Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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586
FXUS63 KILX 200011
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
711 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA DUE TO THESE
WINDS...DELAYING PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE AREA DESPITE MOIST
CONDITIONS AND LIFT ALOFT MOVING IN. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF SPRINGFIELD BY EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT DESPITE STARTING OUT COOL THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WHILE A CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WEAK WAVE COMING IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY WILL NOT
HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE PCPN, BUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PCPN
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR WED EVENING, JUST IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. BEYOND TOMORROW EVENING, DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE US. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST AND ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST AND BUILD AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WEAK WAVES
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST US.
SEVERAL OF THESE WAVES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH EACH WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER, IT IS TOO FAR
OUT TO PIN POINT WHEN IT WILL RAIN AND WHEN IT WILL NOT. SO WILL
HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TEMPS WILL BE
ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THEN TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM BACK UP AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST. AM EXPECTING
MUCH WARMER TEMPS UP TO AROUND 80 FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLOWLY LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM. CURRENT SHORT RANGE
MODELS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON THE SPREAD OF PRECIP INTO THE
RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR OVERNIGHT AND
DELAYING VCSH UNTIL MID MORNING...AND TEMPO FOR -RA BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS



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