Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 232035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
235 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A weak mid level trough and associated vort max will move through
the area late tonight and tomorrow morning. Some models are dry
with this trough and some produce very little qpf. However, in
this kind of environment in the winter, weak troughs with a mid
level vort max, and some lower level cloud cover can easily wring
out some scattered flurries. Since it`s already in the grids, will
be leaving in for late tonight and tomorrow morning, and will just
refine it`s location from northwest to southeast through morning.

Temps will be around normal through the period.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Behind the trough, ridging will begin to build back into the area
and bring dry weather for Wed night through Friday. A weather
system will develop and move across the area Friday night through
Sat night. Models differ on what the surface features will look
like and still differ on timing of the precip. Either way, some
showers/rain will move across the area Friday night and Sat. As
cooler air advects into the area, the rain with become mixed with
snow and possibly change to all snow as the precip is ending,
which should be sometime Sat night. Beyond this system, dry
weather returns for the rest of the weekend and into the beginning
of the following week.

Temps through the period will be warming as the ridge builds back
into the area. Then things cool again back to normal behind the
Sat system on Sunday, then begins to moderate back up some by
Tuesday of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

MVFR cigs will continue this afternoon and through tonight. Those
models are optimistic with bringing in some clearing this evening,
based on satellite loops and seeing lower clouds extending back
through MO, believe clear/scattering out of clouds will not occur
til tomorrow...maybe. So will be keeping MVFR clouds longer than
previous forecast. IFR clouds will likely continue for a while and
DEC IFR clouds are likely a result of the local affect of the ADM
plant/clouds. Winds a little gusty today out of the west but will
decrease early this evening. Will have the scattering of clouds to
occur tomorrow morning with winds still out of the west with light
wind speeds.




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