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000
FXUS63 KPAH 080520
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1120 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

High confidence low QPF event Sunday morning mainly over West KY.
Weighted the GFS/ECMWF solution heavily. The NAM appears to the
NAM with considerable increase in QPF over the other models.
Precipitation will be encountered over all the quad state. However
areas with the snow cover are not as likely to encounter freezing
rain as the column is a bit too cool over those areas. Over the
advisory area would expect the precip to start as mainly sleet
shortly after midnight then mix with snow and freezing rain toward
sunrise. By late afternoon the advisory area warms slightly above
freezing and anything that falls will be liquid. There is very
little moisture in the -10 to -20c will not get a seeder feeder
situation so snow amounts will be very limited. I can not
absolutely rule out an inch or less around Hopkinsville eastward
with light ice and sleet accumulations as well. Will adjust
wording in advisory to reflect the increase qpf/snow with the
latest guidance from WPC.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Both the GFS and ECMWF rotate another trof through the PAH FA during
the Monday-Tuesday time frame, along with a reinforcing shot of cold
air. Neither model produces more than scant QPF on the order of a
few hundredths of an inch. Will thus follow the blended model
suggestion of Monday night light qpf/slgt chance mention of snow for
the north, which was in our existing forecast and therefore offers
little/no change to the going package save for minor massage. Cold
forecast temps look good too.

After the early week cold shot, 1037-38mb Surface High pressure
system builds across lower Ohio and mid Mississippi river valleys
and holds through the mid week, then slides east by Friday. This
keeps it dry and cool before return flow southerlys offer some
warming to the profile at weeks end. This will occur ahead of the
next chance of pcpn that comes in by late day 7-day 8, where
we go ahead and introduce a slight chance mention for next Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Other than KPAH which has been in and out of MVFR cigs this
evening, all other sites remain VFR. Precip on the scope is having
a hard time reaching the ground due to dry lower levels. As the
moisture starts to saturate down over the next several hours, we
should see cigs lower to mvfr and eventually IFR. Forecast
precipitation type will likely start out as -snpl or simply some
flurries/lt snow during the early morning hours (maybe some -fzra
at KOWB).

The mid/high level moisture will exit the area during the
day on Sunday and warmer air will start moving into the region,
providing the possibility of freezing drizzle/rain through the
rest of the morning and into the early afternoon as sfc temps
remain around freezing or below. As more and more dry air
penetrates the area, any chances for precipitation should
gradually come to an end by afternoon sometime. Winds will be aob
10kts and begin as northeasterly but then shift to become
southwest by the end of the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM CST Sunday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$