Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 171751
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Cold front is roughly in the vicinity of the IL River Valley this
morning and some very scattered showers are falling apart as they
move into the region. Another patch of showers and the occasional
rumble of thunder are moving south of Interstate 70 as well.
Models persist on periodic showers throughout much of the day,
although not as widespread as previous runs. Keeping the chance
pops in the forecast for most locations, and enough sun to drive
temps up into the 80s again today. Only minor updates to the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Early morning surface map shows our incoming cold front extending
from about Kansas City northeast into the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Convection has been widespread off to our west over the
last several hours, but has not made much headway into Illinois
due to the dry air overhead. Activity in our area should start
picking up toward sunrise, but coverage overall will be on the
wane this morning. By afternoon, redevelopment will be taking
place east of I-55 as the cold front arrives.

The front will stall out as it gets close to the southeast CWA
this evening, then start to lift back north overnight. While most
of the forecast area will get several hours of dry weather, some
additional rain will start to move in late tonight from a
convective complex west of the Mississippi.

Temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals, likely
reaching close to 90 over the far southeast CWA before clouds
thicken up too much this afternoon. The stalling out of the front
will prevent any significantly cooler air moving in tonight,
although areas near Galesburg may dip into the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The upper pattern over Illinois will continue to be out of the
southwest much of the week, with the western trough periodically
digging southward. Significant amplification of the ridge over the
eastern U.S. is expected by late week, which will keep much of the
rain threat to our west. This will also result in the very warm
weather continuing into next weekend. In the meantime, Monday
and Tuesday will feature the best rain chances we`ve had in quite
some time, as a series of shortwaves moves in from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Cold front moving through the region, with mostly VFR conditions
and only a couple obs on the map with MVFR. As a result of that,
and widely scattered precip, keeping the TAFs VFR for now and only
VC mention until more showers materialize. Models hint that
afternoon precip will bring another round...potentially impacting
DEC and CMI. Overnight, NWerly winds becoming lighter and
variable. Guidance is a little lax on the development of vis
reductions, but went with persistence considering the dwpts now,
dropping to IFR

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS



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