Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 092036
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

DELIGHTFUL JULY WEATHER IN PROGRESS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE LANDSCAPE.
3 PM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO 80...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE COMFORTABLE 50S. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

ELSEWHERE...IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF SMOKE (ORIGINATING FROM LARGE FOREST
FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA) SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN
IA AND NORTHWEST MO. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS KEEPING
THE SMOKE TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON DELIGHTFUL JULY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CWA BRINGING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 55 TO 60 ACROSS THE CWA.

THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST
BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY. DEWPOINTS AGAIN SHOULD BE IN
THE 50S WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING. SOUTH WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IS SOMEWHAT WARMER
THAN TODAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OUT ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN DRIES OUT AND COOLS DOWN CONSIDERABLY NEXT WEEK FOR
MID JULY STANDARDS.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION DOWN AND SHIFTED FOCUS A LITTLE MORE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.  WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWFA MAY SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVE IN BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...BUT WITH IT
TRENDING SLOWER...MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.  MODELS
THEN SLOWLY BRING THE CONVECTION WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY FRI...LIKELY IN A DIMINISHING/WANING STAGE. SPLIT POPS INTO
6HR GRIDS FOR FRI...WITH AM HOURS HAVING BETTER CHANCES...AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR AFTERNOON HOURS AS PCPN MOVES EASTWARD AND
DIMINISHES. BELIEVE CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN
CHECK ON FRI...SO LOWERED MAXES A TOUCH.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SE THROUGH NW IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SW PARTS OF CWFA BY SAT AM. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PCPN CHANCES THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA. SOUTHERN HALF REMAINS THE AREA OF BETTER
CHANCES AND PCPN AMOUNTS.  SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL...WITH DECENT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I 80.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH POSSIBLE MCS
PROPAGATING ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. WILL LEAVE FOR FUTURE SHIFTS
AND ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
INITIATION ATTM.  THAT SAID...POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SVR STORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...AS SECOND COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY
MONDAY.  HIGHS SAT AND SUN MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH HEAT INDICES
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

SEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER
THAN SCT030-050 THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OR CALM TONIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS SHIFTING
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...HAASE















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