Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 232001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

An upper level system will continue to drop south into the TN
valley by tomorrow afternoon. With this cyclonic flow remaining
over the area tonight and tomorrow, scattered showers will
continue over the entire CWA the next 24-36hrs. Isolated
thunderstorms could be possible this evening, but lack of sunshine
this afternoon is keeping instability down. Tomorrow looks like a
better chance of isolated storms, but in the east during the early
afternoon and then the whole area for the late afternoon. Temps
remained on the cool side today and expect the same tomorrow given
the continued cloud cover and precip. So looking for highs
tomorrow only in the mid 60s. Overnight lows will drop into the
50s with the warmest temps of mid to upper 50s in east and
southeast IL.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

As the upper level system begins to lift north into the OH valley,
the chance of precip across the CWA will diminish and push
eastward through Thursday. Isolated storms will be possible, but
precip will mostly be light rain and rain showers Wed night and
Thur. Temps will remain cool Wed night with Thur highs warming
slightly with west central IL reaching into the low to mid 70s.

There will be a break in the precip Thur night and early Fri
morning, but this will be short-lived as sfc wave begins to move
into the area Friday afternoon, bringing another around of showers
and thunderstorms to central and southeast IL. Then the low
pressure area of the system will move into central IL and across
the state Sat through Sun. Additional showers and storms will be
associated with this system Sat with things beginning to diminish
Sunday afternoon through evening. This unsettled pattern will
continue into Memorial Day but dry conditions are currently
expected Monday night into Tuesday.

Temps will finally warm back back up for the holiday weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Rain continues to move through the area this afternoon and as it
does, cigs will drop to IFR at PIA and BMI...and MVFR at
SPI/DEC/CMI. Vis will also drop to around 4-5 miles when the
heaviest rain will occur. There could be a break in the precip
this evening...but will keep at least VCSH at all sites tonight.
The true break in the precip will come during the early morning
hours at all sites. However, some sites will still see IFR to MVFR
clouds through tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable most of
the period.




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