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000
FXUS63 KPAH 120450
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 06z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

With respect to the recently issued Wind Advisory for Wednesday,
added the remaining four counties in Southeast Missouri (Butler,
Wayne, Carter, and Ripley) after coordination and collaboration
with the NWS offices in Springfield Missouri and Memphis
Tennessee. The 925 mb winds are already expected to mix down a
relative fraction (owing to frictional/momentum effects) of the
50 knot winds forecast with the operational NAM-WRF runs. Even the
forecast surface winds from the NAM-WRF suggest widespread 30 to
40 knot surface winds during the advisory period.

Compared to yesterday`s package, had to expand in time and space
the coverage of thunderstorm activity across the WFO PAH forecast
area. In locations where low level lapse rates, CAPE, and shear
seemed to support stronger updrafts in isolated convection or more
organized convective activity, a mention of gusty winds or small
hail, or both were added to the gridded forecast. At this time,
based largely on the NAM-WRF families, focused the best chances
for strong storms along the I-64 corridor in Southern Illinois,
then working East-Southeast into Southwest Indiana and Northwest
Kentucky this evening. The time period between 00z and 06z (7 pm
CDT Tuesday to 1 am CDT Wednesday) should encompass any or all
strong to severe potential with this event. Attempted to delineate
the transition from pre-frontal convective activity and post frontal
rain in the gridded forecast. There is still some potential for a
small chance of mixed precipitation (rain or snow mix) on
Wednesday, but do not see it being a factor with respect to any
accumulations at all. The primary concern will be the post frontal
winds on Wednesday. the month of March is living up to its
reputation as a blustery and windy month.

Made slight adjustments (up/down 1 to 2 degrees) on
temperatures and dewpoints, blending with the NAM-WRF, and GFS
LAMP guidance for this afternoon through Thursday. Otherwise dry
conditions should prevail for the remainder of the short term part
of this forecast package.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

After the mid week system passage and resultant cool down, Friday
begins the moderation back to spring-like warmth that will continue
into the weekend, with Highs in the 60s.

Meanwhile, troffiness starts to develop and lower heights over the
course of the weekend, and a cool down commences by Sunday. The
models are noisy with their specific solutions, but the general
pattern reflection is developing troffiness over the Ohio valley,
with ridging over the western U.S., the result being a cooler/damper
trend for us from late weekend into early next week.

For now, we like the allblend straddle position of painting
basically smallish type slgt chc-chc cat pops beginning Sat night
and continuing more or less off and on thru Monday. Some ptype mix
with or change to wording on the back end remains appropriate.

60s and 40s early in 1st half of the long term forecast period
likewise cool to (generally) 50s/30s in the latter half.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Strong cold front will sweep southeast across all taf sites in the 09z
to 12z timeframe. Ahead of the front...expect areas of broken mid level
cloudiness with perhaps a few showers. Along and immediately behind the
front...a narrow band of scattered to numerous showers will occur...
with the highest concentration at the kevv/kowb sites. Some thunder is
possible...but not likely enough to include in tafs.

Behind the front...winds will increase rapidly from the northwest by
12z with gusts to 35 knots likely for a few hours. Cigs will gradually
improve to vfr by early afternoon. Winds will diminish early Wednesday
evening with some partial clearing likely...mainly at kcgi/kpah.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WIND ADVISORY from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WIND ADVISORY from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WIND ADVISORY from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...MY