Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 291709

1109 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2015

Majority of forecast area remains somewhat dry early this morning
with just some light rain/drizzle in the far north, far east and far
southern portions of forecast area as of 09z. Will see precipitation
on the increase today as next shortwave slides through region. Best
chances of rain will still be across the far northern and far
southern sections of cwa, so adjusted pops accordingly. However, QPF
amounts will be rather light, less than a tenth of an inch.
Otherwise, due to the clouds and light rain, highs will only be in
the upper 30s to upper 40s.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2015

Upper level low and shortwave over central Rockies to lift
northeastward towards forecast area tonight. This will help to
develop a surface low over west central Missouri on Monday,
strengthening and lifting northeast into Iowa by Monday night, so
will see another round of rain, with best chances along and north of
I70. The QPF expected with this round will be around a quarter of an
inch or less. Rain to taper off by daybreak on Tuesday. Lows tonight
and Monday night will be in the low 30s to low 40s with highs in the
low 40s to low 50s both Monday and Tuesday.

Beyond that, extended models are still indicating a dry period from
Tuesday through next Saturday as upper level ridging builds in. Near
normal temperatures expected through midweek, before warming up a
bit above normal for the last half of the work week and into next



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2015

Another round of light rain will move through UIN and COU early
this afternoon and the St Louis metro area by late afternoon ahead
of an approaching upper level disturbance. Do not see much of a
change in cig heights in COU and the St Louis metro area, likely
remaining around 1000 feet. UIN should lower with rain moving in,
down to MVFR late tonight and IFR Monday morning. Nely surface
wind will become ely Monday morning as a sruface ridge centered
over WI moves eastward and a surface low develops over northeast
KS and northwest MO.

Specifics for KSTL: Do not see much change in the cig heights,
maybe a slight rise to just above 1000 feet this afternoon with
cig heights likely dropping back to just below 1000 feet late
tonight. An area of light rain will move through STL late this
afternoon and early this evening, with another round Monday
afternoon as a surface trough moves through the area. N-nely
surface wind will gradually veer around to a due nely direction
this evening, then ely Monday morning and sely Monday afternoon.





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