Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 271713

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1213 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Cold front extending from a surface low over northeastern IN
southwest through southern portions of MO and IL will continue
moving southeastward as the surface ridge extending from northern WI
southwest into south central KS moves southeastward through our
forecast area late this morning and this afternoon.  Lingering light
showers have dissipated or shifted southeast of the forecast area,
but a low level stratus cloud deck was across most of our region.
This stubborn shallow low level cloud deck will only slowly clear
from west to east today and will hinder diurnal warming.  Highs
today will be below normal across west central and southwest IL
where the clouds will not clear out until early this evening.  The
sky should be mostly clear tonight.  Above normal low temperatures
can be expected tonight across central MO as an upper level ridge
builds eastward into the area and surface/low level winds become
southerly/southwesterly on the backside of the surface/850 mb ridge
shifting east of the region.


.LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Gusty south to southwest winds to prevail on Friday, so temperatures
to warm up at least 10 degrees above normal most locations under
mostly sunny skies, into the low 70s to low 80s.

Warm flow to persist through at least Saturday before next frontal
boundary approaches region Saturday night/Sunday. Highs on Saturday
will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Then main energy/moisture with
system to stay over Great Lakes region, so front associated with it
will very slowly sink south across forecast area, stalling/washing
out across southern portions of forecast area by Sunday afternoon.
Despite frontal boundary, highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s
to upper 70s.

After weak surface ridge builds in Sunday night, it quickly shifts
off to the east allowing warm southerly winds to return once again.
So high temps on Monday will be at least 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, in the upper 70s to low 80s. Trick or treaters will have a
mild and dry Halloween Monday evening.

Extended models continue to bring in another frontal boundary late
Monday night/Tuesday, stalling it out along I-70 corridor. Initial
energy, moisture and storms to remain closer to surface low over
Great Lakes region. Then a series of shortwaves to lift out of the
southwestern US Tuesday night/Wednesday with showers and a few
thunderstorms developing along stalled boundary. Temperatures Monday
night through Wednesday to remain a bit above normal for this time
of year.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

MVFR stratus will continue to dissipate this afternoon leaving
only a few high clouds. Light northwest winds will become light
and variable and last overnight as the surface high pressure ridge
moves overhead. As ridge moves off to the east...light southeast
flow will gradually become established by around 12Z. Some river
fog may form overnight...but light southeast flow should keep it
away from KSUS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Stratus should dissipate by around 20Z. Light
northwest winds will become variable overnight as ridge passes
overhead. As the ridge continues eastward...winds will become
light southeasterly by around 10Z.



Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

With an upcoming stretch of unseasonable warmth expected over the
weekend, here is a list of record high temperatures thru the weekend.
Although there are no record high temperatures in the forecast just
yet, stay tuned to the forecast as that could change over the next
several days.

     STL    COU     UIN
Fri10/28 85/1927 85/1927 85/1927



Saint Louis     60  48  81  62 /   5   0   0   0
Quincy          58  48  77  61 /   5   0   0   0
Columbia        63  51  80  61 /   5   0   0   0
Jefferson City  64  51  81  62 /   5   0   0   0
Salem           59  45  74  59 /   5   0   0   0
Farmington      62  46  76  59 /   5   0   0   0




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