Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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169
FXUS63 KILX 040204
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Will be taking a look at the pop/wx grids to clean them up a bit.
Otherwise, current forecast looks on track and has a good handle
on current situation for the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

A Strong shortwave associated with 100kt jet will plunge into the
eastern U.S. trough that has been over the region the past few days.
Relatively strong dynamics with this fast system will have little in
way of deep moisture to work with. An associated cold front will
move across the region after midnight bringing a chance of showers.
The lower layers of the atmosphere are relatively dry and
precipitation amounts should be less than a quarter of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Upper low forecast to dive south-southeast into the lower Great
Lakes on Wednesday with the associated cold front and shower
activity expected to be southeast of our forecast area during
the morning. However, 500 mb temperatures forecast to drop to
between -24C to -27C by afternoon over roughly the eastern half
of the forecast area. Will continue to hold onto scattered
showers for the afternoon with some thunder possible as well due
to the steep mid level lapse rates. Seeing some occasional
lightning this afternoon with the deep trof just north of Lake
Superior so will continue to hold with the thunder mention,
especially across the east where the temperatures aloft are the
coldest. The upper low should drift off to our east tomorrow night
with high pressure settling into the region for a couple of quiet
days for Thursday and Friday. After a rather cool couple of
days/nights for Wednesday and Thursday, we should see a nice
warmup for Friday and the weekend when the mercury will rise back
into the 70s, with a few 80s possible ahead of a cool front
Saturday afternoon.

The short lived omega block will begin to break down towards the
end of the week as a vigorous northern stream upper wave shifts
southeast into the upper Great Lakes by Saturday This will drive
another cold front into our area by Saturday afternoon with most
models now suggesting the trof amplifying to our east late
Saturday into Sunday will be strong enough to push the front
further south than earlier expected on Sunday. This would normally
shift the better rain chances further south as well but because a
couple of models have a further north solution to the boundary and
higher POPs, the consensus has mentionable POPs for Sunday into
early Sunday evening, although lower than what we had before,
before the boundary starts to edge back north Sunday night and
Monday resulting in 30-40 Pops CWA-wide again. If this further
south solution continues with the next several runs, we may be
able to lower POPs over most of the area on Sunday. Unfortunately,
with the evolving pattern late in the weekend and especially for
the first half of next week, it appears there will be a daily
threat for showers and thunderstorms through at least next
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Skies will become scattered this evening, ahead of the next short
wave bringing pcpn to the area later tonight. Could be some
clouds, but think they will be cirrus, so no need to mention.
Believe HRRR model has a good handle on movement of the pcpn into
and through the area tonight, so followed its timing with pcpn
getting to PIA first around 05z, then SPI and BMI around 06z, then
CMI and DEC around 07z. Will have VCSH at all sites and then a
TEMPO group at for 3-4hrs where vis is lower due to showers and
slightly lower cigs. Besides the showers, VFR conditions will
prevail at all sites next 24hrs. After the pcpn, clouds will
become scattered or clear remainder of the night and early
morning. With cyclonic flow continuing tomorrow, clouds will
return and thicken, but only at DEC/CMI and BMI. In addition,
short term models indicate that more showers could be possible at
these three sites, so have included more VCSH. Winds will be
southwest ahead of the trough, but then become northwest and then
northerly tomorrow. Winds will become gusty as well.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten



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