Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 252345
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015

Frontal boundary is across northern portions of forecast area as
of 20z and will continue to drift to the south across the region.
With CAPES in excess of 4000 J/kg, no cap, high lapse rates,
decent convergence along boundary and PWs in excess of 2 inches,
will begin to see storms fire up over the next couple of hours.
This initial batch will slide east through forecast area, then
models still showing MCS development over eastern KS/western MO
and slide along boundary into central MO after 06z Friday, then
across rest of forecast area through Friday afternoon. All of
these storms are expected to be heavy rain producers, so kept
flash flood watch going for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL. Did add another row of counties from Greene Co.
IL to Gasconade Co. MO and extended the whole watch to 00z
Saturday. Anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of rain can be expected in
the watch area, with locally higher amounts possible. Even over
rest of area not in flash flood watch, could see an inch or two of
rainfall over the next 24 hours. As for severe chances, with
decent instability, and lapse rates, could see severe storms
develop with main threats being large hail and damaging winds.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s and highs on
Friday will range from the low 70s far north to the mid 80s far south.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015

Precipitation is still expected to taper off Friday night and
will see cooler and drier weather for the weekend. Next chance for
rain will be Sunday night through Thursday with several rounds
expected once again on active northwest flow aloft. Highs during
the weekend will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, then moderate a bit
through the rest of the work week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2015

Complex of showers and thunderstorms will affect the metro TAF
sites over the next few hours with heavy rain accompanied by IFR
visbilities possible along with gusty northwest winds. KUIN is
likely to stay just north of most activity while KCOU will also
likely have a period of storms this evening. Still anticipating
some break late this evening/early overnight period before an
organized bout of showers/storms associated with an MCS moves
roughly along I-70. MVFR ceilings and even visibilities are likely
behind this system into Friday afternoon along with a wind shift
to the northwest.


Specifics for KSTL:

Complex of showers and thunderstorms will affect the metro TAF
sites over the next few hours with heavy rain accompanied by IFR
visbilities possible along with gusty northwest winds. Still
anticipating some break late this evening/early overnight period
before an organized bout of showers/storms associated with an MCS
moves roughly along I-70 and affect KSTL Friday morning. Lingering
showers with embedded thunder likely into early Friday afternoon.
MVFR ceilings and even visibilities are also likely behind this
system into Friday afternoon along with a wind shift to the
northwest.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
     Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-
     Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





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