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000
FXUS63 KILX 190730
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
230 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Sharp shortwave now moving across the state has pushed a weak
convergence line into the central cwa this morning. Despite
synoptic scale subsidence and significant drying aloft weak
convergence along the remnant boundary may be sufficient for
isolated convection late this afternoon. Otherwise, most of the
region will have a dry Saturday. Heights build fairly rapidly
behind tonight`s wave and will likely keep highs today near
yesterday though maybe with a tad less humidity.

Light winds and mostly clear skies may lead to some patchy fog
late tonight. Otherwise near normal temps and dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Warm advection becomes more prenounced early next week as the flow
returns to a blocking ridge in the west and a deepening trough in
the east. With southerly flow developing, dew points will rebound
well into the 60s with even some lower 70s possible Monday. Heat
index values should be well into the 90s both Sunday and Monday.

The increasing humidity will combine with the leading wave in the
developing eastern U.S. trough to bring a good chance of storms
back into Illinois on Monday and Tuesday. likely PoPs can expected
late Monday Night in the northwest portion of the forecast area
and over most of the area Tuesday.

With deep moisture in place and the approaching wave, clouds will
be on the increase on Monday. Monday afternoon will likely be
mostly cloudy from Champaign to Springfield and northwest. At this
time, better eclipse viewing conditions are expected across
southeast Illinois.

The wave moves past late Tuesday ushering drier and cooler northwest
flow. Highs the rest of the week should be in the 70s to around 80
degrees. Dry weather will dominate the forecast area Wednesday
through Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Relatively strong shortwave pushing through Illinois attm. Models
suggest that convective complex over Iowa should dissipate before
reaching Mississippi, but remnant cloud may make bring occasional
cigs to western terminals. 00z models suggest that some shallow
convection will be possible along a stalled e-w boundary over I-72
sites. Will introduce a cigs tempo group to those terminals from
22z-02z. Otherwise VFR and light winds can be expected.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Barker