Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 312356
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
656 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN ONTARIO RIDGING INTO NORTHEAST IA AND
INTO NORTHWEST MO WAS BRINGING SUNNY SKIES TO MOST OF THE DVN CWA.
HOWEVER...IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
ALL DAY AND THAT AREA IS INFLUENCED MORE BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST HAS LOCKED IN THE LOW
CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

A COOL AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS WITH 3 PM TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH A NORTHEAST WIND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
25 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. A JACKET COMES IN HANDY IN SHADY AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...WARM AIR ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN IA BUT WAS
THINNING SOME AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LAMPS INDICATES THE LOW STRATUS TO REMAIN ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AT LEAST
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT THE SAME OR
A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. I WILL FORECAST LOWS TO DROP TO THE
LOWER 40S IN NW IL TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR TO JUNE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE THE LOW CLOUDS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD ERODE...BUT WITH SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. HOWEVER...WITH THE SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE FROM QUEBEC TO
THE MID MS VALLEY WE WILL STILL HAVE A NORTHEAST WIND. THIS WILL
STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE LOBE OFF GRT LKS SFC HIGH
SIMILAR PROGGED BY MOST SOLUTIONS TO EXTEND ACRS THE CWA MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD...WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGING NUDGES ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. WHILE MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES COMBINING WITH SOME RETURN FLOW BECOMING MORE
WESTERN GULF MOISTURE LADEN WITH TIME IGNITES STORM COMPLEXES ACRS
THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTER GRT LKS...THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU AT LEAST 00Z THU. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE LLVL RIDGE WILL COMBINE FOR A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT MON NIGHT...BUT HOW COOL IS THE CHALLENGE. FOR
NOW WILL ADVERTISE LOW TO MID 40S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF CLOSER
TO RIDGE AXIS AND BEST CHC FOR MORE CLEAR SKIES...TO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH A MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED OCCURS FOR MON NIGHT...A FEW CLIMATE SITES
SUCH AS CID AND MLI MAY NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 2.

SOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW COMPONENT AND EARLY JUNE INSOLATION
TO HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TUE. IF SFC
FLOW DECOUPLES UNDER THE LINGERING RIDGE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING
MORE THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST...FCST LOWS MAY NOT BE
COOL ENOUGH BUT DO EXPECT SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF DEBRIS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MO RVR VALLEY CONVECTION TO SPILL ACRS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED HELPING PREVENT A TEMP BOTTOM
OUT. WED TO REMAIN DRY WITH MAYBE A CONTINUING STREAM OF CONVECTIVE
HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST FILTERING THE SUNSHINE
SOME ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RVR. ONGOING THERMAL MODERATION TO
HELP TEMPS GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S OR CLOSE TO 80
ON WED EVEN WITH DEBRIS CIRRUS. FEEL THE 12Z GFS WITH A DRY WED
NIGHT AND BOTH SFC/UPPER RIDGING ACTING AS A DEFLECTOR SHIELD MORE
ON TARGET...AS OPPOSED TO THE NEW 12Z ECMWF WHICH ALLOWS SOME
DECAYING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD TO BE MORE
UNSETTLED AS UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AXIS GET DAMPENED AND SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD...WITH RIDGE-RIDING VORT MAX/S OR WAVES HELPING INDUCE
MORE SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS SOMEWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE
MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE OH RVR
VALLEY REGION. SIGNALS OF A COOLER BACKDOOR STYLE SFC HIGH SLIDING
DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS ALSO HELPING
FOCUS A SQUEEZE PLAY TO DEFINE A STORM TRACK SOMEWHERE ALONG THESE
LINES. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITHE THE INCOMING RIDGE AND HAS
LESS ORGANIZED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA MAINLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI EVENING. THE EURO IS SUGGESTING
A MORE ROBUST MCS TYPE FEATURE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA THU
NIGHT IN FRI MORNING...WITH SOME RE-FIRING POSSIBLE ON IT/S OUTFLOW
REMNANTS LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO A STRONGER WAVE
ROLLING AROUND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AXIS. WILL HAVE TO
HAVE BLANKET CHC POPS THIS PERIOD FOR THE VARYING SCENARIOS...BUT
FEEL THE GFS HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES FOR A MORE MUDDLED
BUT WEAKER OCCASIONAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
MAY BE MORE THE WAY TO GO. IF PRECIP IS MORE SPORADIC ALONG WITH
IT/S ASSOCIATED DEBRIS...THU AND FRI COULD WARM AT LEAST INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACRS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST INCOMING
GRT LKS SFC HIGH AND TEMPORARY BOUT OF UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING ACRS
THE REGION MAY MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
A MORE VIGOROUS CYCLONE ROLLING EAST ACRS CENTRAL CANADA AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED STRONGER FORCING COLD FRONT MAY MAKE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS LATE NEXT SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...TIMING THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE THE WINDOW TO
WATCH FOR IF IT WILL INDEED HAVE THE ADEQUATE THERMODYNAMICS TO ACT
UPON.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL
AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MVFR CIGS OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS THREAT HAS BROUGHT
MANY HOURS OF MVFR CIGS TO BRL...AND COULD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CEDAR RAPIDS AND
DUBUQUE...WHILE MLI COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS OVERNIGHT.
IN ANY CASE...BY MID MORNING MONDAY...ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO
CONSISTENTLY VFR. ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN


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