Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 230454
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1154 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Scattered thunderstorms have recently developed over the St. Louis
metro area near a cold front that is moving slowly south across
the area. Atmosphere remains very unstable at this hour with
MLCAPES between 2000-4000 J/kg. Still expect thunderstorms to
continue to develop along the cold front during the late evening
and overnight hour as the front pushes south. Temperatures are
still very warm at this hour, with most temperatures still in the
80s and a few low 90s in metro St. Louis. Going lows still look
good overall, though they could be a few degrees cooler where they
are cooled by storms.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Oppressively hot and humid conditions were noted across the region
early this afternoon, and several ASOS sites had already passed the
century mark by 18-19z. At 20z, KSTL reported a temperature of 104
degrees with a dew point of 69 degrees, yielding a heat index of 111
degrees.

A boundary was located near the MO/IA border as per regional METARs
and satellite imagery. A shortwave moving along the US/Canada border
towards the Great Lakes will push this boundary southward as a cold
front into MO/IL. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop near this boundary within an unstable air mass. A few
storms could be strong to severe given steep H7-H5 lapse rates and a
very unstable air mass. A separate area to monitor for potential
SHRA/TSRA development late this afternoon and this evening will be
along a remnant outflow boundary which moved across the region
earlier this morning.

Although the cold front will move through the region tonight, there
won`t be much change in the air mass characteristics until tomorrow
night when a second cold front moves through the region (see
discussion below). Highs will be around 5-7 degrees cooler on Sunday
compared to today, which will translate to peak heat index values of
100-105 rather than 110+ across the southern half of the CWA.
Although the heat will be slightly less intense on Sunday, it still
appears dangerous enough to keep the existing heat headlines in
place.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Not a lot of changes from the prev forecast. A cooler cdfnt is progd
to push into the CWA Sun evening with sct TSRA possible near the
fnt.

Unfortunately, the cooler temps will be short lived as the thermal
ridge begins to build into the region with height rises by Tues.
Still, with a somewhat nly and ely sfc flow, have trended slightly
cooler. Regardless, the dewpoints shud still be much cooler allowing
temps to drop into the 60s at night.

The upper ridge continues to build into the area on Tues and Wed
with 850mb temps in the 21C to 24C range by Wed. This shud result in
temps in the upper 90s to near the century mark for the St. Louis
metro area. This heat event shud be short lived with a deep upper
trof and associated sfc cdfnt pushing thru the area Wed night and
Thurs. Depending on the progress of the fnt, temps on Thurs may not
be warm enuf across srn portions of the CWA. Behind this fnt, much
cooler and drier air returns on Fri into next weekend with a 1016 mb
sfc ridge, 850mb temps around 15C and NW flow aloft.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Complex of thunderstorms over west central Missouri will move east
and affect KCOU and the St. Louis area terminals between 06-10Z.
These storms will produce MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and
visibilities and gusty winds. Have included tempo groups to
include these conditions. A cold front will move south of the area
by 12Z. Expect dry and VFR conditions on Sunday.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Scattered thunderstorms continue near the terminal at this hour. A
complex of thunderstorms over west central Missouri is expected to
affect the terminal between 08-10Z. These storms will produce
MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities and gusty winds. A
cold front will move south of the area on Sunday bringing dry and
VFR conditions.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
     Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Bond IL-Calhoun
     IL-Clinton IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



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