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000
FXUS63 KILX 210834 CCA
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION LONG TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MCS THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SEVERAL
SEVERE WIND DAMAGE REPORTS TO CENTRAL/EASTERN IL DURING MONDAY
EVENING HAS WEAKENED EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF A CHAMPAIGN TO
SPRINGFIELD LINE AND TRACKING NE. 998 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NE SD
WITH ITS WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN WI/LOWER MI AND ITS COLD FRONT
OVER WESTERN IA...NW MO...SE KS AND CENTRAL OK. STRONG 555 DM 500
MB LOW WAS OVER NE SD AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH PAST 24 HOURS. ONE
MORE VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SE IL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH EAST OF I-55 DURING THE MORNING AND REFIRE UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPC HAS SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS A BIT FURTHER EAST
AND GENERALLY EAST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PER SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...SW FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE TODAY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NNE FROM
THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE
STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH STORMS
MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF DETROIT AND NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS AT
21Z/4 PM SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN
ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. FOR THIS
REASON...AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT (30%) WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS IN LOWER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES (5%) MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL HAS 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL AND 2% RISK OF A TORNADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

STRONG CUTOFF LOW TO MOVE EAST AND BE 557 DM 500 LOW OVER NW IA BY
DAWN WED WITH 1004 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST/WEAKENING INTO NE IA
AND NORTHERN IL. CONTINUE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THRU TONIGHT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE IL
RIVER VALLEY THRU THE EVENING. COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST THROUGH IL
WED MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SE LOWER MI BY SUNSET WED.
THIS TO KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND ON WED WITH LIKELY CHANCES OVER EASTERN IL. SPC HAS 5% RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WABASH RIVER WED WHILE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS IS FROM OHIO EAST. HIGHS WED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LAWRENCEVILLE NEAR 80F.

562 DM 500 MB LOW TO OVER INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THU MORNING AND
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH COOLER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS THU AND MILDEST
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO TERRE HAUTE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF PULLS
AWAY FROM IL THU NIGHT AND FRI AS 1031 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND IL. THIS TO BRING MORE
SUNSHINE BUT COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F
AFTER LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER CENTRAL IL AND
LOWER 50S SE IL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK AND MODELS
STILL SHOWING A DISTURBANCE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
QPF BUT DIFFER ON TIMING ON POSITION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRI NIGHT. THEN 20-40% CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL SAT
THRU MONDAY WHILE SE IL APPEARS TO STAY DRIER SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WILL TEND TO KEEP AREAS NE OF CENTRAL IL DRIER AS WELL.
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY MODIFY FROM SAT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S MEMORIAL DAY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 109 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS ITS MOVED INTO SE SECTIONS OF CWA...AND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ELEVATED...AND GENERALLY LIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE
TAPERING OFF ALONG AND EAST OF A BMI-DEC LINE.  SOME LIGHTER
ELEVATED SHOWERS WORKING INTO EASTERN MISSOURI SHOULD RETURN TO THE
AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION REFIRING AS LOW LEVEL S FLOW INTENSIFIES
AND TAPS RESIDUAL INSTABILITY BUT FOR NOW HAVE HELD THESE OUT OF THE
TAFS.  ONCE THE HEAVIER CONVECTION EXITS E TAFS BY 08Z...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CIGS AOA 8KFT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF
ST FORMING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND HAVE HINTED AT THAT WITH SCT
3KFT.  NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO FORECASTS FOR LATER TODAY...WITH SCT
CU FORMING BY MID MORNING.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING/LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE
INTRODUCING NEXT ROUND OF STORMS.

TRUETT

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$