Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS63 KILX 101753
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

16z/10am surface map shows 1012mb low over South Dakota, with
light to moderate snow developing southeastward across the western
half of Iowa into northern Missouri. Trajectory of low remains on
track from previous forecasts, with the majority of the snow
staying west and south of the KILX CWA this afternoon and evening.
Based on 12z model data and latest satellite/radar loops, have
made very few changes to the going forecast. Will maintain low
chance PoPs along/southwest of a Rushville to Taylorville line by
mid to late afternoon. Could see a dusting of snow around
Winchester in Scott County, but the higher snow totals will remain
focused further southwest toward the St. Louis metro area. No
major forecast updates planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A deep long-wave trough over the eastern half of the country with
strong upper level northwesterly flow from the northern plains into
the southeastern U.S. is in place this morning. Central and
southeast Illinois is entrenched with a cold air mass characterized
by temperatures falling into the single digits early this
morning...and wind chills as low as -6 degrees with 10 to 15 mph NW
winds continuing. Wind chills should continue to drop reaching -5 to
-10 most areas until mid-morning. A clipper system over North Dakota
early this morning will move rapidly into eastern Missouri and
southwestern Illinois this afternoon into evening. While most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will remain southwest of
the central Illinois forecast area...a slight chance for snow will
spread as far northeast as Springfield this afternoon and
evening...with little or no accumulation expected in the area. As a
surface high pressure ridge will edge over central IL to the east of
the clipper...WNW winds will steadily decrease to around 10 mph or
less today. Cold temperatures will continue today...with little
change from yesterday. Highs should reach from the upper teens along
the I-74 corridor to the low 20s through Jacksonville-Springfield-
Effingham-Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Forecast only a matter of small adjustments overall.  Deep trof over
the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate the
weather through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Northwesterly flow over the region will result in a series of short
waves moving through and bringing occasional snow chances off and on
through the end of the week...as well as very cold air. Timing of
the waves is going to be the main forecast issue for the next few
runs.

Lighter winds at the surface, but the temperatures will remain well
below freezing into the weekend.  Thursday night/Friday has a fast
moving wave in the models possibly bringing a quick bit of
snow...with little accumulation expected.  But behind this wave,
more cold air.  Whereas Friday highs may reach into the upper 20s,
this cold air will knock Saturdays highs back down into the teens.
Winds pick up a southerly component for Sunday as the upper trof
finally starts to shift eastward as another storm system takes shape
moving into the Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the
extent of the snow, with questionable moisture content, as the cold
air mass does not have much time to modify before the wave arrives.
For now, keeping the snow chance pops in there, but not willing to
go too high with qpf just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
High clouds have spread across all of central Illinois late this
morning in advance of a fast-moving storm system tracking
southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This feature will
remain largely west and south of the area: however, lower
ceilings and perhaps a period of very light snow is expected at
KSPI later today. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest
satellite/radar loops...have decreased ceilings to 3500ft and
introduced VCSH at KSPI between 23z and 06z. Once the system
passes by to the south, mid-level cloud deck will gradually
dissipate late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will remain
light, generally from the W/NW at 10kt or less.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes


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