Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 242351
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AT 2 PM CDT...FORECAST AREA UNDER A VEIL OF CIRRUS WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 12 TO 25+ MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CIRRUS IS DISSIPATING SLOWLY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
SUGGESTING AREA HIGHS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TEND TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONVECTION
STARTING TO FIRE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS TIME. UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOWS FORCING IS MARGINAL FOR LINE TO
ARRIVE IN EASTERN IOWA AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE DISSIPATING STAGES.
UPSTREAM JET SHOWS ACTIVE PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH JET TO OUR SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF MOSTLY RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
OR FAIR TO POOR. ONCE AGAIN...AMERICAN SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO MOIST
IN BL BUT ALSO NOT DRY ENOUGH ALOFT WITH UPPER LOW SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THIS COMBINATION MAY SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A DISSIPATING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD
ARRIVE IN THE WEST SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS
THE REGION BY MORNING. HAVE POPS IN 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS PROBABLY ACROSS THE NW 1/3 OF THE REGION. THE WEAK FORCING AT THE
SURFACE SUGGEST MOSTLY DECAYING MID LEVEL SHOWERS WITH VERY LOW TO NO
CHANCE OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 10 MPH SUPPORT MINS AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR A MILD NIGHT.

MONDAY...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK FRONT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY SW WINDS OF 15 TO
25+ MPH. MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED IN
SE 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL JET FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S THIS WOULD SUGGEST MUCAPES AOA 1500
J/KG WITH NEAR 2000 J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST
IF THIS OCCURS...STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH
LOW WBZ OF 7-8K AGL FOR HAIL POSSIBLY NEAR SIZE OF GOLF-BALLS AND EVEN
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO MAY BE NEAR 60 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS MID TO LATE
PM HOURS. THIS IS THE MAIN ISSUE TO BE PASSED ON TO LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH COOLER AND WETTER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. THERE WILL PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

DECAYING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
FIRST FRONT EXITS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT MAY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL INITIALLY KEEP BREEZY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS FORCING
INCREASES AND MOISTURE FLOWS NORTH INTO THE AREA...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN...THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 MAY NOT SEE 50 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERALL COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE
DIFFERENCES CAN BE TRACED TO HOW QUICKLY THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND HOW STRONG THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE
THAT BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRY
FOR THE AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS START BRINGING IN THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM FOR THE AREA. THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PICTURE WOULD SUPPORT A
STRONGER HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY...AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THERE APPEARS TO BE LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT THE
STORM CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AS
SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN EACH
PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY TO BE PREVALENT NEXT 24 HOURS. ANTICIPATE
AN AREA OF STORMS DECAYING INTO SHOWERS AND REACHING PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT LINGERING THROUGH DAYBREAK. KCID MAY BE
MOST FAVORED BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE THUS HAVE OPTED TO
SIDE WITH VCSH WORDING AT ALL SITES AFT 07-08Z THROUGH MID AM MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WINDS WILL
BE S/SE AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN BECOME GUSTY 15-30 KTS ON MONDAY
WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SSW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MCCLURE



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