Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 141755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1155 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017


Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Quiet weather with a weak cool frontal passing early this morning with
little or no clouds. Temperatures in the 30s at 2 AM CST with some passing
high clouds which will slide south today. Moderate northwest winds of
10 to 20+ MPH behind the front now into northern Iowa. Westerly pattern
aloft with jet displaced to the south keeping the region dry the next
several days with mostly above to well above normal temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...good or above average. No
sensible weather issue with max wind gusts mid day and how deep mixing
of low levels are today that may allow for slightly warmer highs in
some locations.

Today...mostly sunny and breezy over the northern 1/2 or more of the
area. Northwest winds mid day into late afternoon of 15 to 25 MPH expected
along and especially north of I-80 corridor. Along and south of highway
34 should see winds of 10 to 20 MPH and possible less near Missouri
border. Highs expected to be in the lower 40s near highway 20 corridor
to lower 50s south sections.

Tonight...fair skies and decreasing northwest winds overnight should
allow for decent decoupling of the boundary layer. Lows in the lower
20s north to the middle 20s south with a light to moderate frost possible
toward morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Long term still focuses on the well above temperatures and quiet weather
through the weekend. Towards the end of the period a series of waves
approaches the area and the chance for precip returns to the area.

Wednesday is by far the coolest day in the extended when highs are forecast
to be 3 to 7 degrees above normal. The real warm up starts Thursday
where temperatures will start to be +15 to +20 above average. Into the
weekend, we could see temps close to +30 above average. In fact highs
on 7/17 are forecast to be within 3 degrees of the record for the day.
How high these temps go will be the main forecast concern through the
next few shifts.

Towards the end, forecast confidence in the next storm system is low
as run to run consistency is poor. The region will likely see another
wave early next week which could affect our area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Mainly VFR conds through this taf cycle. Northwest winds around 15
knots sustained with gusts to around 25 knots this afternoon into
this evening, then 10 to 15 knots overnight into Wednesday morning.




SHORT TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Haase is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.