Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 232314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
614 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017


Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Surface and upper level ridging resulting in fair skies and
continued south winds with very warm air. Temperatures at
2 PM CDT are in the lower 90s with both Moline and Cedar Rapids
already breaking high temperatures for today. An approaching cool
front will bring slightly cooler temperatures the next two days
before a sharp cool down occurs Tuesday. Any rain amounts will be
little or none.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...good or above average with
little sensible weather issues. Forecast highs and lows should be
within 3 degrees of forecast.

Tonight...little change from last night with clear to mostly clear skies
and lows within a couple of degrees from last night. This is mostly
in the middle 60s with south wind around 5 mph.

Sunday...low level temperatures a few degrees cooler should result in
highs 2 to 3 degrees lower with slightly lower dewpoints. This should
result in highs in the 87 to 92 degree range with afternoon heat index
values at or below 90 degrees with south winds of 5 to 15 mph. Record
highs should be close but not expected to occur.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A change in the flow aloft will bring temperatures well below normal
the second half of the week and into the weekend.

Dry conditions will be seen across the area Sunday night with
temperatures above normal. Attention then turns to the next front.

The GFS/ECMWF show the better forcing is behind the next front and
this forcing gets weaker as the front moves across Iowa. The CMC
global hints at the same idea. Additionally, there will be a fairly
deep layer of dry air that will need to be overcome before
precipitation reaches the surface.

Taking this into account, Monday morning looks to be dry. The model
consensus has slight chance to low chance pops in the extreme west
Monday afternoon. There is a very real possibility that Monday
afternoon will be dry everywhere. Temperatures on Monday will be
well above normal.

The model consensus has slight chance to chance pops mainly west of
the Mississippi Monday night. However, the front just barely gets
into the western third of the area by sunrise Tuesday. Additionally,
the better forcing remains behind the front and gets weaker. Thus
the possibility exists that Monday night will be dry for much of the

On Tuesday, the model consensus has slight chance to chance pops
that overspreads all but the eastern third of the area. The overall
forcing is even weaker than Monday night so while there may be rain
on Tuesday, it may end up being isolated in nature. Temperatures on
Tuesday will still be above normal.

Tuesday night...

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning the model consensus has slight
chance pops for any lingering showers behind the front. Temperatures
should be cooler than normal.

Wednesday night through Sunday the model consensus has dry
conditions for the area with temperatures well below normal. The
models do show a strong upper level system moving through the area
Friday night through Saturday night. Although the models do not show
this, the possibility does exist for diurnally driven rain showers
developing Friday afternoon/evening and again Saturday


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to influence the
weather over the region tonight through Sunday. This will result
in VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and light south to
southeast surface winds.


ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Record Highs for September 24...

Moline.........91 in 2007
Cedar Rapids...92 in 1984
Dubuque........90 in 1935
Burlington.....91 in 2007




SHORT TERM...Nichols
CLIMATE...Nichols is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.