Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 301739
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT W/NW WINDS DRNG THE DAY POTENTIALLY BCMNG
LGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A W/NW WIND AOB
10KTS.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  70  91  72 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  88  67 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  69 /   0   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  64  92  69 /   0   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  91  66 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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