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000
FXUS63 KILX 112101
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2013

Main concerns today is the wind chill conditions overnight tonight
and then the Friday to Saturday storm.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Morning upper air shows the minor clipper shortwave that moved
across northern IL this morning. Through the day today, tail end
of the wave has produced some snowshowers over the CWA in left
over moisture behind the front, and the deep cold air aloft in
strong cold advection at 850mb.

Main concern focused on today is the developing upper system that
moves through the southern rockies and comes out by Friday.
Surface inverted trough sets up from Ok over Mo into northwest IL
by midday on Friday, with isentropic lift over MO. Models now
coming together better on the timing of the lift and pcpn
development over MO, spreading slowly into western IL by late
afternoon on Friday. Have modified the QPF some for the location
of the pcpn moving into western IL, which should be all snow. Best
lift overnight Friday night as the upper wave comes out of Rockies
through the southern plains, increasig the moist flow and lift
into the mid MS valley region. Inverted trough moves east
overnight, with the main snow over cwa during the 00-12z
timeframe. Have kept a mixture in the southeast area Friday
afternoon and into the evening, dropping the mixture Friday night
due to latest sounding profiles. Modified the HPC QPF some, with
the result being a general 2.5 to 4 inch range for region.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
Trough moves off to the east in the morning Saturday and so the
QPF will go also, with some light pcpn possible into afternoon
before ending. Dry period for the following few days, remaining
cold with only a couple minor fronts moving through, but being too
dry for any real pcpn.

Goetsch
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2013

Arctic cold front extending from central IN into southeast IL se
of I-70 and southeast MO will pass southeast of the Wabash river
early this afternoon. A few light snow showers behind this cold
front will affect areas especially se of the IL river the next
hour or two with vsbys down to 5 miles and MVFR ceilings of 1-3k
ft til 20-21Z. Brisk nw winds 12-17 kts with gusts 20-27 kts this
afternoon to diminish 5-8 kts this evening and turn sw overnight
and increase to 10-14 kts Thu morning. Strong 1041 mb arctic high
pressure over ne Kansas to settle se into the mid MS valley and
Ozarks by Thu morning and bring clear skies tonight and Thu.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Thursday
FOR ILZ027>031-037-038.

&&

$$