Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 242111
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Weak system turned out a lot warmer and a little further to the east
with the heavier precipitation today.  Low clouds, rain and the
occasional mix with snow dominated Central Illinois today.  Showers
becoming far and few between as sunset approaches.  Pops are reduced
considerably as the system lifts out of the region. Expecting cloud
cover to remain in place with plenty of llvl moisture and clearing
not seen until west of the Missouri River valley on sat imagery.
Not dropping temps too far, though there is some concern as to
whether or not the lows will even drop that far into the 30s.
Precip ending before midnight as the system  pulls all precip  from
the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

High pressure will build into the region for Christmas Day bringing
dry conditions, but expecting clearing to struggle as an inversion
traps low level moisture. Temperatures will be mild reaching into
the 40s as breezy southerly winds develop due to a gradient between
the high centered to the southeast and approaching low pressure from
the west.

GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in relative agreement with holding off
precipitation until at least Friday evening with the next low
pressure trough and cold front approaching from the west. This
should start out as rain, changing over to snow Saturday as the cold
front crosses the area. However, most precipitation should fall
before the change-over, so not expecting much if any accumulation.

Cooler highs in the 30s on Sunday across region behind the cold
front. Latest model runs keep a consensus for dry conditions under a
low-amplitude high pressure ridge until at least Tuesday morning,
then perhaps another weather system for midweek, however large model
inconsistencies develop by that time indicating large uncertainty.
What does appear more likely is a continued push of northwesterly
flow bringing much colder temperatures as the week wears on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014
Not much in the way of major changes to the TAFs. Some minor
tweaks to lessen impacts to vis as precip not as heavy or
widespread. Still more than enough moisture to keep IFR through
the overnight, slowly breaking out by morning. In the shorter
term, however, terminals mainly MVFR/IFR and a couple of dips down to
LIFR cigs in BMI. For the most part, kept the MVFR/IFR cigs and
vis as consistency is difficult to assess based on obs and sat
info. Northwesterly and gusty today, losing gusts in the
overnight.  More southwesterly in the morning hours.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...HJS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.