Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 080302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Issued at 902 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Skies are clear and winds are out of the west. These conditions
will continue overnight and current forecast has a good handle on
this; so no update planned at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

1031 mb high pressure over central KS and ridging into the mid MS
and lower Ohio river valleys has clear skies over central IL at
mid afternoon. Some stratocumulus clouds lingered in far
southeast IL from Terre Haute to Flora southeast and will clear
out by dusk. Expect clear skies over CWA most of the night with
some increasing mid/high clouds toward sunrise over the IL river
valley. Temps currently only in the 27-33F range with brisk WNW
winds 10-20 mph and some higher gusts. Clear skies and diminishing
west winds by dusk to bring a cold night ahead. Lows generally in
the mid teens with few favored cold spots reaching lower teens
over northern CWA.

Mid level clouds to increase from nw to se over central IL during
the day Friday with southeast IL enjoying more sunshine into the
afternoon. Increasing sw breezes during Friday to moderate high
temperatures into the mid 30s, with upper 30s sw CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

A clipper system over north central Canada dives southeast into
the western Great Lakes Friday evening and into the central Great
Lakes by midday Saturday. 12Z models are fairly consistent in
showing a period of light snow from late Friday evening into early
Saturday morning (especially overnight Friday night) over most of
CWA. Snow accumulations still appear to be under 1 inch, around a
half inch from I-74 ne with little or no snow in sw CWA. Better
chances of snow accumulations over ne IL closer to 1004 mb
surface low pressure moving into sw lower MI by 12Z/6 am Sat.
Lows Fri night in the low to mid 20s, coldest nw of IL river.
Highs Saturday in the upper 20s northern CWA and near 35F far se
by Lawrenceville. Highs Sunday in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

IL established in a NW to NNW upper level flow through much of
next week with strong upper level trof over the eastern states.
This will keep below normal temperatures generally. A clipper
system coming se into area on Monday to bring chances of light
mixed precipitation. Highs Monday in the upper 30s from I-74 north
and mid 40s far sw CWA. Colder weather to return on Tue with yet
another clipper returning chances of light snow showers late Tue
into Tue night especially Tue evening over ne half of CWA. Latest
models are trending drier on Wed and now just have slight chance
of light pcpn Wed afternoon over east central IL. The better
chances of snow appear to be ne of CWa over the Great Lakes region
during middle and later part of next week while temps stay at
seasonably cool levels.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
will be clear through the night, then mid clouds around 10kft will
begin to move into the area by late morning. Expecting broken mid
cigs at PIA around 15z, then BMI and SPI around 17z, then DEC and
CMI around 19z. These mid clouds will remain over the sites
through the afternoon. Winds will be westerly but then become
west-southwest overnight. Winds will then become southwest
tomorrow with speeds of around 10-12kts.




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