Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 112338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
538 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A strong cold front is currently making its way across the
forecast area. West to northwest gusts in excess of 40 mph have
been occurring behind the front, especially in the downward
momentum surge immediately behind the front. These relatively
strong gusts will linger into at least midday Tuesday given the
strong CAA and tight surface pressure gradient behind the front.
The cold advection will help push tomorrow`s high temperatures 15
to 20 degrees cooler than those seen today.

Do not expect much precipitation in the wrap-around cloud shield
tonight behind the front, despite current radar indications. Much
of the energy within the upper-level wave driving the front is
shearing off to the east and the precipitation coverage/intensity
has been decreasing. However, a few sprinkles or flurries can`t be
ruled out through this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Northwest upper-level flow will persist across the area into the
weekend. Our recent string of clipper-type waves within this flow
regime will persist, with the next waves expected to arrive around
Wednesday & Friday. However, as has been the case lately, minimal
precipitation is expected with these clippers locally.

The upper-level flow trends more zonal for the weekend. This may
eventually signal a trend toward more moderate temperatures than
we have seen lately. There is a short wave that will approach the
area from the west or southwest by late in the weekend as the
expected pattern shift occurs. However, the model consensus with
respect to the associated precipitation is poor and only have
minimal PoPs at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

MVFR cigs will be advecting over the TAF sites this evening, with
PIA already having cigs below 3kft. All other TAF sites will see
the MVFR cigs arriving in next 1-3 hrs this evening and then
continuing through most of the night. Radar shows returns diving
southeast into the area but also diminishing. See very few sites
reporting snow so will just have VCSH at PIA and BMI, and not at
the other sites. However, all sites will see MVFR cigs below 2kft
tonight. Cigs should begin to rise some, though still MVFR,
around midnight. Skies should begin to scatter out toward morning
and this should last throughout the day. Then high cirrus toward
late afternoon tomorrow. Northwest winds will remain quite gusty
this evening and through the night with a slight decrease
tomorrow. Expecting gusts of 30-33kts at all sites tonight with
gusts around 26kts tomorrow.




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