Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 110529

1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Issued at 930 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016

As expected...snow bands primarilly forcied via mesoscale
processes have weakened dramatically with only some flurries
remaining. For the rest of tonight...a cloudy sky along with
light/variable winds are expected. Exception could be far southern
and western CWA which will be on the very edge of the cloud deck.
In these areas...had to drop low temperatures a few degrees as
temperatures have dropped fairly quickly under a partly cloudy to
mostly clear sky.



.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016

Bands of warm advection snow are moving thou eastern Missouri and
southern Illinois.  Amounts ranging from a little more than a
dusting up to around 1.5 inches have been reported with the bands.
RAP may have been the best model to handle this system today, but
even it wasn`t far enough east with the accumulating precip earlier
today.  Regardless...current thinking is that the western edge of
the accumulating snow will reach the Mississippi River by around 00Z
this evening.  The snow also looks to be deteriorating from the
northwest although there are still a few reports of light snow in
Iowa.  With the RAP, NAM, and GFS continuing to show some pretty
impressive warm advection and low level frontogenesis after 00Z, I
can`t rule out additional (very) light accumulations this evening
along and east of the Mississippi.  Anything more than 1/2 inch
looks very unlikely and probably confined to our southeastern
counties.  Any lingering precipitation should end by midnight.


.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016

Dry and continued cold weather on Thursday as a surface ridge drops
southeastward through eastern MO and IL with continued northwesterly
mid-upper level flow.  A northwest flow shortwave will bring some
light snow, mainly to northeast MO and west central IL Thursday
night and Friday morning.  It appears that accumulations will be
light at less than one inch due to the progressive nature of the
shortwave along with limited moisture.  Most areas should just get a
quick dusting of light, powdery snow.  Slightly warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday, but this will be short lived as another
cold front drops southeastward through our forecast area on Friday
with a strong 1040 mb surface ridge building into the area behind
it. Temperatures may actually begin to fall in northeast MO Friday
afternoon after frontal passage.  Northwesterly winds will
strengthen Friday afternoon and evening after the cold front passes
through due to a tightening surface pressure gradient.  It appears
that this will be a dry frontal passage, but much colder
temperatures can be expected Friday night and Saturday with very
cold wind chillls possible Friday night.  Warm air advection ahead
of a northern stream shortwave may bring some snow to northeast MO
and west central IL Saturday night.  The ECMWF model appears a
little too quick bringing precipitation into the area already by
Saturday afternoon with an initially very dry air boundary layer on
the backside of the strong surface ridge.  Model solutions continue
to vary from the Sunday through Monday period.  The GFS model
spreads snow through the area Sunday and Sunday evening ahead of a
northern stream shortwave.  The ECMWF model is weaker and quicker
with the northern stream shortwave and keeps most of the
precipitation north of our forecast area on Sunday, but then
develops a strong southern stream shortwave and associated surface
low which brings snow to the southern half of the forecast area
Sunday night and Monday morning. With theses model discrepancies,
for now will just include chance pops for the forecast area Sunday
and Sunday night.  Warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday as the upper level trough shifts east of the region with
upper level heights rising and surface winds becoming southerly. The
ECMWF model is not as warm for Wednesday compared to the GFS as it
brings another cold front southeastward through our area as an upper
level trough moves through the Great Lakes region.  The GFS solution
does not have either the upper level trough or the cold front.  For
now will keep with the warming trend for Monday through Wednesday.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016

VFR ceilings with light easterly winds expected through the day on
Thursday. Another clipper system will dive southeast Thursday
evening bringing another round of snow into KUIN so have IFR
visbys late Thursday evening. KCOU is expected to be too far SW
and the metro terminals closer to the southwestern edge of the
light snow.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected heading into Thursday evening. Lambert
will be near southwestern edge of light snow coming in from the
northwest with the next clipper system. For now...have a VCSH
group indicating the possibility of light snow at the terminal.
Regardless...appears a period of MVFR ceilings is likely by late
Thursday night.





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