Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 280838

338 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Nocturnal convection has remained well northwest of forecast area
with just a few very small showers popping up over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois early this morning. For today,
will see a lot of sunshine initially but diurnal cu to pop by mid
to late morning most locations. So depending on how much cloud
cover forms and timing of when storms will develop will affect how
warm temperatures get. For now have highs in the mid 80s far north
to the upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. Will still see dewpts in
the low to mid 70s so another very humid day. Heat indices could
get close to 100 in the metro area this afternoon but not warrant
any headlines. Just like yesterday, expect widely scattered
thunderstorms to develop along weak boundary that remains draped
across region.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Tonight activity to slowly dissipate then refocus back to the
northwest along main frontal boundary. Lows tonight will be in the
low 70s. On Friday, upper level shortwave/trof to begin to lift
northeast out of central plains and into forecast area.
Precipitation chances to be on the increase with the best chances
Friday night and Saturday. Kept likely pops going through this
period. Highs on Friday will be a bit lower, in the upper 80s and
lows Friday night will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. As system
slides through on Saturday, the combination of clouds and storms
will keep highs in the low 80s far north to the upper 80s south.

Frontal boundary to stall out just southeast of forecast area
Saturday night through Sunday, could see a bit of a break in
activity with just isolated/scattered storms through this period.
Then an even stronger trof will slide east through region Sunday
night and Monday with increasing chances of storms once again. This
boundary to stall out just south of us as well, so kept mention of
storms possible through the rest of the forecast period. Highs will
be in the 80s through the middle of next week.


.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

Just mid-high level clouds for the remainder of the night with
most of the nocturnal convection remaining north of the taf sites,
although there may be a few storms impacting the UIN area towards
morning. There will likely be some fog late tonight/early Thursday
morning in COU and the St Louis metro area with light surface
winds and high surface dew points, particularly in areas which had
recent rainfall. Surface winds will pick up from a sely direction
on Thursday as the surface ridge centered over the Great Lakes
region shifts slowly eastward. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds
will develop again late Thursday morning and afternoon along with
at least isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms.

Specifics for KSTL: The light lingering rain should dissipate by
06z Thursday. Mainly just mid-high level clouds for the remainder
of the night with fog possible late tonight/early Thursday
morning. The surface wind will diminish and become light late
tonight, then pick up to around 8 kts Thursday afternoon from a
sely direction. There will likely be isolated to scattered
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the early evening.



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