Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 022305
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE
FRONT HAS THUS FAR BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MICHIGAN...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TRACKS E/SE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.  WITH STRONGEST LIFT REMAINING WELL N/NE OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE KILX CWA
TONIGHT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU-FIELD
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND I-55.  THIS MAY
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TRACKING OUT OF IOWA.  AS
THIS AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING MUCH LIKE THE RAPID REFRESH IS ADVERTISING.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN-URBANA LINE FROM MID-EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKS FURTHER
EASTWARD...ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AT 300MB OVER REGION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES VISIBLE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.
FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING
FEW STORMS. MAIN WAVE OVER MN MOVING SOUTHEAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BUT IT IS LIMITED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN STATES HAS DEEP
MOISTURE CUTOFF FROM MOVING NORTHWEARD THROUGH MS VALLEY. EDGE OF
850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z OVER CENTRAL IL, HAS APPARENTLY MOVED ITS WAY
TO EAST DURING DAY, AND IS MINOR TRIGGER FOR MINOR AREA OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH DEWITT COUNTY AT 19Z. SURFACE DATA SHOWS MAIN FRONT
INOT NORTHWEST IA, PUSHED TO SOUTHEAST BY MN WAVE.

FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BOUNDARY
REACHES CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT, WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY, SO MAINLY DRY IN CWA.

STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THEN BECOMES THE LINGERING
FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPMENT
MON NIGHT AND INCREASING POPS INTO TUES AS RETURN MOISTURE FLOW
MOVES BACK INTO REGION. BEST PCPN CHANCES ARE TUES NIGHT, WED, AND
WED NIGHT AS ALL GFS, EUR, CANADIAN MODELS PICK UP ON MINOR
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WITH LINGERING FRONT AND THE WAVE SUPPORT,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR BEST PCPN CHANCES. BY THUR, THE UPPER FLOW
APPEARS TO GO BACK TO NORTHWEST AND MODELS START HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN FROM NORTH, DRYING THINGS OUT BY FRI. FRI TO SUN APPEAR TO
BE COOL AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SW WISCONSIN TO SW IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KDSM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER AS THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS IN A REGION OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE...MODELS
GENERALLY WEAKEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL IL...FOCUSING LIFT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA-KBMI-KCMI STARTING 3-5Z...ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT TIMING AND OCCURRANCE AT THESE
TERMINALS. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SET IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS FROM 9-12Z THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
WINDS SW 10-12 KTS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 9-12Z...BECOMING NW
8-10 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON


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