Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 140507

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1207 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016


Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

Latest SFC analysis was indicating center of large midwest high
pressure was progressing eastward acrs northwestern IL, with light
and variable local winds and current temps in the low to mid 50s.
Aloft, very broad low amplitude ridging/near westerly flow occupied
much of the middle CONUS, with one embedded waves noted on water
vapor imagery acrs the OK/TX panhandle region.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

Tonight...The above mentioned ridge will continue to migrate
eastward, allowing lift east to southeast return flow wrapping
around it`s western flank as the overnight progresses. Although
temps will drop rapidly around and after sunset this evening, will
bank on this flow keeping lows in the mid to upper 30s in the
southwestern and southern CWA. Some areas in the south may hang up
around 40. Thus in general, will only go patchy frost along and
north of the I80 corridor. In areas last to get the return flow of
far northwestern IL, temps may dip into the mid 30s or even push the
lower 30s and experience more widespread frost again. Thus will join
neighboring offices to the north and east and go with another frost
advisory for one more night for Jo Daviess/Stephenson/Carroll

Friday...Tightening pressure gradient on western flank of departing
sfc ridge and ahead of organizing western plains troffiness, to
drive southeast to southerly return flow winds of at least 10-15 MPH
by late morning. Combined with sunshine and improving/moderating
thermal profiles, high temps should make the mid 60s north of I80,
and the mid to upper 60s to the south. Would not be surprised if a
few areas hit 70. One fly in the ointment of a fine mid October day
would be an increasing south-southwesterly LLJ to at least 35 KTs,
conveyoring clouds from the southern plains up acrs at least the
western CWA as the day progresses. This would temper the high
potential in the west and southwest a few degrees from other areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through next Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

Mild October weather with a chance of showers and storms this
weekend with next frontal system.

Long Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...Fair or average with main
issue confidence of precipitation this weekend.  Large variation in
moisture, instability and forcing suggests coverage and type of
showers verses storms questionable with possibility of more showers
and less storms.  Secondary issues are strength of southerly winds
may be overdone this weekend.

Friday night...increasing clouds, mostly after midnight as south
winds bring in moisture from the gulf ahead of the next system. Lows
should be mostly in the evening hours with slowly rising
temperatures making for mid 50s, except lower 50s in the northeast.

Saturday...lots of clouds and mild with highs upper 70s south to
lower 70s north with breezy south winds of 15 to 25 MPH.  Low chance
of morning drizzle far northwest suggested and then afternoon
showers and maybe isolated non-severe storm due to low instability.

Saturday night through Sunday night...stalled front will result in
at least episodes of showers and storms with best forcing suggested
Saturday night.  Currently, conditions are marginal at best for any
strong much less severe weather for later shifts to monitor.  Most
locations should pick up less than a quarter to locally one half
inch of rain during this time period.  Winds Saturday night in
central and southeast sections may be too high for later shifts to
consider lowering. Highs mostly in the 70s.

Monday through Tuesday...Well above normal temperatures with highs
in the 70s to some lower 80s possible with southwest winds.  Mins
mostly in the lower to middle 60s.  This is about 15 degrees above

Wednesday and Thursday...Frontal system to pass which is suggested
to be dry or mostly dry.  This is questionable for later shifts to
reassess next few days as jet structure does suggest some
precipitation risks.  Temperatures should fall back to closer near
seasonable temperatures with 60s for highs and lows in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

Clear skies and light SE winds forecast into early this morning.
By mid to late morning S-SE sfc winds will increase to 10-15 kts
with occasional higher gusts.

Low-level moisture advection in the 925-850mb layer from the
Oklahoma/Arkansas region may push stratus clouds northward into
Iowa/Illinois by mid to late morning or the afternoon - greatest
impact at KCID, possibly KBRL. In TAFS, dropped ceilings down to
MVFR at KCID and KBRL after 18z/Friday. Toward the end of this TAF
period into Saturday morning, there is potential for IFR ceilings
at all terminals. Uttech


IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for Carroll-Jo Daviess-



LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Uttech is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.