Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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698
FXUS63 KDVN 281749
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LINGERING STRATIFORM RAINS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ENDING IN THE NORTH
AND EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY TODAY...AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT NOW IS
POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 30 AND INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH IOWA INTO
ILLINOIS. THIS FRONT WILL SEPARATE A MILD DAY FROM ANOTHER COLD DAY
NORTH OF IT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

TODAYS FORECAST WILL SEE A STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH FAR LESS WIND AND RAIN. SO IN A SENSE...THE
WORST IS BEHIND US...DESPITE SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BEING A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE FOG MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
SOUTH EARLY TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SUN POTENTIAL THERE AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SHOULD BE REACHED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TODAY. FARTHER NORTH...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE...ALL DAY...THAT SAME STRATUS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SOUTH AS WELL..BUT WITHOUT STRONG CAA...MILDER AIR SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY. WHILE THIS
WONT AFFECT A LARGE AREA...IT COULD IMPACT IOWA CITY THROUGH QUAD
CITIES AND ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WITH SLOW MOVING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS...LOCALLY CAPABLE OF A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. FARTHER
SOUTH...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...UNDER A BLANKET OF STRATUS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD NOT RISK ANY FROST GIVEN THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON THE RETURN OF A RAINY AND CHILLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY FRIDAY THEN THE RAIN BEGINS TO RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO KS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MO. NICE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF YESTERDAY WHICH WAS TRYING TO BRING
DRY AIR INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BUT APPARENTLY NOT. PWAT`S RISE TO
OVER 1.30 INCHES WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH.
TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARDS
EXTREME NORTHEAST MO WITH THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS SET-UP SEEMS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE EVENT
LAST EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THIS IS
BASED ON THE ECMWF BUT THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING DOWN BY
ST. LOUIS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW OR NONE AT ALL FOR THE CWA.. AS OF NOW SPC
KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
COMPARED TO CONSENSUS MODELS WITH THE RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY
DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WITH A PERSISTENT BRISK WIND
COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH...AND THIS MAY STILL NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.

FOR SUNDAY WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BASED ON THE ECMWF
BUT THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT MUCH QUICKER. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
MIDWEST SO WITH LESS CLOUDINESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SLOW MOVING WEAK SFC WAVE AND FRONT FROM JUST EAST OF THE DSM
AREA...TO SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES AND INTO CENTRAL IL...WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST
SFC FLOW AND LINGERING IFR CIGS WITH SOME FOG TO THE NORTH OF
IT...AND HIGH IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO THE SOUTH OF IT INTO THIS
EVENING. SCTRD SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
MAINLY AFFECTING MLI AND CID...AND PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE NORTH
OF THE FRONT TOWARD DBQ THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 4-8 KTS TO TAKE OVER BEHIND THE
PASSING FRONT OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS WANT TO LOWER CIGS BACK TO
IFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH 3-5SM VSBY FOG
DEVELOPING AS WELL. SOME CHC FOR BRL TO REMAIN AT LEAST AT LOW
MVFR OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD TREND TOWARD BKN MVFR OR EVEN
SCTRD BY LATE FRI MORNING...BUT CEILING FCSTS WILL BE CHALLENGING
UNTIL THEN.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12



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