Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 270829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Weak frontal boundary to slowly slide southeast through region
today. Initial activity over northern portions of forecast area to
exit before zone issuance. Next round firing up over southwestern MO
and moving east northeast towards forecast area. HRRR keeps activity
along and south of I-70 this morning before diminishing. So highest
pops will be over southern portions of forecast area. Otherwise,
warm conditions to persist with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Weak ridging to build in tonight with precipitation tapering off.
Did keep slights/low chance pops for southern portions of forecast
area, but for the most part forecast area should be dry overnight.
On Thursday, more vigorous shortwave to approach from the
southwest. Will see increasing pops with best chances over central
and southern Missouri during the day, then chances to increase
beginning Thursday night as deepening upper level trof over the
Rockies begins to slide towards region. Best chances will be
Friday through Saturday, before tapering off on Sunday.

Highs will be in the 80s for the rest of the work week with lows in
the 60s. Cooler air to filter in behind this system with highs only
in the upper 60s on Sunday, then warm back up into the upper 70s to
low 80s by next Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

Isld/scttrd SHRAs will continue to dot the area thru the prd. Weak
forcing along a diffuse bndry will keep sporadic precip percolating.
Current activity across cntrl/NE MO and w cntrl IL should slowly
dsspt/move NE after 6Z. Guidance hints at another batch of convection
dvlpng across SW MO tonight. This precip, if it dvlps, will move
NE but appears to remain south of the STL metro terminals. Limited
coverage precludes mention attm. SHRA coverage may increase Wed aftn
with the highest coverage expected to be east of the STL metro. Winds
will become wrly Wed mrng.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd though there will be isld/scttrd SHRAs. A weak
bndry will push thru the terminal drng the late mrng allwoing winds
to become more wrly and taking the better chance of rain with it.
Limited coverage precludes mention in the fcst attm.

2%
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





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