Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 242030
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OKLAHOMA UP INTO
SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR
SHOULD MAKE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AFTER THE WINDS FALL OFF. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO NEAR
LAST NIGHT`S LOWS...OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINING TREND OF CANADIAN RIDGE SLOWLY WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME AS
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. NO REAL
CHANGES REQUIRED TO GOING FORECAST, WHICH EMPHASIZE DRY AND
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW AVERAGE LATE AUGUST TEMPS.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL AMS, HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH
PERSISTENCE IN TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 75
TO 80 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 50S, WITH THE COOLEST
OVERNIGHT MINS EXPECTED IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE EASTERN
OZARKS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO WEAK DISTURBANCE
MIGRATING THROUGH THE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...AND
PUSHING INTO OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE
IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

500 HEIGHTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TIME, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER LEVELS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00-01Z. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO MONITOR TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE,
BUT SHEAR VALUES DO NOT WARRANT INCLUDING MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00-01Z. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO MONITOR TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE,
BUT SHEAR VALUES DO NOT WARRANT INCLUDING MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

CARNEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     57  79  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
QUINCY          51  76  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA        52  79  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
JEFFERSON CITY  52  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
SALEM           52  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
FARMINGTON      51  78  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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