Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 282030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
230 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Rather large storm system located over the northern Plains and
making its way into the Upper Midwest this afternoon is the dominant
feature on the weather map today.  The cold front associated with it
is slow-moving, while plenty of warm air and moisture streams out of
the south up and into Central Illinois.  This, in combination with a
few shortwaves making their way around the larger scale trof, is
resulting in plenty of showers and thunderstorms for Central
ILlinois.  These showers are anticipated to come to an end later
this evening, clearing from west to east by midnight.  Overnight
lows still well above norms for the end of November.  Winds will
weaken from this afternoon, but still stay a little gusty at least
through the early evening.  Tomorrow will be a much quieter day,
with the skies clearing and temperatures a bit warmer with all the


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The main cold front associated with the weather system that brought
precip to the area will finally move through the CWA Tuesday night.
This will allow more normal temps to be ushered into the area for
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Even with the area
remaining in cyclonic flow through most of the week, dry weather is
expected through the rest of the week and into the first part of the
weekend. High pressure will finally build into the region at the end
of the week and into Sat. For the rest of the weekend, the model
show considerable differences. The ECMWF develops a large weather
system in the southern Miss valley and drives it north-northeast
into the Ohio valley. This solution allows colder air to drop into
the area, resulting in a higher potential of precip for Sat night
through Sun night. Obviously with the colder air, the precip type
would likely be snow. On the other-hand, the GFS just has a weak
wave moving through the zonal flow, through the area. Temperatures
are not colder and the any precip would be light and a probably a
mix of rain and snow, with mainly rain during the daytime hours. Due
to the differences being stark, best to keep a blend of the models
going that far out, keeping pops on the low side in the chance
category. Temps will likely be slightly below normal so precip type
will end up being a mix of rain and snow. This being the second day
in a row of the models being this different leads to low confidence
in the forecast for the nothing to get excited about at
this time.

Again, temps will be above normal again tomorrow, with plenty of
sunshine and less windy. Beyond tomorrow, temps will fall to just
below normal, or around normal, for the remainder of the forecast


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Mainly low IFR conditions across ILX terminals through today, with
BMI dropping to LIFR. Large scale system to the W/NW resulting in
a surge of moisture as a shortwave rotates through the synoptic
trof. Overcast and showers through the short term...with the
occasional rumble of thunder this morning. Blustery southerly
winds gusting to near 30-35kts through today as winds just off the
surface translate down to some extent with the showers, in
addition to a slowly tightening pressure gradient. This afternoons
thunder risk will be scattered, and confidence very low for any
particular terminal. Some improvement expected mid evening with
some vcsh ...better clearing just before midnight. Gusty southerly
winds expected to veer to more southwesterly before becoming more
southerly again tomorrow ahead of the advancing cold front.




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