Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLSX 221111
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
611 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Have continued a persistence forecast again for today. Ample
insolation shud allow similar temps to yesterday. With swly winds
returning, temps may be a couple of degrees warmer.

Do not anticipate precip across the region today. Some guidance
suggests that ongoing convection over ern NEB may spread an outflow
boundary swd near the nrn portions of the CWA. Do not anticipate
anything more than some clouds if the boundary does make it that far
south.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Upper level ridge to remain over region through Friday night, so dry
and above normal conditions expected. With plenty of heat and
humidity, highs will be well above normal in the upper 80s to low
90s on Friday.

By Saturday, upper ridge begins to weaken and shift to the east as
digging upper level trof and associated surface cold front lift east
northeastward towards forecast area. Despite increasing clouds as
system moves closer, will still see temps well above normal in the
85 to 90 degree range.

Models have a better handle on this system in the interim and will
see storms on the increase from west to east late Saturday night
through Sunday as cold front moves through, stalling out just to our
east. So our best chances of rain will be Sunday and Sunday night.

Beyond that the models continue to have differences in strength,
timing and placement of this system. GFS keeps upper level trof to
our west with a series of shortwaves lifting northeastward through
region, while ECMWF has upper level trof and surface low track
eastward through Great Lakes region with attendant cold front
stalling out just to the south of forecast area. Despite the
differences, both keep chances of rain across the region through
Tuesday night before tapering off by mid week.

As for temperatures, with plenty of cloud cover, precipitation and
cooler air behind the cold front, will see high temps near seasonal
norms in the 70s across the forecast area.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

VFR and dry conditions expected thru the TAF period. Sly winds
return today and become light and vrb tonight. Believe better
mixing today and warmer temps tonight will help prevent fog
development tonight. However, as conditions today and tonight are
similar to yesterday, light fog may be possible for SUS/CPS
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     91  67  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          90  66  89  67 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        89  66  89  66 /   5   5   0   0
Jefferson City  91  66  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           90  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      89  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.