Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 170449
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Narrow convective band of sleet that moved through southeast IA
and extreme northeast MO early this afternoon has diminished.

Otherwise, mid/high level clouds have quickly spread back into
much of the cwa (except our far eastern counties) ahead of a short
wave (strong vort max) seen on water vapor loops in the northern
Plains. 2 pm temperatures across the dvn cwa were in the mid 30s
to the mid 40s.

Elsewhere, temperatures were in the 60s and 70s from sw SD
southward into TX. There were even some lower 80s in sw TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Rain chances increase tonight into Friday morning.

Tonight: Forcing from the advancing short wave from the west will
allow for complete saturation of the column this evening and
overnight. This will be especially true from extreme eastern IA
into our IL counties, and pops have been increased to likely after
midnight. Late tonight, forecast soundings indicate drying (and
loss of ice) in the mid levels and the rain may change to drizzle
for a time. In most areas rainfall amounts should be less than a
tenth of an inch. With the extensive cloud cover and southerly
winds temperatures will be much warmer than the past couple of
nights. We will forecast lows in the mid 30s north to the lower
40s at most locations.

Friday: Light rain or drizzle will come to an end in our eastern
counties in the morning as the short wave energy shifts off to our
east. Subsidence in the wake of the system should allow for
clearing skies from west to east as the day progresses. Southwest
to west winds will bring mild air into the cwa with highs ranging
from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

The passage of a surface high and an advancing western ridge will
bring a return of much warmer temperatures for the weekend,
especially Sunday. Sunday night into early Monday, a cold front
pushing through will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms,
then a return of near normal March temperatures for the early to
middle part of next week. Precipitation chances return Thursday,
ahead of an organized surface and upper low lifting out of the
southwest toward the region Friday.

Sunday is shaping up to be the warmest day in the forecast, as the
area will be in a pre-frontal warm air advection regime. Current
forecast highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s may be too
conservative. Elevated steep lapse rates ahead of the advancing cold
front Sunday night may result in at least isolated thunderstorms. On
the other side, Monday`s highs, based on a model blend, are
influenced by the slower ECMWF frontal passage and may be too warm.
If the faster GFS solution occurs, highs may only reach mid 40s to
lower 50s. There are also pops carried through the day to account
for a slower fropa and possible showers hanging on longer.

Temperatures return closer to mid March normals Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure pushes through the region. Highs are
forecast in the 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s. Warm
air and moisture return ahead of a developing upper trough and low
to the southwest will bring warmer temperatures and precipitation
chances Wednesday night, Thursday, and likely into Friday. While
snow is mentioned over the north Wednesday night, this is low confidence
and based on warm advection precipitation beginning in sufficiently
cold thermal profiles, which is questionable in this setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Light rain/drizzle will develop overnight and continue past
daybreak, most prevalent at KDBQ/KMLI. Expect low MVFR to IFR
ceilings and mainly MVFR visibilities. A westerly wind will bring
afternoon clearing, but MVFR ceilings are likely to linger at
KDBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Sheets
AVIATION...RP Kinney



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