Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 210843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
343 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Surface low center over southern Minnesota this morning making
slow progress through the Upper Midwest and dragging a frontal
system with it. Cold front is finally making its way across
Central Illinois with cooler air moving in...even with more
southwesterly winds this morning. Winds will become more westerly
throughout the day with the high pressure building into the
Plains and the upper low slowly moving NE to the Great Lakes. Day
will start clear until some clouds wrapping around the low move
through the region this afternoon. Cooler air and afternoon clouds
should keep high temperatures mainly in the 60s... with some
lower 70s south of I-70. Tonight, mild weather continues with the
high center moves across the mid Miss River Valley with more
southwesterly winds for Central IL.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Dry forecast comes to an end later on Monday as the next wave
dives into the broader trof aloft over srn Canada, resulting in a
shift to a more amplified flow. Models are dominated by rain
showers into at least mid week. Whereas the chance for precip is a
good idea for Tuesday and Tuesday night...the qpf overall may be a
bit overdone as well as the persistence of the showers as the
models look to be having a feedback issue. More sunshine in place
will help Mondays temps to move about 5 to 8 degree jump above
Sundays north of I-70. Latest runs of the models handle the second
wave (Mon night/Tuesday) wildly differently than 24 hrs ago.
Currently far more progressive, particularly the GFS with a mostly
clear forecast for the end of the week with mild temps...and both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting to an MCS for Fri night. Considering
that the pattern is going through a shift in the long range of the
forecast, the blend is rather moderate and no plans to make big
changes to it anytime soon. Either way...confidence of forecast
beyond Wednesday is low.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Narrow line of showers and thunderstorms still in place for BMI
DEC and CMI this morning...and models persist on developing some
MVFR cigs in same place for a few hours before dawn in the west.
Otherwise... VFR cigs with some midlevel clouds and westerly


Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for ILZ051.



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