Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 171752
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

FAIR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER MIDWEST AT 2 PM WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
CALM WINDS HAVE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S
AT 2 AM WITH A RECORD MINIMUM ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT MOLINE LATER
THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND MODIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITY.
LIMITED FORCING IS NOTED FOR THE NEXT 3+ DAYS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH NEAR NORMAL READINGS
FOR MID JULY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

TODAY...PERSISTENCE A USEFUL TOOL AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MODIFY AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN
YESTERDAY...GENERALLY 74-80 DEGREES...STILL 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN COVERAGE OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED MID DAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER GENERALLY FAIR AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS
ABOUT 3 DEGREES MILDER THAN TONIGHT AS AIRMASS MODIFIES. THIS
SUGGESTS LOWS OF 55 TO 60 DEGREES...ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IF THE CURRENT
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

THE VFR TAF CYCLE CONTINUES THROUGH FRI MORNING. DIURNAL SCTRD TO
BKN CU TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH JUST CIRRUS PASSING
ACRS AREAS SOUTH OF I80 OFF SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE...AND ONGOING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING SOME SMOKE OUT OF CANADA. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY SFC WIND FLOW TO GO LIGHT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT OR EVEN CALM PERIODS AGAIN. LOW CHC FOR MVFR FOG IN THE
VCNTY OF BRL...CID AND POSSIBLY DBQ BUT WILL NOT PUT IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5-8 KTS BY LATE FRI
MORNING.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12





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