Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 212330
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
530 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

Another quiet mild night is in store for the region tonight with
lows 5-10 degrees above average. One storm departs our area across
the Great Lakes while another dives south thru the 4 corners area. The
departing system will continue to drag a stratus/stratocu deck
across the northeastern portion of the CWA while the southern system
will begin to spread some high clouds across the southern FA.
Went aoa the warmest guidance tonight based on the expected cloud
cover and light westerly flow.

Miller

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

Even though surface ridge to build into region on Thursday,
another upper level shortwave to slide through region. No
precipitation is expected with it, but will see partly to mostly
cloudy conditions. Otherwise, light north winds and high
temperatures near normal in the upper 30s to mid 40s are expected.

This upper level shortwave will make very slow progression through
the region Thursday night and Friday before finally lifting out
towards the northeast Friday night. Otherwise, dry and near normal
temperatures to persist through Saturday.

Then a more robust system will slide southeast through region
Saturday night through Sunday night. Extended models keeping best
chances of precipitation just to our northeast and east, so just
kept slight chance/low end chance pops for forecast area. As for
precipitation type, looking more and more like a quick shot of a
rain/snow mix before system exits early Monday morning. As for
temperatures through the period will see highs in the mid 40s to low
50s Sunday then cool off to near normal for the rest of the extended
period.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

Main concern for the valid TAF period will be on ceiling trends.
Copious amount of predominantly broken cloud cover to the north
and west of forecast area currently. Short-term guidance suggests
these clouds streaming southeastward toward terminals overnight.
Am expecting ceilings to stay VFR with exception of KUIN. Skies
should then scatter out late tomorrow morning with light northwest
winds slowly veering to more northerly.

Specifics for KSTL:

Main concern for the valid TAF period will be on ceiling trends.
Copious amount of predominantly broken cloud cover to the north
and west of forecast area currently. Short-term guidance suggests
these clouds streaming southeastward toward terminals overnight.
Am expecting ceilings to stay VFR however and added a BKN040 group
which should then scatter out late tomorrow morning. Light
northwest winds should slowly veer to a more northerly direction
tomorrow afternoon before becoming light/variable tomorrow evening
with approach of surface anticyclone.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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