Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 272014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Mid afternoon surface map shows 996 mb low pressure over east
central Nebraska with a warm front extending through northern MO and
arching down along the MO/IL border into southern IL/KY south of I-
64. A 546 dm 500 mb low was over eastern Nebraska so system is
nearly vertically stacked and starting to weaken. Low clouds
continue to blanket central/southeast IL while these clouds are
breaking up over warm sector of MO from Kirksville and St Louis sw.
One band of showers was lifting northeast of Danville while another
band of showers was from I-72 north and ne of a Canton to
Springfield line and lifting northeast. Thunderstorms have been very
isolated so far today due to weak instability with widespread low
clouds/lack of heating. Highest MUCapes in our CWA is currently 500-
900 J/kg over Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties at mid afternoon.
Temperatures currently range from lower 50s north of Peoria to mid
to upper 60s in southeast IL in southern 6 counties.

Models continue to weaken low pressure northeast into central IA by
Thu morning while bringing warm front into central IL overnight.
Will see more develop of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening and then diminishing overnight. SPC continues
slight risk of severe storms (15% risk of large hail and damaging
winds)late this afternoon and into mid evening sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line where MUCapes should peak at 1-2k J/kg
and the 2k J/kg are near Scott county where there is 5% risk of
tornadoes. Lows overnight to range from lower 50s northern CWA, mid
50s central section and upper 50s in southeast IL.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The upper level low currently centered over SE NB this afternoon
will lift ENE into the upper Midwest for Thursday, weakening as a
mean ridge builds into the eastern half of the U.S. A dry slot will
be working its way into the southern half of Illinois early in the
morning with a cold frontal boundary pushing east to near the Ohio
River and an occluded front draped back to the northwest across
central IL. Models indicating primarily dry conditions south of the
occluded boundary and west of the cold front through much of the
southern half of the central IL forecast area. To the north...could
see some lingering showers through the early evening as a series of
upper level impulses swing through.

Dry and cool weather is on track for Thursday night through Friday
as a short wave high pressure ridge crosses the area. Rain chances
will spread northward again Friday night as a low approaches from
the southern Plains. This low looks to pass by to the south which
will limit the instability over central IL, especially the northern
portions, but there should at least be a few thunderstorms possible
throughout the area Saturday afternoon to evening...and a longer
duration south of I-72. This system looks to push eastward with
precip ending by Monday. Dry weather will likely follow for the
first half of the week as cool dry high pressure moves down from the
north. Still some uncertainty with disturbances moving out of the
Southwest toward midweek, but latest models indicate those will
likely remain south of central IL.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A fairly large band of showers and a few thunderstorms over
central IL early this afternoon will gradually lift ne and become
more widely scattered from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon.
More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop behind this band during late afternoon and into the
evening as a warm front pushes ne into sw IL. Strong 995 mb
surface low pressure over eastern Nebraska will weaken to 1006 mb
as it moves into southern IA Thu morning. This will push a warm
front from northeast MO and far SW IL into central IL by Thu
morning as it occludes. IFR to MVFR ceilings to prevail through
next 24 hours with IFR to MVFR vsbys prevailing as well, though
will be up to VFR at times. Models show a dry slot working ne into
central IL Thu morning especially by SPI and DEC where ceilings
could lift up to VFR or even scatter out. Breezy east winds around
15 kts with gusts 18-24 kts this afternoon to diminish to around
10 kts by overnight and veer more west along I-74 while staying
ENE at PIA and BMI.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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