
adjustments to hourly temp/sky grids and afternoon highs. Zone
update will be issued shortly.


Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014

As the pressure gradient tightens in advance of an approaching
storm system, northeasterly winds will increase and become gusty
by this evening. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest
gusts potentially reaching 25 to 30kt from mid-evening through
Sunday afternoon. High-res models are showing a band of light snow
developing across northern Iowa into northern Illinois this
evening, then sinking southward into parts of central Illinois
overnight. Precip will have to overcome the dry NE flow in place,
so am skeptical how far south this band can make it. Will follow
the NAM most closely, which brings a period of MVFR ceilings and
light snow to KPIA and KBMI between about 07z and 14z. Further
south and east, will only lower ceilings to low VFR and mention
VCSH as the light snow dissipates Sunday morning.

Barnes
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

Another pleasant day expected today as mid level clouds increase
across northern areas while ample sunshine southern areas today.
Highs range from lower 50s from I-74 north to upper 50s and lower
60s sw areas and in southeast IL. Lighter winds expected today as
weak high pressure ridge is near IL today.

00Z GFS & NAM models have trended further south with low pressure
tracking east across southern AR and passsing south of TN Sunday
and Sunday night. Therefore qpf fields have trended further south
and have lowered snowfall amounts to 1-2 inches in far southern 3
counties of Clay, Richland and Lawrence. Still have a mix of
precipitation initially before changing to snow sunday afternoon
and light snow diminishing over southeast IL during Sunday evening.
The IL river valley could see a chance of light snow tonight into
early Sunday morning and then models weaken and end qpf fields
over northern counties Sunday as drier air moves in on ene winds
around 1030 mb high pressure settling into the Great Lakes region.
Increase ne wind speeds tonight and Sunday due to tighter pressure
gradient over central and southern IL with gusts of 25 to 35 mph
expected. Much colder temperatures Sunday with highs in the lower
30s and near 30F from I-74 north.

Temperatures modify Monday and especially Tue (highs in the mid to
upper 50s) with increasing southerly winds ahead of a strong upper
level trof and deepening surface low pressure ejecting ne into the
western Great Lakes Wed. This to bring a chance of rain showers
Tuesday night and Wed.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Friday

Dry conditions return during 2nd half of next work week. Highs in
the upper 40s and lower 50s Wed/Thu modify back into the mid to
upper 50s on Friday. GFS does have light qpf into IL Friday as a
cold front approaches IL while ECMWF model keeps its ligth qpf north
of central IL with surface low pressure. Both models are milder and
if light precip occurred it would be warm enough for light rain
showers.

07


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$