Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDVN 260503
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A WEAK LOW IN NORTHWEST MO...WITH
QUASI-STATIONARY GENERALLY WEST-TO-EAST UNDULATING BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACRS FAR NORTHERN MO. A WEAK INVERTED TROF STICKING UP OFF OF IT AND
ACRS THE DVN CWA IS BECOMING MORE WASHED OUT/LESS DEFINED BY THE
HOUR. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS
INDICATING A VORT MAX ACRS THE SD/NB BORDER REGION EMBEDDED IN BROAD
BUT RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

TONIGHT...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE ROLLS EAST OVER THE MO RVR
VALLEY AND WESTERN IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...EXPECT SCTRD SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT WAS ALSO ALONG THE
LLVL FRONT ACRS FAR NORTHERN MO...AND IF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAKE IT INTO THE CWA IT WILL BE ALONG THAT AREA IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA. THE
MAJORITY OF THE HIRES AND NEAR TERM MODELS TAKE THE HEAVIER PRECIP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AS CONVERGENT LLVL NOCTURNAL FEED MAXIMIZES FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE KANSAS CITY AREA...TO NORTHEAST OF THE STL AREA. WILL HOLD OFF
OF A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN MO COUNTIES OF CLARK AND ESPECIALLY SCOTLAND ARE VERY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ALL THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN.
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE COUNTIES FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN CASE ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEB/NW MO TRACK OR DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND INTO WEST CENTRAL IL SHOULD STILL GET
CLIPPED WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST 0.25 TO NEAR A HALF INCH OF RAIN. WITH LLVL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING IN A BIT DRIER SFC DPTS INTO THE FAR
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND DPTS HOLDING UP IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE
FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...EXPECT A LOW TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE SAME AREAS
FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT AS WELL AFTER ANY TEMPORARY BREAKS THIS
EVENING CLOUD BACK UP WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT.

FRIDAY...MORE CLOUDS WITH SCTRD SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HIGHER COVERAGE
IN THE FAR SOUTH AGAIN WITH STORM CLUSTERS BLEEDING OUT OF THU NIGHT
AND MOVING ACRS THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. DIURNAL
EFFECTS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX STILL PUSHING ACRS THE
REGION TO CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR SCTRD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE PASSAGE...
WITH SLOWER PROPAGATING SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE PRECIP GOING INTO
EARLY FRI EVENING...WHILE OTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS END MOST
OF THE PRECIP BY MID AFTERNOON IN POST-WAVE SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP
POPS THRU 00Z SAT. CLOUDS AND LLVL/BL NORTHEAST FETCH TO KEEP A
LID ON TEMPS WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST OF THE
AREA.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION...
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REACH THE FOR NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM/GFS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
EC/GEM...SO HAVE KEEP POPS LIMITED IN COVERAGE FOR NOW THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE. FORTUNATELY...ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WITH NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO
LOW...WITH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY JUST TO THE WEST.
LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VFR WILL DOMINATE THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THEN...A FEW
UPPER DISTURBANCES OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO
THICKEN IN 1500-3500 AGL LAYER RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR.

SOME -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN
TAFS...EXPECT AT KBRL HAVE -TSRA BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/FRI. COULD HAVE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT KBRL EARLY FRI MORNING SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI AFTN/EVENING
BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
UTTECH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT...LOCALLY OVER 5 INCHES...WAS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY SOUTH...ACROSS THE SKUNK...DES MOINES...FOX...AND
LAMOINE RIVER BASINS...WITH A NUMBER OF POINTS IN THOSE BASINS
FORECAST INTO MODERATE FLOODING. FORECASTS FOR MANY TRIBUTARIES TO
THE NORTH AND THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND EVEN STRETCH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE IOWA AND
CEDAR RIVER BASINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH
HYDROLOGY...RP KINNEY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.