Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 120615
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1215 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Canadian high pressure is resulting in cold temperatures enhanced
by our 3 to 12 inch snow cover. Area temperatures at 2 PM CST are
in the mid to upper teens to lower 20s south. Upstream energy shows
fair skies and warming trend starting Tuesday into Wednesday and
dry allowing for a slow melt of our snow cover the next several
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average.
Little sensible weather issue. Main issue in lows tonight with
fresh and deep snow cover some favored area may be 3 plus degrees
to warm for evening shift to monitor.

Tonight...Clear and cold with light west to northwest winds of 5
to 10 mph and lows near zero south to negative single digits north.
Wind chills may fall to as low as -10 to -15 degrees.

Monday...sunny and cold with highs mostly 20 to 25 degrees with
westerly winds of 5 to 10 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

The overall weather pattern will be more quiet this week with a warm
up. However, questions remain regarding the magnitude of said warm
up.

Monday night through Wednesday quiet and dry conditions will be seen
across the area.

The models show a warm-up starting Tuesday and going into Thursday.
However, there are questions regarding how much of a warm up will
occur. First, the overall flow remains weak. Second, atmospheric
profiles show a majority of the warming occurring aloft. Third, the
average snow depth is minimally six inches north of an Ottumwa, IA
to Galesburg, IL line. South of that line the average depth is three
inches. This snow field will help suppress any warm up. Lastly, warm
air flowing over the snow field would have a tendency to induce
cloud development and possibly fog which would further limit any
warm up.

Wednesday night night on...

The quiet and dry conditions will continue Wednesday night.
Attention then turns to Thursday.

Thursday/Thursday night the model consensus has chance pops for the
area as another storm system moves through the Midwest. The GFS and
CMC global have joined the trend of the 12z/10 ECMWF run and pulled
the next system north. Temperatures in the lowest 3 kft of the
atmosphere will be critical in regards to precipitation type. If
temperatures are cooler than expected the precipitation may be in
the form of all snow or a rain/snow mix.

Friday/Friday night the model consensus has quiet and dry conditions
for the area as high pressure builds into the Midwest.

Saturday into Sunday the models diverge on their solutions. The GFS
and ECMWF are dry with systems passing well to the north or south of
the area. The CMC global has a storm system further north bringing
the risk of snow or a rain/snow mix to the area. Given these
differences, the slight chance pops generated from the model
consensus have been limited to along/east of the Mississippi and
north of I-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Surface high pressure over the region will provide clear and cold
weather with VFR conditions through this taf cycle.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Haase



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