Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 182351
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

Expect a gradual warming and moistening trend over the next
several days, culminating in a return to typical summertime heat
and humidity next week. A strong high pressure center over the
western CONUS is forecast to build eastward over the weekend,
placing MO/IL along the eastern periphery of the ridge and under
northwest flow aloft. Models continue to depict a few weak and
ill-defined shortwaves which could potentially support isolated to
scattered SHRA/TSRA during this time, but the predictability of
these features is very low.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

It appears that the best opportunity for rainfall will be during
the middle of the week when a strong shortwave moves from the
Dakotas into IL/WI, possibly sending a cold front into the pre-
existing warm/moist air mass over MO/IL on Wed. However, the best
dynamics remain to the north of the LSX CWA and the models
continue to show significant differences in the large scale
pattern evolution along and east of the Mississippi River. The
18/12z ECMWF develops this shortwave into a closed low over IL/IN
while the 18/12z GFS is more progressive with an open trough.
Pending resolution of these model differences, today`s afternoon
forecast package generally followed the recommended CR
initialization for all grids between Mon night and Thu, except for
keeping slightly warmer temperatures based on pattern recognition.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

VFR flight conditions and light east-southeast flow will continue
across the area. Afternoon cumulus clouds will dissipate this
evening and are expected to redevelop late Saturday morning/early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light east-southeast flow will continue
at Lambert. Afternoon cumulus clouds will dissipate this evening and are
expected to redevelop late Saturday morning/early afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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