Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 210825
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
325 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

The precipitation and trailing cold front will have pushed well
south of the CWA by forecast time, so will not have any precip
mentioned in the forecast for today. Even though high pressure will
build into the plains, the area will remain under the influence of
cyclonic flow. This flow will combine with low level moisture from
the rain yesterday to produce partly to mostly sunny conditions,
with most of the clouds being in the northeast, closer to the upper
level system. As the upper level trough rotates through northeast
IL, some scatter showers could develop, but believe these will
remain northeast of the area. Colder air will advect into the region
today, so highs will only reach to around 70 over most of the CWA,
but low to mid 70s in the southeast.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

High pressure continues to build into the region behind the frontal
passage this morning through the week.  Forecast remains quiet and
dominated by large ridge over much of the eastern half of the CONUS
and a persistent sfc ridge over the Midwest.  Weak flow under the
sfc high becomes more southerly on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts
slightly eastward.  Slow warming trend starts as a result and
continues through the end of the week with warm temps just above
normals by Thursday. Although some  systems move across the country,
including a weak trof in the Plains for midweek, no precip is able
to move into the ridge and the forecast remains dry through Day 7.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Line of SCT TSRA from around KTAZ-KDNV to shift southward across
central/southeast IL overnight producing isolated MVFR cigs/vsby
until 12Z...however all activity is past central IL TAF sites and
no thunderstorm activity to re-develop overnight. Some light fog
possible, however steady SW-W winds continuing overnight likely to
prevent significant visibility reductions so have kept mention of
fog in VFR category. Cold front to approach KPIA from the
northwest by 09Z and sweep across central IL by 12-15Z. Expect a
wind shift from W/SW to NW as well as development of scattered
cloud cover around 3-5 kft AGL. NW winds 13-17 kts with gusts
20-25 kts developing late Sunday morning. Increasing cloud cover
likely producing areas MVFR ceilings from KPIA-KDEC-KPRG
northward after 16Z but only slight chances SHRA with little
visibility reduction.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON






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