Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 010801
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN ONTARIO CANADA...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS. CHILLY NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE HIGH
WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY...WITH THE HELP OF
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTHEAST OF ILLINOIS FROM OHIO TO ARKANSAS. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THAT FRONT...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING FOR OUR COUNTIES
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS. MEASURABLE RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER...JUST TRACE AMOUNTS.

NORTHEAST FLOW USUALLY PROVIDES A DRYING INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY. AREAS NORTH OF PEORIA TO
BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN INTO THE CLOUD LAYER.
DESPITE THE PREVAILING CLOUDS...SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY
OVER YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

PROMINENT UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MAKE IT
TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL SUPPRESS ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL OOZE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...AND BY FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER WAVE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE
FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT THE OLD ONE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS IN POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO FORM BY LATE FRIDAY
AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE ILLINOIS RIVER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. TIMING
OF THE PRECIP DEPARTURE ON SATURDAY IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY...WITH 80 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS 80-85 LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT PIA...WHILE MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS
WERE REPORTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MOST OF OUR TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR THRU TOMORROW MORNING WITH EVEN PIA GOING
BACK TO AN MVFR CAT AFTER 06Z FOR A FEW HOURS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST
SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWEST FROM A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST STARTS TO EAT AWAY AT THE LOWER CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOMORROW WITH PIA BEING THE FIRST TO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS IDEA AS OF YET
AS SOUNDING DATA OFF THE NAM MODEL STILL INDICATING MOST OF OUR
AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST BKN CIGS. MOST OF THE DATA NOW SUGGESTS
WE WILL SEE CIGS LIFT TO LOW VFR BY AFTERNOON. WILL EDGE IN THAT
DIRECTION...ESP IN PIA AND SPI...AND BE A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE
WITH CIGS FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 12 KTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KTS ON MONDAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH


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