Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230808
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
308 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Main concern for today revolves around how much (if any) rainfall is
expected, as well as how soon it will arrive. Line of showers
upstream along a decaying cold front currently extends from the
upper Midwest into the central Plains. The front and driving upper
wave have not been making very quick progress to the east due to the
blocking upper low along the east coast and the weakening ridge
overhead it is trying to push into. This scenario should continue to
slow the arrival of the upstream front, as well as support its
continued weakening. With this thinking in mind, supported by a
strong consensus of the models, have removed all PoPs from this
morning, and limited them to slight chance for the afternoon across
northern 1/2 of forecast area (southern 1/2 of forecast area stays
dry). The slower arrival of the clouds and minimal precipitation
threat with this system should also allow temperatures to warm a bit
more than previously expected, with most locations able to make it
into the 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shower threat to diminish quickly this evening as the wave passes,
as forecast soundings near Champaign only show a moist layer about
2000 feet thick and quickly eroding from the top down. However,
clouds will be slower to exit as a weak wave moves in behind the
initial one.

Dry frontal passage expected Friday night, as what little
precipitation is shown by the models stays to our north. The cooler
air lags behind this front some distance, so highs 70-75 are still
anticipated for Saturday. While Sunday briefly cools off with the
arrival of a fast moving high, the warming trend kicks in again
early next week.

Main focus for rain in the longer term remains with a broad trough
that will be emerging from the Rockies Monday evening. Latest ECMWF
run is coming more in line with the GFS solution, with better
phasing of this trough in the northern/southern streams. However,
the GFS is a tad faster, spreading rain in most areas late Monday
night while the ECMWF is more during the day Tuesday. Both models
quickly end the rain from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Until 18Z...expect VFR conditions with winds SE 3-5 kts increasing
to S 8-10g15 kts in the morning. After 18Z...scattered -SHRA
spreading eastward across mainly northern portions of the central
IL forecast area. Isold-sct MVFR ceilings possible mainly KIJX-
KDNV northward as this precipitation spreads across the area, but
MVFR conditions not yet included in TAFS due to timing and storm
track uncertainty. Precipitation ending KPIA-KSPI westward as
early as 00Z Friday, ending throughout central IL by 06Z. Low
ceilings approaching MVFR thresholds continuing.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton






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