Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
FXUS63 KLSX 050301
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
901 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
Issued at 856 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
There is mid-level echo on radar across the southern CWA however
surface dew point depressions are 10-15 degrees and drier air
continues to advect in from the north. A few flurries or perhaps a
brief snow shower cannot be entirely ruled out however the overall
trend is for a continued decrease in precipitation coverage and
intensity tonight. Updated grids and products (including winter
headlines) have been sent to reflect these changes.
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 217 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
All of the precipitation has changed to snow over our forecast area.
As of 20z, heaviest band of snow has setup along a line from
Reynolds County MO to Randolph County IL, in the warning area.
Upwards of two inches has fallen in this area so far with lesser
amounts to the north. With decent lift as next shortwave slides east
northeast through southern MO, will see another 2 to 3 inches, maybe
a bit more, before snow tapers off late this evening. Storm totals
in our far south still look to be between 3 to 6 inches. For now
will keep all headlines going. Otherwise, for areas north of I-44 in
MO and I-70 in IL, it will be dry with skies remaining mostly
cloudy overnight. As for low temps, single digits far north to the
mid teens far south.
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
(Thursday through Saturday)
Sfc ridge will continue to build into the region Thurs with NW flow
aloft. Based on upstream obs over ND/SD, have trended cloud forecast
twd the more cloudy NAM/Local WRF for Thurs. Expecting high level
clouds to pull sewd out of the region during the morning, with CU
developing during the late morning into afternoon. Based on progd
soundings across the region, any CU that develops has the potential
for flurries. While going forecast contains more cloud cover than
previously, have kept temps for Thurs as-is as breaks in clouds shud
help temps warm.
Otherwise, little change to prev forecast thru Sat as prev forecast
still appears on track.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Not much change to the prev forecast. Mdls are in rather good
agreement overall. NW flow aloft dominates the extd and lacks any
noteworthy trof. That said, a weak s/w and associated sfc cdfnt pass
to the NE of the region late Sat which shud be monitored for future
shifts in track.
Overall, no precip expected thru the period with temps that
gradually warm thru the period with above seasonal average temps by
Sun and into next week.
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
Ongoing storm system affecting the sthrn Plains NE into the OH vly
will remain south of the terminals overnight. Widespread mid/high
clouds will continue to stream NE this evng Skies should clear
either late tonight or early Thu mrng as the storm system moves
east. Some model guidance is suggesting an area of
stratus...possibly below 1kft...dropping out of IA towards 12Z.
Not confident in this solution...therefore have not included any
mention of low clouds attm. Otherwise...N/NW winds around 10kts
and clear skies.
Specifics for KSTL:
Mid/high clouds will continue to stream overhead thru the
night...finally pushing east towards 12Z. Models are hinting at a
small area of stratus dropping south along the MS rvr Thu mrng
but to not have enough confidence in that solution to include
mention attm. Otherwise expect N/NW wind around 10kts and clear
skies. Winds should go lght/vrb tomorrow evng as sfc ridge passes.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO.