Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 280814
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Surface high pressure over Wisconsin early this morning will build
and move southeastward across northeast Illinois toward Indiana
today. As it does so, light northeasterly winds that have been
affecting central IL will veer toward southeasterly, but remain
light due to the weak pressure gradients around the high center.
Mostly clear skies will accompany the high, although some mid and
high clouds will likely affect western Illinois early in the day as
a shortwave trough digs southeastward west of the Mississippi River.
A cold air mass will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region
and Illinois bringing another very cool day with highs ranging from
around 40 in northeastern portions of the forecast area including
Bloomington and Champaign, to around 45 in the southwest, including
Jacksonville.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Another chilly night tonight as the cold air is slow to move out of
the region.  Winds becoming more southerly overnight and into
Sunday.  Flow ushering in some warmer air for the end of the
weekend, at least briefly...until another system moves through the
Midwest. System center well to the north, but dragging a front
through central Illinois. Rain chances accompanying the front for
majority of Sunday and Sunday evening before coming to an end before
dawn on Monday morning.  Winds aloft at 925mb in the 40-45kts range
on BUFKit soundings and could end up mixing down partially with the
precip on Sunday afternoon. Blustery gray and rainy day in store for
Sunday as a result...almost negating the small warmup offered by the
southerly winds.  Monday and Tuesday have the chance to get up to
upper 50s/lower 60s as the cold trof finally exits east and some of
the heat from  underneath the western ridging edges into the
Midwest.
Next system moving into the Midwest is a bit of a mess...with the
GFS and ECMWF with some major differences.  The GFS is faster and
more progressive with the system initially.  The 00z ECMWF is in a
little better agreement than the 12Z run, at least with the initial
front, although clearing slower Thursday night.  However the biggest
discrepancies happen in the wake of that boundary as the upper trof
has not lifted out of the region and another wave is rotating around
bringing another round of precip.  ECMWF is more widespread and
persistent with the precipitation.  As a result, the SuperBlend in
the extended is dominated by precip, even as the slower solution for
Wednesdays system helped to eliminate some pops for Wednesday.
Concern for Thursday and beyond...that the max temps are far too
warm considering the cloud cover and potential for ongoing precip.
Climatology is pulling much higher this time of year as well. Have edged
a couple of the grids down a degree when possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. High pressure
will dominate the weather through the period, providing minimal
cloud cover and generally light winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak






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