Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 181800
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
100 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

ANALYSIS AT 2 AM SHOWS WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS TO FILTER IN TODAY BEHIND VERY STRONG
LATE SPRING CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE MIDWEST BEHIND THE STRONG
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
ISSUES THE STRENGTH OF GUSTY WINDS DUE TO STRONG CAA AND GOOD OVERTURNING
OF BL DUE TO MID MAY HEATING. ALSO IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE GENERALLY STEADY TEMPERATURES NW WHILE
IN SE PORTIONS TO SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND FRONT BY MID DAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. POSSIBLE MANY AREAS HIGHS MAY BE 1-3 DEGREES
TOO MILD...MAINLY IN NW SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...BECOMING BREEZY BY LATE MORNING AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH PLAINS WITH NW TO WNW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER MOST OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH NW 1/3
OF THE REGION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NW PORTIONS TO SEE
CONSIDERABLE SCT-BKN COVERAGE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH POSSIBILITY OF NW 1/3 OR MORE OF AREA MAX TEMPS ARE
STILL UP TO 3 DEGREES TOO WARM.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS CANADIAN HIGH MOVES SLOWLY INTO AREA. TRENDS SUPPORT MINS NEAR OR
BELOW COLDEST GUIDANCE WITH NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO SEE UPPER 30S
WITH SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED FROST RISK SUGGESTED DUE TO WINDS
ABOVE 5 MPH. SOUTH SECTIONS MINS SHOULD BE AROUND 40 DEGREES. AREA MINS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE RECORD MINS FOR MAY 19TH LISTED
BELOW IN CLIMATE SECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY THEN WARMER WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA
PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 0C ALONG HIGHWAY 20. I WILL
FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL SEND A SIGNIFICANT WAVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE VERY COOL AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR INSENTROPIC LIFT OVER A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MO OZARKS. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA. AS A RESULT I HAVE RAISED POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
RAISE THEM FURTHER OVER ALL THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS AS OF NOW LOOK TO
BE AT LEAST ONE-HALF INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH. IN
THIS REGIME THE THUNDER THREAT IS PRACTICALLY ZERO. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM WE GET RIGHT BACK TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER WITH RATHER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S ON THURSDAY AND IN THE LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE 40S. THIS PERIOD WILL BE IDEAL FOR GETTING THE GRASS MOWED.

THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSITION AGAIN TO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN THE PLAINS. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS.
GUSTY WNW WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

RECORD COLD LOWS AND YEAR FOR 19 MAY 2015
DBQ...34...2002+
CID...33...1929
MLI...36...2002+
BRL...38...2002

+...ALSO IN PREVIOUS YEARS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH
CLIMATE...NICHOLS


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