Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 251131

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
631 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The sfc ridge will continue to build ewd today as the wrmfnt lifts
newd thru the region. Mdls continue to suggest a chance for isod
TSRA along the fnt across nrn portions of the CWA this afternoon as
moisture convergence increases.

Much of this evening is expected to be dry, tho a threat of an isod
shower remains. Mdls are in fairly good agreement with timing of the
approaching cdfnt late tonight into Wed. Latest guidance suggests
TSRA will be moving into the far nrn portions of the CWA late
tonight, just before 12z Wed. Have increased PoPs across nrn
counties for this soln.

Otherwise, with the wrmfnt lifting thru the region, have trended twd
the warmest guidance today and tonight. Winds from the ESE will
gradually veer today and tonight to eventually become sly, then
sswly to swly late tonight just ahead of the fnt. This shud help
keep temps up overnight.


.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Initial round of showers to diminish a bit through Noon on
Wednesday, before redevelopment occurs during the afternoon hours.
Despite some capping in the mid levels, MU Cape values between 500
and 1500 J/kg and decent convergence/lift along and ahead of front,
will be enough to trigger some thunderstorm activity. So kept slight
chance/chance mention of T in the grids through Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, with warm south to southwest winds, temperatures to warm
up a bit above normal into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Precipitation to taper off Wednesday evening. Not a lot of cold air
behind the front, so lows to remain a bit above normal, in the mid
40s to low 50s.

Active northwest flow aloft to persist with a brief warm up through
first half of weekend before next system slides southeast through
region Saturday afternoon through Sunday. However, models continue
to shift energy and moisture further to the northeast with it, so
will have a dry frontal passage.

Near normal temps on Sunday, then warm southerly winds to return on
Monday. So should see above normal temps for Trick or Treaters
Monday evening.



.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Sely winds will gradually veer to become sly tonight ahead of an
approaching cdfnt late tonight. Have added LLWS to focus on main
LLJ just ahead of the approaching fnt. There is a low chance of an
isod TSRA impacting KUIN late this afternoon into evening.
However, believe most precip will remain N of the terminal until
closer to sunrise Wed. Broken line of precip shud be approaching
KUIN around 12z, and KCOU later.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Dry and VFR forecast thru the
period. Sely winds will become ssely late tonight. Cigs with bases
around 5 kft shud develop during the morning and persist thru the
afternoon. After breaking up this evening, another bkn cig deck
shud return late tonight, but bases shud be closer to 9 kft.





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