Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KLSX 052356

656 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2015

Skies will turn mostly cloudy again tonight as a large stream of mid-
high clouds ahead of shortwave seen in water vapor imagery currently
over the Central Plains will move across the area.  Expect little if
any rain from this system as ascent and low level moisture is
lacking.  Lows tonight will be closers to the warmer GFS MOS because
of the clouds.


.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2015

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Clouds will linger throughout the morning on Tuesday before the
shortwave finally moves off to the east.  Then a ridge will build
over the area on Wednesday keeping dry weather going.  Then expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to move into the area on
Thursday and Thursday night as both the GFS and the NAM show a upper
trough and an attendant cold front moving southeastward across the
Midwest.  Temperatures will warm up into the 70s and lower 80s as
850mb temperatures climb into the 10-15C range.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS and ECMWF are still in good agreement that the trough and cold
front will move east of the area early in the day on Friday which
will confine rain chances to the southeastern half of the CWA.  Then
both models show a surface high moving across the area on Saturday
before the low level flow turns southwesterly on Sunday ahead of the
next cold front.  Neither model is show any significant upper
troughs or depicting any QPF over the area during the Saturday
through Monday timeframe, so will go with a dry forecast for now.
Guidance temperatures support highs in the upper 60s behind the
front on Friday...but then gradual warming to around 80 by early
next week as 850mb temperatures climb into the upper teens Celsius.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2015

Weak upper level system will move across the region te next 24
hours bringing back the northwest flow aloft. Main question is
will the mvfr clouds return: all sites vfr at taf issuance. Have
gone VFR for now with the idea that extensive mid and high clouds
will prevent widespreas redevelopment. Some sprinkles possible
from the mid clouds from the upper level system. Will watch cloud
trends closely for COU and UIN.

Specifics for KSTL: RAP noses in some lower RH values from the
east. This along with the mid and high clouds should keep STL VFR.
Fingers are crossed.





WFO LSX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.