Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 220519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1219 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Issued at 910 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Widespread light rain south of I-70 is tapering off a bit late
this evening as the wave responsible for the enhancement of
precipitation moves eastward. Still, with the warm frontal surface
aloft over the area, will continue to see a few light showers
until early morning when the next upper wave approaches bringing
more widespread showers with somewhat heavier amounts. The going
forecast doesn`t need much adjusting for precipitation chances or
timing. Chances from early morning through noon reach as far north
as Jacksonville to Paris with just a slight chance as far north as
Lincoln to Champaign. Breezy northeast winds primarily 10 to 15
mph tonight with a few higher gusts into the 20s. Cool
temperatures currently ranging from upper 40s to lower 50s should
cool to lower and mid 40s as northeast winds draw in a cool
Canadian air mass.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

This afternoon, high pressure continues to build into the northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest.  Yesterdays cold front has
drifted south of the Ohio River Valley, with northerly winds behind
it and plenty of cirrus limiting the diurnal swing with the temps
for Central Illinois.  For the overnight hours, expecting the
moderate cirrus to remain in place for much of the state...with
another wave of precip moving into the region from the SW and mostly
impacting areas along and south of I-70.  Either way, temperatures
remain moderate overnight, only dropping into the low to mid 40s.
For tomorrow, similar forecast to today with northerly winds keeping
the temperatures cool, and another upper level disturbance moving
through the Ohio River Valley, maintaining the precip along and
south of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Forecast slowly dries out Sat night and into Sunday as a wave out of
the northwest dives into the weak trof aloft, briefly amplifying the
wave pattern over the eastern half of the CONUS and moving out to
the east. Sunday will be mostly dry, sunny, and far more seasonable
for Spring, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Pleasant weather continuing through Monday with mostly sunny skies
and warmer breezes as southerly winds kick in on the other side of
the high pressure ridge axis that passes over Sunday night.
Southerly winds bring a warm advection pattern that lasts at least
through early Tuesday. The forecast beyond that becomes somewhat
sketchy with light pops in the grids as the models work out the next
series of short waves that ripple across the country in mostly zonal
flow. Tuesday overnight into Wednesday is one of the better chances
as a cold front traverses the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Stiff northeast wind
will continue to pump drier air into the area, which should
largely keep any precipitation south of the central Illinois TAF
sites. Gusts 20-25 knots are expected to form by mid morning and
persist through late afternoon, before beginning to subside.




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