National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 140803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT THAT IS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SETTING UP FOR A VERY WARM DAY
TODAY. STILL EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND WARM LAYER
BETWEEN 900-800MB CAPS WHAT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY.
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO 85-90 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS THAT WE ONLY MIX UP TO BETWEEN 925-900MB...THOUGH IF WE
WERE TO MIX UP TO 850MB...HIGHS WOULD BE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI BASED ON 20-22C TEMPERATURES AT
THIS LEVEL. FORECAST DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY SEEM TO BE TOO HIGH
BASED ON UPSTREAM READINGS...SO TRIMMED THEM BACK BY A FEW
DEGREES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS PROBABLE IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI WITH GUIDANCE INCREASING THE WIND UP TO 40KTS AT AROUND
1,000FT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULDN`T BE AS STRONG FURTHER EAST. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS UP TO ARUOND 20-25KTS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS PROBABLE IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI...HOWEVER WIND SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE LAMBERT TAF. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS UP TO ARUOND 20-25KTS.

CARNEY

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

...CORRECTED...

RECORD HIGHS

              5/14

ST LOUIS    91 (1932)

COLUMBIA    90 (1987) (1932)

QUINCY      94 (1915)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX