Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 221753
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
Cold front approaching the Midwest but an overnight disturbance to
the northwest brought some showers and thunderstorms down into the
region. IR sat imagery showing warming cloud tops and slowly
weakening thunderstorms on radar as well. Upped some of the pops
over the far west for some rainfall and sct thunder. Diurnal swing
doing well in the forecast... updated a bit for the west with
current conditions. Updates out momentarily.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
VFR early this afternoon, with cold front moving in later this
evening and showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of the sfc
boundary. Issues with the models...some of the shorter term higher
resolution models are actually downplaying the thunder potential.
With the amount of instability available to the boundary, and the
expected convergence along it...keeping the thunder in the TAFs
from near 00z into the evening. Winds shifting first to the east
and then to the north by morning. Timing issues abound with this
particular forecast so narrowing the time frame for the thunder is
problematic. Confidence is low and forecast is conservative as a
result.


HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
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