Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 190211
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
911 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Clouds have been slow to clear out, but still show a steady
progress. Main concern is that any clouds that linger for a
significant amount of time after midnight could prevent those
areas from seeing any frost conditions. Our frost advisory
includes all of our counties. The latest HRRR high res model is
catching on to the slower clearing of clouds, and shows areas east
of I-57 and south of Champaign and Vermilion counties seeing
clouds persist as late as 11z/6am. For now will not cancel the
frost advisory for those areas, but will bring low temps up a
degree or two to account for less time under clear skies.

Main updates this evening were to the sky grids, and low temps in
the east. The remainder of the forecast looked on track. A
seasonable day is on tap for Sunday, under mostly sunny skies with
highs around 60, and southwest winds around 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Short-wave trough currently over central Illinois will drop
southward into the Ohio River Valley by early this evening, allowing
skies to clear from northwest to southeast across the area.  1730z
visible satellite imagery is already showing clearing in the wake of
the wave across central/northern Wisconsin into northern Iowa.
Based on satellite timing tools and the latest run of the HRRR,
think skies will clear across the far NW KILX CWA around Galesburg
and Peoria late this afternoon, then across the remainder of the
area by early to mid-evening. With clear skies and light winds
expected, a cold and frosty night will be on tap.  Low temperatures
will bottom out in the middle 30s across the board, allowing the
formation of frost.  As a result, Frost Advisory is now in effect
for the entire CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Only main concern this forecast package, beyond tonight, is the
chance of pcpn Sunday night through Monday. All models are
consistent with bringing a cold front down through the area
beginning late Sunday night and continuing through Monday morning.
This front will not have much moisture to work with, given the large
area of high pressure that will block any moisture from the gulf
from getting into the midwest. However, will still have a low
chance, around 30pct, pops in the forecast, beginning late Sun night
and continuing through Monday morning. Models seem a little faster
than yesterday, so believe pcpn could be out of the area by Monday
afternoon. However, will keep a slight chance pops in the grids in
the southeast...though it will not be seen in the wording.

Remainder of the forecast through the week and into the weekend will
be dry and pleasant. High pressure will build into the region on the
surface with 500mb ridging building in from the west. This will
effectively keep the storm track to the north through the remainder
of the forecast period, and possibly longer.

Temps will warm some tomorrow and Monday, but then cool back down to
below normal through remainder of the forecast. Temps will gradually
warm next week, reaching back to around normal by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Clouds continue to hover near the MVFR/VFR cross-over height of 3k
FT, with complete coverage across all our terminal sites. The
northern edge of the clouds is steadily approaching our northern
forecast area, albeit a little slower than previous forecasts.
Timing tools show clouds clearing about 2-3 hours later than
earlier forecasts. Therefore, have delayed clearing at PIA until
01z, BMI/SPI at 02z, and DEC/CMI at 04z. After that, high pressure
will build into the region overnight, providing clear skies and
light/variable winds. As the high begins to shift off to the east,
a light SW return flow will develop by Sunday morning. Clear
skies and southwest winds at 10kt or less will prevail through the
day on Sunday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon





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