477
FXUS63 KPAH 021836
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
136 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mostly sunny conditions will continue today through
  the first half of the holiday weekend.

- More comfortable humidity levels will persist through
  Thursday, then slightly above normal temperatures and higher
  humidity can be expected for the 4th of July through the
  weekend.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Sunday
  afternoon, with an unsettled weather pattern persisting into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A relative reprieve in humidity today with dewpoints in the
lower 60s on the backside of a departing longer wave trough over
the Great Lakes region. Light winds may aid in the development
of a little bit of ground fog tonight but soundings suggest
moisture decreases with height for now so doubt it does too much
overall.

An upper level ridge over the central plains builds to the
northeast over the next 3-4 days leaving us in a dry and
seasonably hot pattern. Humidity will increase a bit with
dewpoints nudging back to around 70 degrees leading to heat
index values around 100. The probability of any rain during the
Friday-Saturday peak holiday period seems quite low. Some
shower/thundershowers start to work back into the forecast later
in the afternoon/evening Sunday with relatively weak hard to pin
down systems nudging 73-75 degree dewpoint air into scattered convection
in the afternoon and evening. Right now though there is no clear
period where there is some kind of heightened risk for severe
weather or flash flooding. PWAT values Sunday night look to bump
against 2.1" so efficient rates seem likely but Corfidi vector
orientation doesn`t really point to training storms or flooding
issues right now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period with light winds.
There is some signal for ground fog in the pre-dawn hours but
drying with height is shown in soundings and afternoon obs
trends so went more optimistic.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG