Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 220814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Well it finally feels like summer. Heat index values yesterday
afternoon topped out around 105 degrees in the immediate St. Louis
Metropolitan Area where the EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING remains in
effect until Sunday evening. Elsewhere, heat indices remained
within the 100 to 104 degree range, including locations across
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Will be adding the
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois counties to the HEAT
ADVISORY to account for heat index values reaching longevity
criteria of 100 degree heat index for four or more days. I expect
that the longevity of the heat wave (now likely extending into
next week) will lead to future extensions in time as confidence
increases.

Have introduced some low chance POPs for thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening across the northern half of the CWA. Hard to
ignore mesoscale model guidance suggesting a secondary warm front
developing across the northern CWA by this evening as low pressure
deepens across the Central Plains. Both 00Z 4KM NCEP and NSSL WRF
runs depict an active late afternoon and evening across the northern
CWA - with the potential for an outflow to move south toward I-70.
Again, for now, I have only increased POPs so that there is a
mention in the forecast. Day shift will have to reevaluate as HRRR
and RAP comes into range later this morning.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

Hot and dry conditions extend into next week ahead of a cold front
that is now forecast to arrive on Wednesday. This front should
bring a chance of rain and utlimately cooler temperatures by
Thursday.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours
outside of any convection. Some activity has developed over far
south-central Iowa over and will have to be watched as some of
these storms may approach KUIN. Left KUIN dry though for now as
mid/upper level winds suggest aforementioned storms should move
east and stay north of site. Otherwise...hot/humid weather to
continue with winds by day out of the southwest and at night
backing to a more southeasterly direction. Did add a VCTS group at
KUIN for Friday evening as a warm front will move northeast with
some convection firing near this boundary per latest model guidance.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 30 hours
outside of any convection. Hot/humid weather to
continue with winds by day out of the southwest and at night
backing to a more southeasterly direction. Could be some widely
scattered storms Friday afternoon as a boundary lifts to the north
and east...but left out of TAF for now as probability of
occurrence of a storm affecting the terminal is quite low.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     98  80  99  80 /  10  20   5   5
Quincy          94  75  95  75 /  20  30   5   5
Columbia        97  75  98  74 /  10  10   5   5
Jefferson City  98  76  99  74 /  10  10   5   5
Salem           93  75  95  75 /  10  20   5   5
Farmington      96  77  97  75 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau
     MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren
     MO.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
     IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-Washington IL.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR Madison IL-St.
     Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



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