000
FXUS63 KDVN 101115
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
615 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING WARM PACIFIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND AT 3 AM READINGS IN THE CWA WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND THE MELTING PROCESS CONTINUES. SOME OF THE RIVERS IN
THE CWA WERE SHOWING A RISING TREND IN RESPONSE TO THIS SNOW MELT
BUT WERE STILL WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON A WARM SPRING DAY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
ALREADY TONIGHT. STILL MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAK-UP
ICE JAMS ON SOME AREA RIVERS.

TODAY...A REMARKABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED AT +10 TO 12C ACROSS
THE CWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN TURN WINDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN
THE CIRRUS WITH PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL THIN OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TO SHOW YOU HOW
WARM THIS AIRMASS IS LOOK AT HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY IN NEB
AND KS WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE 70S! WHILE THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY WE WILL
STILL BENEFIT FROM THIS AIRMASS AND CONTINUED RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW. I WILL CONTINUE THE SPRING THEME FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS IN
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH HALF TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
SOUTH HALF. SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE WARM START TO THE DAY
ALREADY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. OPERATIONAL
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT LATE TONIGHT BUT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN WI.
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY LOOK FOR THE DVN CWA BUT LATER
SHIFTS CAN RE-EVALUATE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 40 FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

MARCH MADNESS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS WE TRANSITION FROM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH EXITING
SOUTHERN CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS CWA... WHICH COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
20+ DEGS DIFFERENCE FROM NORTH (30S) TO SOUTH (50S)... AND
REPRESENTS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL CHALLENGES. EXPECT A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION POST-FRONTAL EVENTUALLY TO SAG INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA BY LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN REGION OF MODERATE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES JET.
COLD ADVECTION ON STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POSSIBLY TO ALL SNOW BY MID-LATE
TUE PM. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND GROUND WET
ANY SNOW ACCUMS PRIOR TO SUNSET LIKELY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
EXCEPT ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES WHERE MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COUPLING OF UPPER JETS BETWEEN GREAT LAKES JET
SEGMENT AND EMERGING JET SEGMENT FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AID IN
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING EASTWARD FROM KANSAS/MISSOURI
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS CWA BETWEEN MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND DEVELOPING DEFORMATION
ZONE WHICH LOOKS TO SWIPE SOUTHEAST 1/3 TO POSSIBLY 1/2 OF CWA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST CWA (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO FORT MADISON IOWA LINE) WHERE
SOME SUGGESTION OF POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
STRATIFYING INTO THIS AREA RESULTING IN MODERATE AMOUNTS OF 0.25+ INCH.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF HEADING NORTHEAST
TO AROUND 0.1 INCH OR LESS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS CONFINED TO MAINLY IN THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION
ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING
IN SAGGING FGEN BAND... WITH OTHER CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS ON
ORDER OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 4 INCHES BEING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA ATTENDANT
TO DEFORMATION ZONE. CENTRAL CWA BEING MOSTLY IN BETWEEN THE BRUNT
OF BOTH FORCING MECHANISMS PROBABLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS. SNOW
AMOUNTS THOUGH QUITE CHALLENGING AS TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL... AND ADDING IN WET GROUND PLUS
VERY WET NATURE OF SNOW (SLRS 10:11-1) AND COMPACTION ALL TO FACTOR INTO
AMOUNTS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT 10-20 MPH BUT WET NATURE
OF SNOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY BLOWING OR DRIFTING IN AREAS THAT SEE OVER AN
INCH OF SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN
TO SNOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS WHILE ALSO ADDING
IN SOME VARIANCES STILL SEEING IN MODELS FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH REGARDS TO
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM... ALL OF WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY.
ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SHOWN BY SOME MODELS LINGERING
OVER CWA AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ACTING AS LIFTING MECHANISM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING HIGHS BELOW NORMAL AND MAINLY IN
THE 30S. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THEN REDEVELOPS LATE WEEK WITH NORTHERN STREAM
DOMINANT WITH TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL THRUST AREA INTO THE
WARM SECTOR AND RESULT IN COUPLE OF NICE DAYS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POTENTIAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT MOST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOW SHUTTLE THIS TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING US
MAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE... BUT MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVES A LOT
TO BE DESIRED THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND REASON FOR MAINTAINING VERY SMALL
PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH BY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE