Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 292052
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AIR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.  HOWEVER, SHOULD HAVE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS
MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER SO WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT, IT
SHOULD FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS BAD.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BI-STATE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SO UNLESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CAN RAISE THE DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT MIGHT GO THROUGH DRY.  HOWEVER,
NAM AND GFS ARE PRINTING OUT SOME PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AFTER THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND CONTINUED WARM FORECAST
AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STAY ON THE PERIPHERY, AND CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT WAVERING BETWEEN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  91  72  91 /   5   0   0  10
QUINCY          65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA        67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
SALEM           67  89  67  89 /  10   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      68  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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