Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 062005 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS LOTS OF SCT-BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LIMITING HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE FALLS
ARE MOVING SOUTH INTO AREA WITH AREA OF STORMS NORTH OF LACROSSE
TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 07/00Z.
UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS PROGRESSIVE FORCING WITH SCT-BKN AREA OF
STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
SEVERE POSSIBLE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG NW
FLOW FOR A EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS
PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OF NW FLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH POPS 40-60 PERCENT SUGGESTED. LOCAL
TOOLS SUGGEST GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF
60 TO POSSIBLY 70 MPH IN COOL POOLS UNTIL MID EVENING. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET UP TO SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS...OR 1.25 INCHES IN DIAMETER. SHEAR PROFILE IS MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR RISK OF TORNADOES UNLESS SFC WINDS BACK. RAIN TOTALS
WITH SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF 30+ MPH SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW A HALF
INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN INCH. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
OR HAVE NO IMPACTS TO AREA RIVERS...OR CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. MINS
WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY...FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH SOME
UPPER 80S SOUTH SECTIONS. A TYPICAL MID SUMMER DAY OF WARM AND A
BIT HUMID. LOW POPS WILL DEVELOP AND ARRIVE IN WESTERN SECTIONS
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND NEXT SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND MOVE GENERALLY EAST ALONG THE
IA/MO BORDER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
AN OSKALOOSA IOWA...TO PONTIAC ILLINOIS LINE.

THE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY EVENING WILL
EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FREEPORT ILLINOIS TO KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MORNING BUT A RESPECTABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE GREAT LAKES HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE
EAST COAST.

STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL AGAIN TURN ACTIVE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
POSITION...THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT TWO ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COMPLEXES DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI...AND THEN CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LOWER END VFR AND PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM A SCT-BKN COVERAGE OF STRATO-CUMULUS TO GIVE WAY TO FAIR SKIES
AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES LATER THIS EVENING. SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES. AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONG WINDS WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE ENOUGH FOR TEMPO GROUPS ARE
USED. AFTER 07/05Z...SKIES TO CLEAR OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITHIN
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE COOL FRONT WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MOST AREA TRIBUTARIES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
HAVE CRESTED AND ARE CURRENTLY FALLING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SATURDAY IN THE ENGLISH RIVER BASIN HAS PUSHED THAT RIVER BACK INTO
MINOR FLOOD. THE LOWER SKUNK RIVER IS STILL RISING TO A CREST.

THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE HEAVY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A BREAK IN RAIN IS
NOW EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNSET THURSDAY.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

MODERATE FLOODING IS CONTINUING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTH OF
CAMANCHE. FROM CAMANCHE ON SOUTH TO KEOKUK...MAJOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING. AS OF THIS MORNING THE CREST WAS NEAR BURLINGTON IOWA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS
HYDROLOGY...08








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