Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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989
FXUS63 KDVN 161742
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1142 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

1050 mb high was centered near Valentine, Neb with an occluded low
in lower MI. The coldest air was associated with the high in the
Plains with warmer air actually wrapping west and southwest around
the Great Lakes low back across Wisconsin. In other words early
morning temperatures were around 5 below in our southern and
western counties, while readings were in the teens in southern
Wisconsin and in the single digits above zero in northern Illinois.

Doppler radar continues to show pockets of flurries (small
crystals looking out the window) rotating southward associated
with the upper level trough from the Great Lakes to IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Headline: Wind chill advisory has been trimmed in portions of
eastern IA and will continue until noon. However, as this warmer
air continues to spread southwest into the dvn cwa the headline
may be able to be cancelled sooner.

Today: Upper level trough over the area this morning will keep
mention of scattered flurries across the cwa. Later in the
afternoon the trough shifts eastward ending the flurries. Skies
will remain mostly cloudy with highs ranging from the teens in nw
IL to the single digits in our sw cwa, which is the opposite of
what is normally seen.

Tonight: High pressure ridge will settle into the cwa with light
winds and clearing skies. I have lowered temperatures a few
degrees from the superblend due to the fresh snow cover. Expect
lows to drop to zero to 5 below, with wind chills of 10 to 15
below zero but this is not reaching advisory criteria. Headlines
are not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Quiet with warming trend to above normal temperatures late this week
and weekend with storm system impacts by Sunday into Monday.

Long Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...fair or average.  Little
sensible weather impacts until weekend with possible high
temperatures too low late this week with low confidence on
precipitation type due to where storm tracks late in the weekend.

Wednesday through Saturday...mostly fair with highs in the 20s
Wednesday and 30s Thursday and well into the 40s suggested for
Friday and Saturday.  Mins in the teens Wednesday night, rising into
the 30s by Friday night.  Light west to southwest winds.

Sunday and Monday...a significant storm system to bring seasonably
high precipitation to area. Track poorly defined but regime does
suggests some significant snow potential near or in our area.  This
should by variance in past 48 hours be much better known next 24
hours. Large scale regime does suggest some snow risks which will
put in the HWO product with emphasis for later updates as to where
and how much. Highs mostly 30s and 40s with lows 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Light snow showers continue to affect the TAF sites through the
next 4 to 6 hours. Most vsby restrictions in these bands are
expected to be greater than 2sm. After this period, expect VFR
conditions through the extended period with no sig impacts
expected.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Gibbs



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