Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 201748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Minor afternoon update to bump temperatures up a skosh and to
increase cloud cover. The daily diurnal cu field looks more
extensive on satellite today than the past couple of days, and it
looks like the cu has a little more vertical development as well.
Other than than, the forecast looks to be in fine shape for the
rest of the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight across the area. Scattered to broken
cumulus can be expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT.
The cumulus should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over
the past few days. VFR flight conditions will continue through
tonight. There may be some river valley fog again, but confidence
is low due to deep mixing this afternoon which will tend to dry
out the lower atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered to broken cumulus can be
expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT. The cumulus
should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over the past few
days. VFR flight conditions will continue through tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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