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000
FXUS63 KPAH 180807
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light showers in southeast Missouri should continue to make their
way east as a weak cold front moves across and washes out over the
PAH forecast area today. The showers should mainly affect the
southern half of the area where the is a little better moisture
available. Kept pops in the slight chance category due to the
expected widely scattered nature and very light QPF amounts. By
late afternoon, models indicate showers should end as an upper
level ridge begins building in from the west. With the front
washing out, no cooler air will work its way into the area, and
temperatures this afternoon and tonight will actually be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday.

The upper level ridge will continue to build eastward through the
weekend. This will keep conditions dry through Sunday.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, and with a
return of southerly winds on Sunday, readings will reach the
middle to upper 70s, which will be 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal
normals.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave is now
forecast to bring precipitation chances into the far western
sections of our CWA by late Sunday night versus late Sunday
afternoon. Models still not in the best agreement on the track and
timing of this system. Precipitation chances are now expected to be
highest Monday and Monday night as the system tracks across the
region. Instability parameters still expected to be strong enough to
continue the mention of thunder Sunday night, Monday, and Monday
night.  On the back side of the aforementioned system,
precipitation chances may linger over the far southeast sections
of our CWA on Tuesday.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should
keep the region dry and warmer through Wednesday night. With the
approach of the next weather system, precipitation chances may begin
to increase from the west on Thursday. Long term models in terrible
agreement on the handling of this system. For example, the ECMWF
brings precipitation well into our CWA on Thursday while the GFS
keeps it dry through Thursday night. Consequently went with a
compromise and introduced POPS only over the northwest sections of
our CWA on Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the entire
long term portion of the forecast with highs topping out in the mid
to upper 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The cold front has effectively washed out to our north, and light
winds are transitioning more to a north or northeast direction
throughout the area. They may be variable through the night, and
then eventually become northeast by Friday afternoon. That should
continue through the evening as well.

A few light showers are moving northeast out of north central
Arkansas, but they will be encountering drier air as they approach
our area overnight. Would be surprised if there is any measurable
precipitation overnight. Any ceilings overnight should be aoa
10kft, but a scattered layer 5-7kft will be possible. These layers
may be in play for a good bit of the day Friday, but would expect
most areas to become clear by evening.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS