Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDVN 250956
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

AS ONE TROUGH IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA CURRENTLY...A
FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE
THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW CLOUDS ARE
RAPIDLY CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT NEARLY JUST AS
QUICKLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN BEHIND. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS PUSHING WARMING AIR INTO THE REGION AT 850 MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS TIMING THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY AROUND MID DAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
THEN A THIN OVERCAST OF HIGH CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH A FORECAST CHANGE OF
+10 C FROM 00Z YESTERDAY EVENING TO THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH A
BIT OF SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 40
DEGREES. WAA AND HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW...THUS TEMPS WON`T DROP MUCH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WOLF

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A JET STREAK...DISGUISED AS A DRY SLOT IN WV
IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER S CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THROUGHOUT DECEMBER...IT WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO
REAL COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW WITH MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS THE DVN FORECAST AREA AND SNOW TO THE NW/N. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAK SFC LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH IS ALSO WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE. ECMWF IS ON THE WETTER SIDE WITH AROUND 0.20-0.25 INCHES OF
RAIN...THE GEM/GFS/NAM ARE NEAR A TENTH OR SO...KEPT FORECAST QPF
LOWER THAN THE ECMWF.

SREF SNOW PTYPE PROBABILITIES ONLY INCREASE TO 35% BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY NW OF CEDAR RAPIDS...RIGHT WHEN THE PRECIP IS ENDING. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA BUT THINKING ONLY UP
TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH GIVEN CURRENT MODEL THERMAL PROFILE
PROJECTIONS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NW FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. 850
TEMPS WILL FALL FROM -4 C TO AROUND -12 C THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DUE
TO LACK OF SNOW COVER...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL BE NEAR AVG IN THE
LOWER 30S/UPPER 20S DURING THE DAY AND LOWER 20S/MID 10S AT NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT BUT
NOTHING ORGANIZED IS EXPECTED AS WEAK VORTICITY MAX EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ENTERS INTO A MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND GETS
SHEARED OUT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS WILL BE LOWEST...NEAR
516 DAM...ON TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DROP 850 TEMPS TO BETWEEN -12 C TO -14 C ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME MODERATION BY WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW AT THE SFC WILL BACK TO SW
FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG 1050 MB+ SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AND THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF RAW OUTPUT IS COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS SO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AS THE RAW OUTPUT
TENDS TO CATCH ON TO COLDER TEMPS BEYOND DAYS 4/5 BETTER THAN THE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND OVERNIGHT. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...A DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WHILE BACKING
FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.