Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 271140
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
640 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Weak frontal boundary to slowly slide southeast through region
today. Initial activity over northern portions of forecast area to
exit before zone issuance. Next round firing up over southwestern MO
and moving east northeast towards forecast area. HRRR keeps activity
along and south of I-70 this morning before diminishing. So highest
pops will be over southern portions of forecast area. Otherwise,
warm conditions to persist with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Weak ridging to build in tonight with precipitation tapering off.
Did keep slights/low chance pops for southern portions of forecast
area, but for the most part forecast area should be dry overnight.
On Thursday, more vigorous shortwave to approach from the
southwest. Will see increasing pops with best chances over central
and southern Missouri during the day, then chances to increase
beginning Thursday night as deepening upper level trof over the
Rockies begins to slide towards region. Best chances will be
Friday through Saturday, before tapering off on Sunday.

Highs will be in the 80s for the rest of the work week with lows in
the 60s. Cooler air to filter in behind this system with highs only
in the upper 60s on Sunday, then warm back up into the upper 70s to
low 80s by next Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Recent radar trends are showing showers moving up toward KCPS and
just south of KSUS/KSTL. Went ahead and added TEMPO groups for
MVFR conditions in -SHRA through 14Z at KCPS, and added VCSH at
KSUS/KSTL. Expect this area of showers and thunderstorms to move
out of the area by mid morning leaving the rest of the TAF period
dry with VFR conditions. Winds will turn light and variable at
most of the terminals tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: The terminal will lie on the northern periphery
of a large area of showers and thunderstorms through 14Z. Have
added just VCSH for now with just VFR conditions, but may need to
amend to add -SHRA if showers move farther northward than
expected. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions the rest of the
TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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