Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 281153

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Convection across northeast MO and west central IL has dissipated
early this morning. Most of the convection was southeast of the
forecast area, associated with a slow moving, compact upper level
low/vorticity maximum.  Additional scattered convection will
develop late this morning and this afternoon as the atmosphere
destabilizes ahead of a weak northwest flow shortwave. It appears
that the best coverage of showers/storms will occur across
southeast MO and southwest IL. High temperatures today will be
similar to yesterdays highs, maybe a degree or two cooler.


.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Convection tonight may be mainly during the evening hours, with
slightly cooler low temperatures due to potentially less cloud
cover. The threat for convection will continue on Friday and
Friday night as shortwaves carve out an upper level trough over
the central US. Temperatures on Friday should be slightly cooler
due to the increased cloud cover and potentially better coverage
of precipitation. There may be less chance of convection on
Saturday and Saturday night as the upper level trough axis shifts
east of the region and a surface ridge noses into our area from
the Great Lakes region. Precipitation chances may increase again
for Sunday and Sunday night due to low-mid level warm air
advection and as a warm front shifts northeastward through our
area. Convection should become more suppressed for the first half
of the next work week as an upper level ridge tries to build
northeastward into our area. This along with southerly surface
winds will lead to warmer temperatures rising above normal values.



.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN: A zero dew point depression was noted at TAF
issuance and MVFR fog was noted at surrounding sites, therefore
light fog is possible through 15z. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA
are possible this afternoon and evening. Fog is possible again
tonight if less cloud cover occurs than currently forecast.

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU: Fog was starting to lift to very low stratus
at TAF issuance. Fog/stratus will continue to lift this morning
and VFR conditions are anticipated by 15z. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but SHRA/TSRA chances
look higher farther to the east. Fog is possible again after
29/06z, especially if any clearing occurs.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Patchy fog was noted across the
St. Louis metro area at TAF issuance. Fog should continue to lift
this morning and VFR conditions are expected by 15z. Isolated to
scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible this aftn/eve. Fog is possible
again tonight, especially where clearing occurs.





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