Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 140822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
322 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Moisture channel imagery and upper air analysis depicts main short
wave over southern ID which will be track east next 24 hours and
triggering surface low development on surface frontal boundary.
This boundary extending from east central KS over northern MO into
northeast IL. As the upper short wave moves east, low center
expected to deepen and move northeast along frontal zone. This
will keep central IL CWa in warm sector today, with southern low
level flow of moist air into region. Only scattered storms
possible over northwest 1/3 of region today, as focus of
convergence on front, northwest of region today.

Low center to strengthen and move into eastern IA by this evening,
with main instability and shear in warm sector, just to the north
of CWA. Best pcpn and chance of severe in early evening in good
shear and instability just to northwest of area. Then as the low
continues by late evening, moving into southern WI, it will pull
cold front east over southeast IA and MO. Best chance of severe
will therefore be along and ahead of the front, in the late
afternoon and evening, mainly west of IL River, and then by late
evening in the area west of I-55. Front will track east overnight,
but low level instability should no longer be surface based, and
so isolated wind and possible hail may still linger will storms
ahead of front.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Front will finally clear region in morning hours with lingering
pcpn ending. Gusty winds through the day. Cold air flows in Sunday
night. High pressure will be in control of weather pattern through
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A frontal boundary extending from Wisconsin into the central
Plains will develop increased shower and thunderstorm activity
tonight as low level flow strengthens. Showers and thunderstorms
will potentially arrive at the central IL terminals ranging from
around 11Z at KPIA to 14Z at KSPI-KDEC-KCMI. Higher chances for
thunderstorms will arrive late in the forecast period as the cold
front approaches from the northwest, and included predominant SHRA
with VCTS starting 00Z at KPIA, 01Z at KBMI-KSPI, and 03Z at
KDEC-KCMI. Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the
period, however isolated MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible in
thunderstorms. Winds S-SE 6-10 kts through the period, except
strong and gusty winds possible in thunderstorms, especially after




SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
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