Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 181739
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Cold front that produced significant severe hail/wind in our
southern and eastern counties has moved southeast of the cwa. IR
GOES-16 Satellite Ch 9 shows extensive mid/high level clouds over
the cwa. A potent short wave was moving through WI producing
showers and isolated thunderstorms there, moving east. In the
meantime, strong thunderstorms continued ahead of the cold front
in central MO into southern IL. These storms were moving southeast.

At 3 am temperatures in the cwa ranged from the mid 60s to the
lower 70s. Readings in the 50s were common in the Dakotas,
northern Nebraska, nw IA and western and northern MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Forecast focus on cooler and less humid airmass with only a slight
chance of showers in our northern cwa.

Today: Potent short wave in WI will deepen the upper level trough
in the Upper Midwest, allowing for a northwest flow to become
established in the short term. This will bring a cooler and less
humid airmass into the cwa. The mid/high level clouds will thin
this morning allowing for sunshine, but then scattered to broken
cumulus should develop later this morning and afternoon.
Therefore, a partly sunny sky should prevail. Most of the cwa will
remain dry but can`t rule out a few isolated showers north of
Highway 30 late this afternoon. These would be instability showers
on the leading edge of a pocket of colder air aloft arriving from
the north. The bulk of the showers should remain north of the cwa
under the core of the cold air. There is low confidence in an
isolated weak/brief thunderstorm forming in our far north. With
low pressure in the Great Lakes region, west to northwest winds
will gust to around 25 mph later this morning into the afternoon.
Highs will be in the 75 to 80 ranged with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s.

Tonight: Any lingering isolated showers in our far north should
end by 7pm or so. Otherwise, a pleasant night is in store with
rather light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows should
bottom out in the mid to upper 50s at most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Cooler temperatures will continue Monday in northwest flow aloft.
Shortwave energy is forecast to drop southeast into the region
accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. Limited instability
will preclude any severe weather.

For Tuesday, a gradual warming trend will get underway with another
weak shortwave trough glancing the northeast CWA. Isolated showers
and perhaps a rumble of thunder are possible, but no higher than
slight chance pops are warranted at this time.

Wednesday through Friday will be the warmest and most active stretch
of the long term period, with highs CWA-wide back in the 80s and
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. There are significant
day-to-day differences in the various synoptic models, but general
agreement in a frontal boundary in or near the forecast area through
the period. Moisture/shear/instability ingredients are favorable for
severe storms at times, with specific timing and coverage still to
be determined. Slightly cooler temperatures are favored heading into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

There is a low chance for scattered showers or an isolated clap of
thunder to affect CID and DBQ through 00z; however, chance is much too
low to mention in TAFs and will wait for convective development
to update TAFs if needed. Otherwise, gusty NW surface winds and
scattered VFR cumulus this afternoon, giving way to clear skies
for the overnight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...DMD



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