152
FXUS63 KDVN 131753
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are possible for locations along
  and south of Highway 34 this afternoon and early evening

- More widespread chances (40-60%) of showers and storms remain
  for mid-week

- A slight warm-up is expected for Monday through Wednesday,
  before turning more seasonal for the latter half of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Surface high pressure will slowly translate across the Corn Belt
today, keeping most of our CWA dry. The only exception will be a low
chance (20-30%) of an isolated shower or storm, mainly along and
south of Highway 34 this afternoon into the early evening as a mid-
level shortwave lifts northeastward from the central Plains region.
While this activity should remain more isolated, anyone caught under
this activity could see a brief heavy downpour and lightning. The
13.00z HREF QPF PMM values are suggesting rainfall totals of 0.25 to
0.75", but this should remain isolated. Instability and shear
appears to be pretty weak, so strong storms are not expected. Most
other locations will remain dry, with perhaps some wildfire smoke
mixing down to the surface around the Highway 20 corridor. Seasonal
high temperatures are expected once again today, warming to the
lower 80s.

Any lingering showers/storms early this evening should come to an
end as the aforementioned shortwave passes to the east, leading to
dry conditions tonight. Lows should dip to the lower to middle
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The work week forecast continues to have periodic chances of showers
and storms, particularly for mid-week (chances as high as 40-60% for
Wednesday PM). Overall, ensemble guidance suggests zonal flow will
be the norm, depicted well in the 13.00z LREF 500 mb height cluster
analysis. Monday looks dry overall for us, but a few mid-level
impulses embedded within the zonal flow will support more active
conditions starting Tuesday. One key feature will be a surface cold
front that is progged to sweep through the Upper Midwest Tuesday
into Wednesday. There remains higher uncertainty on how far south
the front progresses, given differences among the global models.
However, there are some signals for stronger convection possible on
Wednesday along the boundary per the various ML guidance, although
these outputs are fairly muted. The active period could very well
continue into the end of the week as strong upper-level ridging
develops over the southeastern CONUS region, which could act to
stall the frontal boundary over the Corn Belt region.

Temperatures will warm up slightly for Monday through Wednesday
before the aforementioned cold front approaches, with highs in the
middle to upper 80s each day, gradually cooling off after that.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Eastern Iowa TAF sites are forecast to remain on the northern
edge of a storm system that will track to the east across the
area. This is resulting in high cirrus across the area with
diurnally driven cumulus from 4 to 6 kft. Winds are light
across the area with some smoke forecast to cause MVFR
visibilities at KDBQ this afternoon. TAFs are VFR through the
period but aviation fog is possible with the storm system to our
southeast and placed a tempo for MVFR visibilities at KBRL and
KMLI 9 to 12 UTC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

What is new with this issuance? The flood warning for the
English River at Kalona was canceled with the river falling
below flood stage. The flood watch for the Wapsipinicon River at
Anamosa was canceled as the river is forecast to remain below
flood stage. The flood watches for the Mississippi River at
Gladstone and Burlington have been upgraded to warnings. The
flood warnings for the Skunk River at Sigourney and the Iowa at
Marengo remain in effect. There is lower confidence that the
Skunk river at Sigourney will make it to flood stage with the
river level remaining steady since yesterday morning. The flood
watch remains in effect for the Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt.

Rainfall is forecast across the area through Monday night. In
bank rises will continue on area rivers before falling in the
later part of the week.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Cousins
HYDROLOGY...Cousins